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Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Daniel Berger appeared to be en route to a dominant victory at the Honda Classic but opened the door for the rest of the field with a horrible start to his final round. Open Champion, Shane Lowry, then looked to have the tournament in hand, before scuffling pro Sepp Straka came seemingly out of nowhere to birdie the 72nd-hole and walk away with a surprising win, his first on the PGA Tour.
After a surprising finale at PGA National, we stay in Florida for one of the best events on the PGA Tour schedule...the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Unfortunately, we see some events fall on hard times after a beloved host passes away, as has been the case with tournaments built around the drawing power of legends like Byron Nelson, Bing Crosby, and Bob Hope. It's great to see that nearly six years after the death of Arnold Palmer, his annual Invitational at Bay Hill is still going strong.
In addition to the huge amount of respect that Mr. Palmer still demands in the golf world, the API has been helped by the PGA Tour making it an "elevated status" event, which translates to a huge purse, a smaller-than-normal number of entrants, and a three-year exemption to the winner. It's working, as half of the world's top-10 ranked players will be in attendance this week.
With golfers like Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Viktor Hovland teeing it up, this event shouldn't be short on drama. But perhaps the most intriguing storyline is that of defending API champion, Bryson DeChambeau, who has been both sidelined with an injury and the center of heavy speculation concerning a potential break-away golf league. DeChambeau has released a statement reinforcing his commitment to the PGA Tour, but his outlook for his API defense is certainly hazy due to the unknown extent of his injuries.
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The Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Par 72 - 7,466 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Designed By: Dick Wilson & Joe Lee (Renovations by Arnold Palmer)
Arnold Palmer fell in love with this course over 50 years ago and it still holds up in the modern era. Like lots of courses we see during the Florida Swing, water and sand are prominent at Bay Hill. It's long at just over 7,400 yards, with some tee shots requiring lay-ups and a fairly penal rough guarding the fairways.
While Bryson DeChambeau's victory last year reminds us that length is always a huge advantage, this is, without doubt, a second-shot golf course and those approaches often require longer irons than we normally see on the PGA Tour schedule. One of the reasons Tiger Woods has dominated at Bay Hill throughout the years is his phenomenal iron game from 200-plus yards out. We usually see this tournament play as one of the 10-most difficult courses on the Tour schedule, but while it's hard, it is still possible for golfers to go low here.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent API Winners
- 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
- 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
- 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
- 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
- 2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
Event Notes
- Bryson DeChambeau led the field in both Driving Distance & SG: Off The Tee en route to victory last year. He was just the second player since 1983 to lead the field in Driving Distance and win.
- DeChambeau was the first American player to win the API since 2015.
- On an average week on the PGA Tour, players will hit around 22% of their approach shots from over 200 yards. That number climbs to nearly 30% at Bay Hill.
- The API is an "elevated status" event. 120-player field with top-65 and ties making the 36-hole cut. The winner will receive a three-year PGA Tour exemption rather than the standard two years.
The Horse
Matt Fitzpatrick
Notable Course History: T10 (2021), T9 ('20), 2nd ('19), T13 ('17)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
From a style perspective, Matt Fitzpatrick is basically the total opposite of last year's API winner, Bryson DeChambeau. Fitzpatrick is anything but a bomber, but his finesse-geared game has been extremely effective on this Bay Hill layout.
He's run off three straight top-10 finishes in this event with a runner-up result two years ago standing out as the highlight. The Englishman's mastery of fast Bermuda greens has been key to his Bay Hill success. He grades out third among this week's entrants in career SG: Putting at Bay Hill and seventh in overall Bermuda putting over his last 24 total rounds.
Fitzpatrick was forced to withdraw from the Genesis Invitational a couple of weeks ago with a non-Covid related illness, but let's not forget the type of form he's displayed recently both internationally and domestically. Fitz won the Andalucia Masters in October and followed with a runner-up finish at the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai in November. In his two U.S. outings this year at Pebble Beach and Phoenix, he's scored top-10 results in each and gained over 20 combined strokes total.
Proving that there's more than one way to skin a cat, the light-hitting Englishman shockingly grades out first in this week's API field in SG: Par-5s over the last 24 rounds. He'll face four this week at Bay Hill and performing well on the Par-5s has always been a key ingredient to success in the API.
The Ponies
Rory McIlroy
Notable Course History: T10 ('21), T5 ('20), T6 ('19), Win ('18), T4 ('17)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
It's fair to wonder just how negatively impacted by the COVID-19 layoff Rory McIlroy really was, as prior to the break forced by the global pandemic he was playing some of his best golf in years, but came out of it playing some of his worst. After a well-documented slump during which he went as far as bringing in swing doctor, Pete Cowen, for a time, McIlroy did finally manage to shake the post-COVID funk with a pair of wins last year at the Wells Fargo and the CJ Cup.
I suppose those 2021 wins say a lot about what a true enigma McIlroy is, as they could both be categorized as unexpected, but also as unsurprising because c'mon, Rory is so abundantly gifted that it's never truly surprising to see him win any golf tournament.
He won't sneak up on anyone this week, as the API is one of those events where we always expect him to play well. McIlroy has been an annual mainstay at the top of the leaderboard at Bay Hill, winning this event in 2018 and bookending that victory with four additional top-10 results since 2017. He leads this week's field in both career scoring average in the API (70.04) and average SG: Total per round (2.51).
Bryson DeChambeau
Notable Course History: Win ('21), 4th ('20), T46 ('19), 2nd ('18)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Speaking of enigmas...we never really know what we're going to get with Bryson DeChambeau. That's especially true at this particular moment, as DeChambeau has been battling ineffective play and injuries on the course and media speculation concerning the potential Saudi-backed golf league off it. He didn't look comfortable in a missed cut at the Farmers a month ago and was forced to WD after one round in his only subsequent start at the Saudi International.
If there is a spot for the mercurial DeChambeau to regain his footing, Bay Hill is certainly a good bet. He's been dominant in the API to this point in his career, bashing his way to victory last year, and posting two additional top-four outings since 2018. His prodigious distance off the tee is well documented and allows him to gobble up Par-5s at Bay Hill (first in this field SG: Par-5 last 50 rounds), but it is his less-publicized elite ability on long approaches that has truly enabled him to shine on this golf course. DeChambeau grades out first in this API field in Proximity from 200+ yards over long-term measurements. He's undoubtedly helped by the fact that he's usually hitting an 8-iron from around 200 out!
While his health might be a legitimate question mark this week, his potential upside on this Bay Hill layout is not. There are concerns that come with rostering him, but his GPP value shouldn't be underestimated.
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Tyrrell Hatton
Notable Course History: T21 ('21), Win ('20), T29 ('19), T4 ('17)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
The Englishman has been out of sight, out of mind for American golf fans for a while now, as his underwhelming 2021 on U.S. soil ended quietly in the Swing Season. Hatton has emerged from the winter break with rejuvenated form, posting strong international results in both Abu Dhabi (T6) and Dubai (T4) to open the new year. He's set to make his 2022 U.S. debut this week at Bay Hill, the course where he's found his most success in America. Hatton won a wind-swept edition of the API two years ago, posted a T4 in 2017, and has never missed a cut in five career starts at Bay Hill.
Keith Mitchell
Notable Course History: T43 ('21), T5 ('20), T6 ('19)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
Keith Mitchell comes into the week in the midst of a very nice stretch of golf. The UGA alum has gained strokes T2G in four of his five 2022 starts, ball-striking performances that have resulted in four top-12 finishes already this year. In addition to the terrific form, Mitchell has shown an affinity for Bay Hill by logging top-six finishes in the API in two of his three career appearances in the event.
We know he has a penchant for Bermuda putting surfaces such as those he'll find at Bay Hill this week, but it's been his work with the driver that has been so impressive this year. Mitchell ranks third in this elite field in SG: OTT over his last 12 rounds and also sits third in SG: Ball Striking.
Luke List
Notable Course History: T63 ('21), T10 ('19), T7 ('18), T17 ('17)
DraftKings Price: TBD FanDuel Price: TBD
After a huge win at Torrey Pines last month, it's probably not a huge surprise that Luke List has resumed being Luke List in subsequent starts. After gaining over three strokes on the greens en route to the victory at Farmers, the notoriously-bad putter has regressed to the mean with the flat stick, losing a massive 5.8 strokes putting in the WMPO and 2.0 strokes at Riviera.
It's perhaps a fool's errand trying to predict putting - especially with a player like List - but he has shown a fondness for the greens at Bay Hill by gaining strokes putting in three of four career API starts. We know what type of ability he possesses from T2G - he grades out first in this elite field in SG: T2G over the last 24 rounds - so a slight uptick in output on the greens could provide a very nice result this week.
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