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Five fantasy football wide receiver values and sleepers to target in the middle rounds of 2024 drafts. Can these wide receivers surpass their ADP expectations?
Fantasy football season is less than a month away, meaning if you haven't already, it's time to dig for fantasy draft sleepers. Hitting on top stars in the early rounds and collecting cheap fliers in the late rounds is key for success, but there's an argument to be made that the middle rounds are where you win and lose your league.
In this article, we examine some mid-round wide receivers for you to consider drafting this season. Our editors have hand-picked these specific NFL players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2024 Draft Kit.
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Christian Kirk, Jaguars - Fantasy Football Outlook
In 2022, Christian Kirk finished as WR19 in PPR, averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game. With Calvin Ridley in the mix in 2023, Kirk averaged just 12.5 fantasy points per game, which was just WR33 on a per-game basis. He showed he could be a viable number-one wide receiver in 2022, and he was rewarded as such by Trevor Lawrence. That season without Ridley, he saw 22 red zone targets which led to eight touchdowns. In 2023, Ridley was Lawrence's guy in the red zone, which lowered Kirk's red zone targets to just six last season. As a result, he scored just three touchdowns.
Christian Kirk is fast and the Jaguars have the lead 💯#JAXvsNO on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/89nUeCngbn pic.twitter.com/SQfWTMpTUg— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2023
The Jags added Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis this offseason, but neither guy is Ridley. Kirk (along with Evan Engram) will be a top target-earner in Jacksonville in 2024. As such, we should see him re-establish himself as WR1 for the Jaguars. However, with Engram's emergence in 2023 and Thomas Jr. and Davis' arrivals this offseason, there's probably a bit more target competition this season than there was in 2022. Regardless, Kirk should be considered a low-end WR2 with top-20 upside in 2024 due to his established rapport and chemistry with Lawrence.
- Adam Koffler, RotoBaller
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers - Fantasy Football Outlook
The definite WR2 in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be back in 2024. Chris Godwin looks to tally another season of over 1,000 yards, something he has accomplished for the last three seasons. Godwin's 2019 season saw the wideout break onto the scene with 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns. Fast forward to his 2021 season, where he suffered a late-season ACL tear. It took some time for Godwin to come back to form. Still, Godwin has been a productive force for the Bucs. In his 2023 season, the veteran wide receiver saw his catch rate plummet to 63.8% last season.
In his previous four seasons, Godwin possessed a catch rate of over 70%. Godwin additionally had a target share of 23.8%. Baker Mayfield took over for Tom Brady for the 2023 season, which hindered Godwin's numbers. Godwin was productive but spent less time in the slot than in previous years. The wide receiver gained 83 receptions on 130 targets, going for 1,024 yards with three total scores in 2023. New Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen is expected to move Godwin back to his slot role. Playing more in the slot will benefit Godwin, as he only played 32% of his snaps in the slot for 2023. Before 2023, Godwin was playing 50% or more in the slot.
With the move back to his natural spot, Godwin should see his touchdown numbers increase in 2024. Powerhouse Mike Evans will continue to shine in the WR1 position, running back Rachaad White is also a pass-catcher, and the Buccaneers drafted Jalen McMillan in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Mayfield is back in Tampa Bay but will look to target Godwin more in the slot. The Buccaneers are a pass-first offense. In 2023, they attempted a total of 611 passes. This trend should continue in 2024 as another season of over 1,000 yards looks to be in the cards.
- Kacey Kasem, RotoBaller
Marquise Brown, Chiefs - Fantasy Football Outlook
Former Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown agreed to a one-year deal with the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason. Brown has dealt with injuries of his own and to Cardinals starting quarterback Kyler Murray during his time in Arizona. The 26-year-old receiver has just one 1000-yard season under his belt in five years but has shown constant flashes of being an elite deep threat with his sub 4.3 speed. Second-year Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice has been the center of controversy this offseason and it is now uncertain if and how long he could be out for.
A sneak peek of what's coming to KC 👀 (via @PatrickMahomes)@Primetime_jet | @Chiefs pic.twitter.com/c0HjVBt6uD
— NFL (@NFL) April 5, 2024
Outside of Rice -- Brown will be competing for targets with Travis Kelce and rookie first-round speedster Xavier Worthy. The team has had 2 800+ yard receivers in each of Patrick Mahomes' six seasons as the starter and this should not be expected to change anytime soon. Drafting the potential top target for one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in the fifth/sixth round should be a no-brainer for fantasy players this season. Consider Brown as a potential mid-range WR2 with appealing upside.
- Saleh Awwad, RotoBaller
Diontae Johnson, Panthers - Fantasy Football Outlook
After his second mediocre season in a row, Carolina Panthers Diontae Johnson looks to return to his fantasy WR1 days in Carolina. The 27-year-old racked up 51 catches for 717 yards and five touchdowns over 17 games for the Steelers in 2023. Few receivers at his ADP will command the volume that Johnson does. With 140+ targets in three of his last four seasons, he provides a safe floor with home-run ceiling potential. Johnson could be the final puzzle piece in this improved Panthers offense needing a No. 1 receiver. The passing game has taken a jump everywhere.
Panthers head coach, Dave Canales, has produced three of the top 16 wideouts over the last two seasons (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Mike Evans). In Bryce Young's rookie season, receivers rarely consistently got open. Johnson is an excellent fit in terms of style and ability to create separation. He finished above his current ADP last season, WR36, in half-PPR points per game despite enduring the third-lowest catchable target rate in the league, with a fresh start as the clear top option ahead of Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, and Jonathan Mingo. Johnson has the chance to be a substantial value in fantasy football.
- Joel Smyth, RotoBaller
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks - Fantasy Football Outlook
It wasn't a great rookie season for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He was a part-time slot receiver who wasn't asked to do very much down the field. Per PlayerProfiler, he ranked 95th among wide receivers in average target distance (6.1 yards), 80th in air yards share (13.8%), and 63rd in yards per route run (1.33). He finished the season as the WR48. But there's still hope for JSN as the Seahawks' offense could look very different in 2024. They hired a new head coach in Mike Macdonald and a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. Grubb is new to the NFL ranks, but he was the mastermind behind two very high-powered collegiate offenses at Fresno State and Washington.
He's known for his creative play-calling and playing to his players' strengths. He's the perfect OC to unlock JSN, who excelled as a downfield threat at Ohio State. Remember, he broke out at 19 years old in 2021 with 1,606 yards on 95 receptions (16.9 yards per reception). Compare that to his rookie season when he averaged just 10 yards per reception. He'll still be competing for targets with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but JSN should be on the field a lot more in 2024.
J. S. N.
WHAT A GRAB.
📺: #SFvsSEA on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/N5H8Nc0xKc pic.twitter.com/HQZpG6eCVI— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2023
Last season, the Seahawks were top-10 in 12 personnel (two tight ends) formations on 1st down. They were also bottom-five in average depth of target as a team. Don't give up on JSN just yet with a new-look offense this season. Consider him a WR4 with some upside in full PPR formats.
- Adam Koffler, RotoBaller
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