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Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. Unfortunately, this last slate was another flop with KT getting reverse swept, and really high scoring lineups coming through with EDG, DoinB, and Kiin. Let's see where we can find angles attack the next slate. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, June 20th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from Bovada. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: T1 (-650) vs. LSB(+375)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. T1 is looking strong to start off summer (2-1) while LSB (1-2) just earned their first win in a sweep vs HLE. T1 is pretty heavy favored, and rank top five in a large majority of team statistics, while LSB ranks bottom five in the league in most team stats, excluding EGR (fifth) and HLD% (first). LSB still haven't fully convinced me that they are a playoff team, but they are moving in the right direction after showing good skirmishing and map awareness vs HLE. They will need to play even better if they plan on taking down T1. Cuzz has the third highest FB% in the league, and Teddy is once again off to an amazing start. Faker is the lowest on the team in terms of KP%, sitting at 58%. Everyone else sits at above 65%. This matchup should revolve around rift herald skirmishes and dragon teamfights. I expect a bloodier matchup too, as T1 ranks third in CKPM while LSB ranks fourth.
T1 is playing at a more aggressive pace than last year, and part of that has to do with the early game snowball meta. This lineup iteration for T1 has settled in and ranks first in the LCK in EGR and fourth in MLR. LSB ranks fifth in EGR and seventh in MLR. LSB's last series vs HLE taught me HLE is far worse this split than last, and look like they are running out of gas. HLE have good players but their macro and cohesiveness has just been horrendous this split. This is a key matchup for LSB that can show us what they are really made of. I think the last matchup helps build some momentum, but I think even if they form an early game lead vs T1, T1 can find a fight/engage to come back in the mid to late game. To me, they are looking like the number one team in the LCK so far this split. I think LSB are capable of winning a game, but I love what T1 have showed us so far this split, so I'll play a lot of T1 primary stacks in hopes of a bloody 2-0 sweep.
Top T1 plays: ALL, by preference (Teddy, Canna, Keria, Cuzz, Faker)
7:00 AM: HLE (-275) vs. BRO (+200)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. After HLE got smacked around by LSB, I learned my lesson, but it doesn't look like the books have. These odds are very similar to HLE's last time out vs LSB. BRO actually looked improved from last split, while HLE are trending in the opposite direction. I expect BRO(1-2 and 3-4 in games) cohesive teamplay and bot lane focused style to allow them to overcome HLE(0-3 and 0-6 in games.)
This matchup should have both teams coming in at lower ownership on this slate, due to the naturally slower pace that the LCK plays at. HLE rank first in CKPM and BRO rank dead last. However, BRO hold some really high team KP% numbers, while HLE seem to choose fights even when they don't have an ideal setup. HLE was getting caught in rotations, dying across the map, and not looking very good at all. I don't expect BRO to opt into bad fights as much as HLE, but they can capitalize off HLE's mistakes based on the team compositions we've been seeing from BRO this split. As far as the mid lane, we know Chovy is the strongest point of this HLE team, but Lava looks like a whole new player compared to last split, and should be able to not fall too far behind Chovy and still have impact in this series.
HLE have the talent to compete vs BRO but not the team or macro play. BRO have the team play and cohesion to make up for the lack of superstar talent on this roster. Give me the improved BRO to handle HLE in 2-1 fashion, cotinuning HLE's struggles, and making them a decent option for secondary stacks and one offs. HLE steal a game off the back of Chovy(get this man a new team,) but I'll sprinkle in some primary BRO stacks in case they pop off and sweep a bad HLE squad.
Top BRO plays: by preference (TEAM, Hena, Lava, Delight)
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: JDG (-650) vs. LGD (+400)
This matchup should provide some fireworks, as both these squads like to brawl. JDG ranks second in CKPM while LGD ranks third, and both teams focusing on heavy skirmishing and teamfighting over objectives. JDG is coming off a tough loss to the red hot LNG, while LGD got reverse swept by BLG last time out. JDG is large favorites in this one, and are looking to bounceback vs LGD, who showed they still have some work to do in the mid/late game to ensure they can close out games in the future. JDG have the advantage in every position, but since this could be a really bloody affair, I will sprinkle a couple of LGD lineups.
The pivotal matchup in this series is in the jungle/top side of the map. Shad0w is the team leader in KP% and is heavily involved in LGD's skirmishes and playmaking. JDG's Kanavi is the key cog of this team, as he will draw help from his laners to ensure he comes out on top in his matchup. Zoom also has another glaring advantage in this match, up against the aggressive Garvey in his lane. JDG aren't necessarily at the same level of dominance from their 2019-2020 run, but they still have the same roster to achieve that form once more. Yagao is playing the best league I've seen from him in a while, has a tough matchup vs Xiye, and is a shining spot in their wins. Give me Yagao and Kanavi to come out on top in this heavy skirmish early game meta. JDG win 2-0, in a good bounceback spot vs a team that I think people are going to be let down by as the split continues. I love them as a primary stack tomorrow, however you can fit them.
Top JDG plays: ALL, by preference(Kanavi, Yagao, Zoom, Loken, Lvmao)
5:00 AM: SN (-275) vs. BLG (+200)
Right off the bat I think the odds in this matchup should be closer. SN have not looked like the same team with ON replacing Swordart, and just found their first win of the split vs UP. BLG found their first win of the split in bloody fashion vs LGD, reverse sweeping. BLG rank dead last in CKPM this split, while SN rank middle of the pack, so I will only be having secondary stacks from this match. Both bot lanes shined in their most recent victories, but I think this matchup boils down to which top side of the map cultivates a lead. BLG's Biubiu and Weiwei come from the Suning system, so there is definitely a little extra motivation to take down their former org tomorrow.
These teams are some of the most committed at trying to get their top lane ahead. This is an interesting matchup because both top laners attract heavy attention and resources, while both junglers aren't really carry focused, and play for their lanes. The mid lane matchup is also crucial, and so far I give the edge to Zeka this split, who looks improved and comfortable in this meta. Bot lanes are even for me, as Huanfeng is the better ADC but Ppgod has a higher ceiling than ON in my opinion. I have a feeling this one goes three games. If that's the case, I'll be building secondary stacks, mainly combos of SoFm/Bin or Weiwei/Biubiu, from this match, or completely fading it. Give me BLG to win 2-1 in this one, making this a solid FADE candidate for me, due to each team not being too bloody in losses.
Top BLG plays: FADE, or two BLG stacks at max, by preference(WeiWei/BiuBiu, BiuBiu/Zeka, Weiwei/Zeka)
7:00 AM: RNG (-195) vs. LNG (+155)
The last series of the day is a banger, with the scorching, first place LNG(4-0 and 8-3 in games) facing off against LPL and MSI champs RNG, coming off a tough 2-1 loss vs the former RNG roster members of OMG. RNG look like they are experiencing a little bit of championship hangover, coming out a little more flat than usual vs OMG. LNG have taken down IG, V5, LDG, and FPX(could've very well been swept.) LNG definitely are improved from last split, and have arguably their toughest challenge up to this point. RNG did lose but they are definitely not going to be happy and are still the favorites to win the LPL.
I like LNG in this matchup to keep rolling and toppling LCK titans along the way. LNG is showing an aggressive, proactive playstyle all around the map that they didn't show at all last split. RNG will have trouble matching the aggression, just like they did vs OMG. The most pivotal matchup for me is the top lane, and is the reason LNG is off to such an amazing start. Ale is fearless and playing all the carries vs the best top laners in the world, and finding success. Last split, M1kuya was the main top lane for LNG, and was on weakside Gnar duty most of his gaems. Ale brings a whole new dynamic to the roster, as he can form leads and create pressure in his lane. Tarzan and Icon's 2v2 skirmishing and synergy has also definitely improved, so it is no longer the Light and Lwandy show from this squad. LNG with a huge 2-0 upset win here.
Top LNG plays: ALL, by preference(Icon, Tarzan, Light, Ale, Lwandy)
Summary
- TLDR: T1 2-0 bloody sweep, BRO 2-1 upset but slower series, JDG 2-0 bounce back spot and crush, BLG upset 2-1, RED HOT LNG 2-0. Another great slate for multi-entry, but I will be prioritizing LNG/T1/JDG in that order.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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