X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Hunter Dozier and Christian Walker

Every season seems to have a couple of players emerge from nowhere to post fantasy-relevant lines in April. Most of them fade back into the abyss, but a few of them stick around to produce value for the entire season and beyond.

In 2019, Hunter Dozier and Christian Walker are surely among the names who have appeared out of nowhere. Neither player received much attention in draft season, but both are currently sporting seven homers and a batting average north of .320. One of them appears to have what it takes to post a solid season, while the other is likely to be on waivers again by July.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their expected value based on their ownership. For example, a pitcher who is 50% Owned can be a Champ if they should be owned in 75% of leagues (underowned and undervalued). The same pitcher could be a Chump if they're owned in 100% of leagues (overowned and overvalued). All ownership rates are from Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise noted. Let's take a closer look at Dozier and Walker, shall we?

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Hunter Dozier (1B/3B, KC)

51% Owned

At age 27, nobody saw Dozier's .324/.430/.676 with seven homers in 86 April PAs coming. His 2018 stat line was terrible (.229/.278/.395 with 11 HR in 388 PAs), and the 2019 Royals are nobody's idea of a powerhouse.

A lot of Dozier's peripherals scream that regression is coming. His .333 BABIP doesn't seem that high at first glance, but it makes for a strange pairing with his 49.1% fly ball rate. He hasn't hit a single pop-up yet despite all of those fly balls but has no particular history of avoiding infield flies. When he starts popping out occasionally, there will be downward pressure on his overall BABIP.

That said, his grounders could be an even bigger issue. His .294 BABIP on ground balls is supported by premium exit velocity (91.7 mph) and above average wheels (27.7 ft./sec Statcast Sprint), but he pulls a lot of worm killers (70.6%). Dozier hasn't faced many shifts (17 of 38 opportunities) and has fared well in his small sample (.438 batting average), but any hitter pulling 70% of their ground balls is going to be shifted. Assuming the shift works as well as it usually does, it wouldn't be surprising if Dozier's BABIP on ground balls was closer to .200 than .300 by season's end.

Likewise, Dozier has no history of big-time power numbers. His 25.9% HR/FB is backed by strong average airborne exit velocity (96.2 mph), but his 14.5% rate of Brls/BBE is more above average than elite at this stage of the season. Furthermore, his contact quality metrics were significantly worse last season (93.7 mph, 10.6% Brls/BBE). Most problematically, only two of his seven homers have come in his pitcher-friendly home park despite having 46 of 86 PAs there. If Dozier can't tame Kauffman Stadium, he can't be a true power guy.

Dozier has an extensive minor league track record that also argues against his fantasy relevance. He reached Double-A Northwest Arkansas in 2014 and slashed a disappointing .209/.303/.312 with four homers and three steals over 267 PAs. He repeated the level in 2015, but the only number that really increased was his total PAs (.213/.281/.349 with 12 HR and six steals over 523 PAs). He struck out far too often both seasons (26.2% and 28.9%, respectively) and didn't have the power to make up for it.

Dozier improved substantially in 2016. He slashed .305/.400/.642 with eight homers and four steals over 110 PAs for Northwest Arkansas, earning a shot at Triple-A Omaha. There, he hit .294/.357/.506 with 15 HR and three steals over 434 PAs. He reigned in the strikeouts at both levels (20.9% K-rate at Double-A, 23% at Triple-A), but the combined total of 23 long balls barely moves the needle in fantasy. Omaha is also an extremely hitter-friendly, Pacific Coast League venue that boosted HR production by about 30% from 2014-2016. You should probably take his numbers there with a grain of salt.

A strained oblique and broken hamate bone limited Dozier to just 129 PAs across three levels in 2017, and his best K% at any stop was 38.5%. The elevated K% returned in 2018 with Omaha, as a 30.1% K% limited Dozier to a .254/.385/.339 line over 143 PAs before his big league call-up.

To be fair, Dozier's plate discipline has been much better in 2019 (15.1% walk rate, 19.8% K%). His 23.8% chase rate and 8.4 SwStr% also support his metrics to date. Still, this is a guy who can't field, seems vulnerable to the shift, doesn't steal bases, and plays for a punchless team in a pitcher's park. He is probably not a long-term fantasy solution.

Verdict: Chump (based on 51% ownership rate)

 

Christian Walker (1B, ARI)

64% Owned

Walker has seized the opportunity created by Jake Lamb's trip to the IL, slashing .329/.393/.684 with seven homers in 84 PAs thus far. Unlike Dozier, the 28-year-old's MiLB history and Statcast metrics provide more optimism that the power is real. Unfortunately, his batting average is likely to end up in Joey Gallo territory.

Let's address the positive side of the ledger first. Walker probably won't sustain his 35% HR/FB over a full season because nobody does, but his average airborne exit velocity (99.6 mph) and rate of Brls/BBE (20.4%) are both elite. His 39.2% FB% is also strong with some potential for growth, allowing him to make the most of his raw power.

Walker first reached Double-A Bowie as Orioles property way back in 2013, but he wasn't good (.242/.319/.323 with no homers in 69 PAs). He was better in 2014, slashing .301/.367/.516 with 20 HR in 411 PAs for Bowie before hitting .259/.335/.428 with six big flies over 188 PAs for Triple-A Norfolk. He regressed in 2015 (.257/.324/.423 with 18 HR in 592 PAs) and had an almost identical season in 2016 (.264/.321/.437 with 18 HR in 552 PAs), convincing the Orioles that he was nothing more than organizational depth.

Walker found himself in the Arizona organization for 2017, and the light bulb went on. He slashed .309/.382/.597 with 32 HR in 592 PAs for Triple-A Reno and nearly matched those numbers on a rate basis in 2018 (.299/.354/.568 with 18 HR in 359 PAs). Reno is another PCL bandbox, but it inflates average (1.138 park factor from 2014-16) more than homers (1.026). These two MiLB campaigns, plus outstanding Statcast metrics, suggest that Walker can stick as a major leaguer.

Unfortunately, his .409 BABIP will not stick. His 70% Pull rate on ground balls screams "shift me!," but opposing managers haven't really done so yet (10 PAs against it in 44 opportunities). Walker is hitting .100 against the shift this year, so more are inevitable. Walker hits his ground balls hard (91.3 mph average exit velocity), but the shift is likely to cut his .400 BABIP on ground balls in half or more. Similarly, his .818 BABIP on line drives seems likely to regress somewhat moving forward.

Walker is also striking out too much, as his ugly 29.8 K% is completely supported by his average chase rate (30.7%) and awful 16.7 SwStr%. He has enough pop to still work his fair share of walks (9.5 BB% thus far), and he actually posted better K% rates on the farm. Still, an elevated strikeout rate and BABIP risk mean that Walker will be lucky to hit .250 over a full season.

Walker has the requisite skills to hit 30 big league long balls, so he should be owned in most fantasy formats. However, do not underestimate his batting average downside based on his hot start. It's entirely possible that he's a poor fit for your roster even if he should be owned by somebody.

Verdict: Champ (based on 64% ownership rate)

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Tee Higgins3 hours ago

Not Concerned About Contract Situation
Jeff Skinner3 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal In Overtime
Devon Levi3 hours ago

Earns Victory In NHL Debut
A.J. Puk5 hours ago

Picks Up Save For Marlins Friday
Rhys Hoskins5 hours ago

Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery
Nick Solak5 hours ago

Mariners Acquire Nick Solak From Reds
Justin Verlander5 hours ago

Does Some Throwing On Friday
Justin Verlander6 hours ago

Does Some Light Throwing
Luis Urías6 hours ago

Luis Urias Reportedly Heading To Injured List
Joey Wiemer6 hours ago

Reportedly Will Be Called Up
Anthony Rendon6 hours ago

Being Investigated By MLB
Willson Contreras7 hours ago

Receives Good News On Friday
Seattle Seahawks8 hours ago

Ryan Neal Becomes Free Agent
Pharaoh Brown8 hours ago

Joins Colts
Darrynton Evans8 hours ago

To Meet With Colts
Laquon Treadwell8 hours ago

Working Out For Cowboys
Zach Collins8 hours ago

Out Against Golden State
De'Andre Hunter8 hours ago

Out With A Knee Injury On Friday
Oscar Gonzalez8 hours ago

Starting On Friday
Obi Toppin8 hours ago

Will Start Against The Cavs
Jarrett Allen9 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Nelson Cruz9 hours ago

Batting Cleanup On Friday
Mike Moustakas9 hours ago

Remains Out Again
Michael Brantley9 hours ago

Takes Batting Practice
Andrew Vaughn9 hours ago

Sitting On Friday
Gavin Sheets11 hours ago

Oscar Colas Starting On Friday
Paul Sewald11 hours ago

Picks Up Win On Opening Day
Garrett Whitlock11 hours ago

Making Rehab Start Friday
Josh Rojas11 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Against Dodgers
Corey Julks11 hours ago

Making MLB Debut Against White Sox
Bryan Reynolds12 hours ago

Opt-Out Clause The Sticking Point For Bryan Reynolds Extension
Portland Trail Blazers12 hours ago

LaMarcus Aldridge Officially Retires From The NBA
Corbin Carroll12 hours ago

Hitting Fifth Against Right-Hander
Jamal Murray12 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Phoenix
Nikola Jokic12 hours ago

Could Miss His Second Consecutive Game
Kenyon Martin12 hours ago

Jr. Uncertain To Play Against Detroit
Tobias Harris12 hours ago

Could Miss Friday's Game Against Toronto
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander12 hours ago

Upgraded To Questionable On Friday
Al Horford12 hours ago

Uncertain To Suit Up On Friday
Jaylen Brown12 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable With Lower-Back Pain
Jayson Tatum12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Against Utah
Kelly Olynyk12 hours ago

Is Available Against Boston On Friday
De'Andre Hunter12 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Trayveon Williams14 hours ago

Bengals Have High Hopes For Trayveon Williams
Joe Burrow15 hours ago

Bengals Begin Extension Discussions With Joe Burrow
Mac Jones15 hours ago

Bill Belichick Still Non-Committal On Mac Jones
Sammy Blais16 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Cam Talbot16 hours ago

Makes A Winning Return
Matthew Beniers17 hours ago

Logs Two Points Against Anaheim
Stuart Skinner17 hours ago

Grabs A 43-Save Shutout
Tristan Jarry17 hours ago

Records His Second Shutout
Matthew Tkachuk17 hours ago

Rolls To Four Points Versus Montreal
T.J. Oshie17 hours ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury
Mikey Anderson17 hours ago

Injured On First Shift Thursday
CJ McCollum18 hours ago

Drops 23 Points In Easy Win Over Denver
Jamal Murray18 hours ago

Salvages Solid Performance In Loss
Brandon Ingram18 hours ago

Secures A Triple-Double Against Denver
Jaylen Brown18 hours ago

Collects Another 30-Point Game
Jayson Tatum18 hours ago

Drops 40 Points In Blowout Win
Naz Reid18 hours ago

Set To Miss Significant Amount Of Time
Linus Ullmark1 day ago

Allows One Goal In Overtime Victory
David Pastrnak1 day ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal
Baltimore Ravens1 day ago

Ravens Have Been Active In Receiver Market
Baker Mayfield1 day ago

Kyle Trask To Compete In Training Camp
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

Broncos Could Still Trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins1 day ago

To Stay With Cardinals?
Odell Beckham Jr.1 day ago

Jets The Most Likely Landing Spot For Odell Beckham Jr.
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Panthers Not Settled On One QB For No. 1 Pick
Lamar Jackson1 day ago

Not Seeking Fully Guaranteed Deal
Nathan Peterman1 day ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Ryan Lindgren1 day ago

A Game-Time Decision Against New Jersey
Seth Jones1 day ago

Expects To Play Thursday
David Savard1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Kirby Dach1 day ago

Set To Miss At Least One Week
Adam Boqvist2 days ago

Not Expected To Play Thursday
Matt Grzelcyk2 days ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Michael Hutchinson2 days ago

Tending Twine Against Boston Thursday
Stuart Skinner2 days ago

Gets The Nod For Edmonton Thursday
Petr Mrazek2 days ago

Between The Pipes Versus Blues
Dre Miller2 days ago

Kendre Miller Ahead Of Schedule
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Bills Re-Sign Jordan Phillips
Las Vegas Raiders2 days ago

Alex Bars Returns To Raiders On One-Year Deal
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Johnathan Hankins Re-Signs With Cowboys
NFL2 days ago

Wanya Morris Getting Close To 100%
Brendon Todd3 days ago

Has Success At TPC San Antonio
Ben Martin3 days ago

Has Value At TPC San Antonio
Nick Taylor3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Valero
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sleeper Option At TPC San Antonio
Chris Kirk3 days ago

A Good Option At The Valero Texas Open
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

Loves Playing TPC San Antonio
Will Gordon3 days ago

Offers A Wild-Card Option At Valero
Cam Davis3 days ago

Can Keep His Current Form At TPC San Antonio
Mark Hubbard3 days ago

A Low-Risk Value Option At Valero
Tyler Duncan3 days ago

Start Tyler Duncan At TPC San Antonio
Emiliano Grillo3 days ago

Not Recommended At Valero
Patrick Rodgers3 days ago

Don't Give Patrick Rodgers A Shot At Valero
Adam Schenk3 days ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore3 days ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger3 days ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery3 days ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners3 days ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR4 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric4 days ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera5 days ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen5 days ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos5 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm5 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee5 days ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani5 days ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron5 days ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF