X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Contact Rate Risers and Fallers: Week 3

Pierre Camus looks at some early fantasy baseball risers and fallers in the contact rate category to determine who may be worth buying or selling for 2017.

Welcome, fellow RotoBallers! We now have a decent enough sample size in the early MLB season to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak.

Each week we will look at a few players on each side and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.

Top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can be found using RotoBaller's exclusive tool, which is part of our Premium MLB package.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Contact Rate Risers

Jose Peraza (2B/SS, CIN) 97.1% Contact% - last seven days

Keon Broxton aside, Peraza was my favorite breakout candidate of the preseason. In a limited sample of 241 at-bats, he showed elite speed and hit .324 as a rookie. He got off to a slow start, hitting .227 in the first week, but put together a six-game hit streak. A pair of 0-fers dropped his average again, but his .250 BABIP suggests that he's getting unlucky despite such a high contact rate. Peraza has the wheels to turn some slow rollers into infield base hits and is bound to benefit from that high contact rate before long. It also doesn't hurt that he finally took his first walk of the season on Tuesday night...

J.J. Hardy (SS, BAL) 96.3% Contact% - last seven days

The pop seems to have left Hardy's bat a couple of years ago. After three straight seasons hitting over 20 home runs from 2011-2013, he has stayed in single digits each of the last three. He isn't turning into much of a contact hitter, however, a la Mark Reynolds. His recent contact surge isn't accompanied by a high on-base percentage either. He has two hits in his last 21 at-bats with just one walk. It turns out Hardy has simply found a way to inflate his infield fly ball rate to 27.3%, which is a very bad sign. Hardy is proof that all contact isn't good contact - ignore as usual in fantasy leagues.

Robbie Grossman (OF, MIN) 90.6% Contact% - last seven days

Grossman is a case where the increased contact rate is supported by strong plate discipline all around. He has an 11/6 BB/K rate and is drawing a walk in one-fourth of his plate appearances. In terms of average, his .423 BABIP is bound to come down to earth, but there are some positive signs early on that Grossman could play out as a strong value play in leagues that roster four or five outfielders. He has bounced around four different organizations over the years, but at 27 years old, he is still in his prime and could be figuring things out finally.

Nori Aoki (OF, HOU) 93.3% Contact% - last seven days

Aoki is a surprising name here, mainly because it's surprising that he's even playing this much. The Astros spent big bucks to solidify their lineup, part of which included signing Josh Reddick to a $52 million contract. Instead it has been Aoki, signed for the bargain price of $5.5 million on a one-year deal, who has been more productive fantasy-wise. Aoki is known for his glove, but also has a .353 OBP in his Major League career. At age 35, his days of 20+ SB are over, but he is proving he can still put up good averages. It may be noteworthy for owners in NL-only leagues that he put together three consecutive two-hit games, including a homer and four RBI last week.

 

Contact Rate Fallers

Odubel Herrera (OF, PHI) 62.5% Contact% - last seven days

Herrera has been slow to help fantasy owners so far with just one homer and one steal on the year. His slash line looks pretty good so far, other than the lack of power (.275/.383/.350). He's walking on nearly 15% of his plate appearances, which should lead to more stolen base attempts than it has. Regardless, Herrera's contact rate is dipping to the point that he is in the bottom 20 among all qualified hitters this past week. An upcoming series against the Mets' power pitchers won't help either. If you own him in a 10 or 12-team league, don't be bashful about sitting him out for a spell - I know I am.

Paul Goldschmidt (1B, ARI) 65.9% Contact% - last seven days

Goldy started out strong with two HR, eight RBI, and two SB in the first seven games, but in the last seven he's got no extra base hits, one run and one run batted in. He's drawing walks at a good clip, giving him a wOBA of .376 on the season but a couple of hitless nights have dragged his numbers down. He's had a couple more swings and misses lately, but the contact he is making is still fine overall. Let's face it, you have no business being concerned about him in the first place, so nothing to see here. Move along.

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD) 66.7% Contact% - last seven days

For the early season, Grandal's contact rate on swings sits just below league average at 78.9%, but it's taken a dive recently. Grandal has struck out in seven of his last 17 AB with one extra base hit and no RBI in the last week. He had the day off on Tuesday, so maybe a bit of rest will get him back on track. A three-game slate in the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field could mark a turning point, so no need to take him out of your lineup, especially at such a thin position as catcher.

Wil Myers (1B, SD) 69.6% Contact% - last seven days

Myers has started the season swinging away like a bat out of hell. He is bound to cool off at some point, but it hasn't happened just yet. As of this writing, Myers is still riding an eight-game hitting streak and slashing .368/.383/.684. A three-strikeout game against the Braves on Monday is the main culprit for his declining contact percentage, but Myers' lack of plate discipline hasn't caught up to him in a way that affects his fantasy value. Aside from his impressive average, Myers has driven in nine and scored 10 times. It might be concerning that he's only drawn one walk in 14 games, compared to 12 K. Hey, if you're complaining about the way he's producing, you don't deserve to have him on your squad in the first place.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF