RADIO
A huge congrats to my RotoBaller colleague Spencer Aguiar and any of you who were on Stephan Jaeger at around 50-1 last week in Houston. I believe that's three outright winners for Spence this year! A prolific winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Jaeger nabbed his first-ever PGA Tour victory by holding off none other than Scottie Scheffler.
We stay in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open, an event that often provides a fairly stiff test and will serve as the final warm-up before 2024's first major championship.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2024 Valero Texas Open
With the Masters looming on the horizon next week, it would be fairly easy to let this week's Valero Texas Open slide down our priority list. However, I think that would be a mistake, as the Valero consistently produces an interesting event that contains intriguing storylines.
For years, it was the Houston Open that preceded the year's first major, but the Valero Texas Open has held this spot on the schedule since 2019. While last year's edition was extremely light on starpower, the 2024 renewal contains plenty of big guns. Likely due to the absence of the Match Play on this year's schedule, many players that will be in action at Augusta National next week will get their final warm-up in San Antonio.
Two-time Valero champion Corey Conners will defend his title against a group that includes Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Ludvig Aberg, and several other top stars. Don't forget...this event also serves as the last chance for entry into next week's Masters for players that are not already qualified!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Par 72 - 7,438 Yards, Greens: Champion Bermuda (Poa Overseed), Designed By: Greg Norman
Opened in 2010, this Pete Dye/Greg Norman design (with an assist from Sergio Garcia) immediately found its way into the PGA Tour rotation and has hosted this event since it opened. Norman incorporated the natural terrain to create a layout that's long and tough.
Its length definitely gives a bump to the bombers, though we have seen precise ball-strikers thrive here in recent years due to course conditions. The Par-5's are no picnic, as all four play almost 600 yards and don't yield the number of birdies and eagles that we normally see on the Tour.
The wind is always a huge factor at TPC San Antonio, as is intended with the design. It's somewhat of a fool's errand trying to predict the weather, especially wind, but it's worth keeping an eye on the forecast for any possible tee-time draw advantage, and also worth noting that the PGA Tour has elected to water greens when heavy winds have been forecasted in the past. The big takeaway this week is: ball striking, ball striking, and more ball striking.
Recent Valero Texas Open Winners
- 2023: Corey Conners (-15)
- 2022: J.J. Spaun (-13)
- 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- 2020: Canceled - COVID
- 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
The Horse
Corey Conners
Conners experienced a truly life-changing week in 2019 when he Monday qualified for the Valero and went on to win the tournament and earn entry into the Masters. The Canadian pulled off the Texas Two-Step last year, when he claimed his second Valero Texas Open title with a score of 15-under for the week.
It's no surprise that his 69.50 career scoring average in this event is the best among this week's entrants that have at least two Valero starts. Conners will look to defend his title this week, and his ball-striking metrics indicate that's a very real possibility. While his 2024 results haven't been particularly high end due to his spotty short game, he's remained on point from T2G, gaining at 4.5 strokes T2G in each of his last four starts.
The Ponies
Hideki Matsuyama
It's tough to consider Hideki's course history at TPC San Antonio "elite", as he's gone T15-WD-T30 in just three career Valero starts. However, he's shown enough in those outings - at least two of which he was battling injuries - for me to slot him in as a "Pony" selection this week.
A lightning bolt of a win at Riviera - thanks to an epic final-round 62 - seems to have sparked something in the legendary Japanese ball striker. Since that Genesis victory, Matsuyama has been dialed, gaining a combined 17.9 strokes from T2G in his two subsequent starts. He comes into the Valero on the heels of a T6 at THE PLAYERS in what was his most crisp ball-striking outing of the year (+14.2 SG: T2G, +4.6 SG: OTT, +6.5 SG: APP). This layout has long been a ball-strikers paradise and perhaps no one outside of Scottie Scheffler is hitting the ball as well as Hideki at the moment.
Byeong Hun An
How should we evaluate Benny An? Is he the golfer that we last saw shooting a second-round 80 at THE PLAYERS or the one that had racked up a pair of top-five finishes and a top-10 across his seven 2024 starts prior to coming unglued at TPC Sawgrass?
My instincts tell me he's closer to the latter at the moment and I'm willing to chalk the missed cut at THE PLAYERS - which came after an opening-round 69, by the way - up to a devilish course getting the better of someone for a single round. As mentioned, his output this year has been very encouraging, as An had gained strokes T2G and logged top-25s in three straight starts before the wheels came off at Sawgrass.
His track record a TPC San Antonio also falls into the "positives" category, as he's bookended a missed cut with a T6 and a T7 across his last three Valero Texas Open starts. An has long been the sort of ball-striking extraordinaire that can excel on this layout and his putting has improved enough (he's gained strokes on the greens in six of eight 2024 starts) to put him in serious consideration this week.
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Lucas Glover
All of us that play PGA DFS have our own guys that we just can't seem to get right. While I was on board for one of his wins back in the fall, my track record with Lucas Glover is, at least in my mind, spotty at best.
Putting those personal biases aside, it's hard not to like The Glove in San Antonio this week. His Valero track record is rock solid and includes four consecutive made cuts with a top-five finish and a pair of additional top-20 results since 2019. It's not surprising, as this layout that rewards tee-to-green excellence suits the veteran's strengths perfectly.
His form heading into this year's edition is good, not great. The magic conjured by a late-2023 switch to a broomstick putter that led to back-to-back victories in August appears to have evaporated. Though he's gained strokes with the irons in each of his six most recent outings, Glover has lost strokes putting in five of those starts. I'm not overly concerned about his putting relapse this week, however, as the Valero has historically been kind to those that thrive from tee-to-green but struggle once arriving there.
Ryan Moore
A blast from the past! I can't believe I'm writing up Ryan Moore in the year 2024...but here we are. After amassing one of the most impressive amateur careers in history, Moore has been able to put together a rock-solid pro career, though it's probably fair to say he's fallen short of the expectations many had for him.
Injuries and a self-admitted dwindling desire have wreaked havoc on his career in recent years. Moore has often disappeared for large stretches altogether or played a puzzling schedule. However, he's resurfaced over the past six months, stealthily logging a pair of top-10 finishes in the fall at Bermuda and Sea Island.
Recently, the veteran has quietly caught fire in the month of March, gaining an average of 6.56 strokes on Approach over his last three starts. The sharp ball-striking has resulted in strong finishes, including a T5 at the Valspar. The combination of his recent spike performance, coupled with a Valero resume that includes three top-10 finishes, makes him an intriguing dark horse play this week.
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