Schedule Factors - Hitters on the Rise

Eric Samulski finds hitters who should gain fantasy baseball value in a shortened 2020 MLB season based on the 60-game schedule and divisional matchups.

Now that MLB schedules are finally official, it's time we take a look at which hitters are going to be impacted the most.

In order to fully breakdown the way in which a schedule may impact a hitter, we need to keep three things in mind: player talent, strength of schedule, and directional park factors.

As always, this should be a piece of your larger evaluation. Just because a player is on here doesn't mean he's a "Must Draft" or you need to rocket him up your board. Use it in conjunction with other tools - like Ariel Cohen's ATC projections or Statcast metrics - and change the valuation based on your comfort level.

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Schedule Factors

Analyzing player talent means that we're not going to focus on players who are going to be fantasy studs regardless of their schedule. Hitters like J.D. Martinez and Pete Alonso have only slightly above average schedules for power production, but they are both players who don't need a friendly ballpark to hit home runs. You're not going to move them down your board because other players with less natural talent have a slightly better schedule for power. Similarly, Ronald Acuna Jr has a strong schedule, but you were likely already contemplating taking him first overall with Trout potentially missing time for the birth of his child, so I wouldn't say Acuna is "on the rise" because of the schedule.

The second thing we're going to consider is the overall strength of schedule. I know it's tough to be 100% positive on those numbers when no games have been played, but we still have a pretty good idea of each team's talent level. In particular, when it comes to predicting the success of hitters, we'll be looking at the opposing rotations they are set to face and bumping up some players who will likely have a considerable number of games against average or subpar pitching.

Lastly, we'll be analyzing directional park factors. It's easy to say that hitters get a bump in value playing games in Coors. That's certainly true and great for NL and AL West batters this season; however, most fields are not universally good or bad for hitters. More often than not, fields play into or against hitters' strengths based on their handedness and the part of the field where the hitter tends to hit. Large parks can be great for line drive hitters since there is so much space but bad for power.

Specific park dimensions mean that some parks, like Yankee Stadium, are great for left-handed power but play average for right-handed pull power. There are many strong park factors metrics, but in this article, I'll be using Max Freeze's Directional Park Factors (FreezeStats) article to suggest how each park played last year and how it might impact hitters with their 2020 schedules.

Rhys Hoskins (1B) - Philadelphia Phillies

In addition to the Phillies, Mets, and Nationals all playing in parks that are top-10 for right-handed pull power, Hoskins now gets to play road series in Toronto and Tampa, which rank 11th and 12th in right-handed pull power. He gets to face Baltimore's suspect pitching staff, which is a plus, but doesn't get to plan in Camden Yards, which would have really boosted his stock.

Yes, Hoskins struggled last season and also saw a dip in his Pull%, in particular in the second half of the season from 54% to 39.1%. Yet, by looking at his month splits, you can see that the Pull% was likely part of a clear change that drastically impacted Hoskins' results.

There has been some indication that the last Phillies coaching staff may have been trying to get Hoskins away from being so pull-heavy. However, with such poor results and a new coaching staff in town, Hoskins should go back to pulling the ball around 50% of the time, an approach that made him successful in 2017 and 2018 and should help him take advantage of this schedule.

Marcell Ozuna (OF) - Atlanta Braves

Take all of the above information and apply it to Marcell Ozuna's 49.5 Pull% in 2019. Ozuna gets three games in Baltimore, the best park for power to LF, and two in Tampa; although he doesn't get to hit in Toronto and plays three games in Boston, which is 27th in power to left-center and league average to LF since the Green Monster can suppress home runs that aren't hit high enough to clear the wall. Even if Fenway limits some of his home runs, it could help add doubles.

The major key for Ozuna will be continuing his pull-heavy approach since he has been sub-40% in four MLB seasons. If his approach is anything like it was last year, he could benefit a lot from this schedule.

Adam Duvall (1B, OF) / Austin Riley (3B, OF) - Atlanta Braves

With Nick Markakis sitting out the season, it means the Braves OF is set with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte, and Ozuna with Austin Riley likely slotting in as the DH. However, Riley struggled to make consistent contact last year, which means he's not a lock for the role. Additionally, Freddie Freeman's current battle with COVID means that there could be some 1B at-bats open, both of which could open the door for Adam Duvall to get more playing time.

We know Duvall has always been a strikeout-or-bomb type of player, but he has a career 47.4 Pull% and could benefit from all of what we mentioned above for Ozuna. Riley has the power to benefit from that as well, but he'll have to get back to his minor league Pull% since he pulled the ball only 36% of the time in his major league debut in 2019.

Starlin Castro (2B) / Victor Robles (OF) - Washington Nationals

The Nationals were assigned the Orioles as their interleague rival, which means they will get to play six games against the Orioles and four against the Blue Jays while playing three against every other AL East team. Camden Yards is one of the best parks in the league for power to LF and left-center, so that's a major win for the Nationals right-handed power hitters. Only, they don't really have many. Victor Robles pulled the ball 45% of the time last year, so this could be a small value boost to him, even though he's not truly a power hitter; however, I think the schedule benefits Starlin Castro the most of the Nationals' hitters.

Castro is a beneficiary of the universal DH since he will likely no longer be fighting off Howie Kendrick for playing time at 2B, but he's still in a battle with Asdrubal Cabrera. Yet, if he can hold off the switch-hitter, Castro could see a nice value boost due to park factors. Earlier in the offseason, I mentioned Castro's second-half power surge last year being attributed to a change in bat weight and approach, actively raising his launch angle.

Well, another major change for him was that his Pull% increased from 41.1% to 47.5% in the second half and his FB% increased from 30.5% to 36%. If Castro continues his new approach, the parks he plays in could make him a truly valuable multi-position fantasy asset in a strong offense.

NOTE: Clearly extra games against the Orioles and Blue Jays pitching is good for all Nationals hitters but you're not likely increasing the value of other guys by too much, just feeling confident in their floors.

Jeff McNeil (2B/3B/OF) - New York Mets

Jeff McNeil saw a power surge last year, clubbing 23 home runs, which was a career-high for him. Part of it had to do with having a more conscious pull approach, with a 46.3 Pull%. If McNeil keeps that similar approach this year, and there's no reason to think he won't, then this schedule should set up nicely for him. For starters, Citi Field is the 10th-best park in the league for power to RF, and McNeil will also play divisional games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank, which is seventh-best in the league.

Where it gets even more beneficial for McNeil is that he will play three games on the road versus the Yankees and two games on the road against the Orioles (plus two games at home against their suspect pitching staff). Yankee Stadium is the best park in the league in terms of power to RF and Camden Yards is 12th, which means McNeil will play almost two-third of his games in parks that are above-average for left-handed power. When you pair that with his multi-position eligibility, it bumps McNeil up my rankings a few slots for 2020.

Michael Chavis (1B/2B) - Boston Red Sox

Just as we discussed with the NL East hitters, right-handed power hitters in the AL East hitters can see a boost from the new schedule. Now, four of the seven parks previously mentioned were already on these hitters' schedule, but the Red Sox will also play games at Philadelphia and the New York Mets, which both play up for right-handed pull power.

This could help guys like J.D. Martinez (who I love because of his consistency), but he's a 39% pull hitter over his career. While Chavis only pulled the ball 37% of the time last year, his minor league track record shows a massive jump in Pull% when he repeats a level, including over 50% at AA and AAA. His multi-position eligibility could have an added benefit in that it will give him more at-bats to make use of his pull power.

Max Kepler (OF) / Eddie Rosario (OF) - Minnesota Twins

For starters, the Twins now have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball thanks in part to their own weak division and playing four games against the lowly Pirates. In such a strong lineup, the weak slate of opposing pitching really helps almost every hitter in the Minnesota lineup. However, many of the AL Central parks suppress power to LF and CF, so playing many games against the division, even if the pitching staffs aren't great, doesn't move the needle much for right-handed power bats.

The same cannot be said for the lefties. Both the White Sox and Indians stadiums are top-10 in the league in power to RF, and the Twins will also get three games in Milwaukee, which is fifth in the league. When you combine that with the enticing overall strength of schedule, it makes me intrigued by hitters like Kepler and Rosario, who have Pull% of 53.4% and 48.8% respectively.

NOTE: This doesn't make them automatically more valuable than right-handed hitters like Nelson Cruz or Josh Donaldson. Those guys will still get the benefit of an easy schedule; they just won't also see the slight park boost that I believe Kepler and Rosario will. 

Carlos Santana (1B) - Cleveland Indians

Carlos Santana is positively impacted by pretty much all of the reasons listed for the Twins. The Indians have the second-easiest schedule in baseball, Santana will play half of his games in a stadium that is better for left-handed power than the Twins' stadium is, and he'll also get two games in Cincinnati, whose park is the second-best in the league in terms of power to RF.

The Indians also get six games against the Pirates instead of the four games that everybody else in the AL Central gets. With an enticing schedule and a home park that plays well to left-handed power, I like Santana a little bit more than I did for 162-game season since he has historically hit more home runs when he bats left-handed and has a career Pull% of 53% from the left side.

I have him ranked 10th at first base, just below Rhys Hoskins, but I moved them both ahead of Paul Goldschmidt for reasons we'll get to when I talk about hitters negatively impacted by the new schedule.

Justin Smoak (1B) - Milwaukee Brewers

Justin Smoak was already a winner thanks to the universal DH since he now figures to see regular at-bats for the Brewers, but the new schedule is a big plus for him. For starters, the Brewers have a top-10 schedule according to the new strength of schedule, but perhaps most important is the way the Central parks play for left-handed pull power.

Smoak's home stadium is fifth-best in the league for power to RF, Cincinnati is second-best, and Smoak will also get two games at the White Sox (4th for power to RF) and three at the Indians (10th). That means roughly nearly 70% of Smoak's games will be in parks that are a plus for left-handed pull power. Even though Smoak is a switch-hitter, he historically has way more power from the left side.

In fact, Smoak has never hit more than seven home runs in a season off of lefties. He also pulled the ball 50.7% of the time as a left-handed hitter last year. Smoak was already on the rise as a corner infield target for me and this only helps that.

Cincinnati Reds Hitters

The Reds received the greatest benefit to the change from the 162-game schedule to the 60-game schedule. Turns out, facing the Tigers in 10% of your season and not having to face the Yankees or Rays will do that. While the improved schedule should help all of the Reds hitters, unfortunately, the AL Central parks aren't great for power. The Reds will make trips to Comerica and Kaufman Stadium, which both suppress a great deal of power overall (although right-handed pull hitters like Eugenio Suarez could be OK in Comerica).

You're not going to get a lot of park factors benefit from the Reds. However, as I alluded to above, the NL Central parks are relatively inviting for CF and RF power and getting more games against the Tigers and Royals should make most of their top-tier bats like Suarez, Nicholas Castellanos, and Mike Moustakas just a little more attractive.

Max Muncy (1B/2B/3B) - Los Angeles Dodgers

Similar to Smoak, Muncy was positively impacted by the universal DH even before considering his schedule change. However, playing so many games against the AL West, and having Gerrit Cole no longer in the AL West, means the Dodgers have the fifth-easiest schedule in baseball. That's not really fair considering how talented the team is. Muncy will now see a schedule with considerably easier pitchers plus more stadiums that play to his career 44.3% Pull% from the left side.

While Dodger Stadium is slightly below average for left-handed power, it's the best in the league for power to CF and Muncy hits 32.2% of his balls there. He will also get one-third of his games in parks that are in the top 14 in power to RF (three in Coors, two in Houston, three versus the Angels, three in Texas, two in Seattle, and seven in Arizona). While Texas will be playing in a new stadium, their right-field line has the same dimensions as the previous park and the right-center power alley is actually seven feet closer, thus both Houston and Texas are projected to be top-six stadiums for left-handed pull power. Their inclusion, plus the overall easy schedule, make Muncy slightly more enticing than he would have been in a normal season. Again, this is especially true given his positional versatility in what should be a chaotic season.

Christian Walker (1B) - Arizona Diamondbacks

Walker is another NL West hitter who should benefit from playing so many games within the division. Aside from the Dodgers, there are question marks up and down almost every single other rotation. Having Houston as the inter-division rival isn't great news for wins and losses, but playing in Houston could be big for Walker since Minute Maid is the third-best park for right-handed pull power. Walker will also play two games in Oakland Coliseum, (ninth for power to LF), seven games in San Diego (fifth in power to LF), and four games against Texas' questionable rotation. However, what makes Walker particularly intriguing is that he also hits the ball to center a fair amount too with a combined 76% of balls hit to CF or LF.

In addition to the games in the aforementioned Dodger Stadium, Walker will also get to play in Anaheim and Texas, which are also top-eight parks in terms of power to CF (based on projections for Texas' new park). Add that to the fact that his home park, Chase Field, is the sixth-best park for right-handed power, and I think Walker becomes a slightly more enticing option as a CI or deep league 1B target than he was in a full 162-game schedule.

Khris Davis (UT) / Marcus Semien (SS) - Oakland Athletics

The same strength of schedule factors that contributed to the Dodgers being so highly ranked also help the value of a few A's hitters. Playing the majority of their games against the Rangers, Mariners, and Angels with potentially no Mike Trout, makes me feel even more confident about the Athletics success this season before we even consider the mediocre rotations in the NL West (aside from Los Angeles).

Additionally, the right-handed hitters in Oakland's lineup will be benefited by the fact that their own park is 9th in the league in power to LF, while they'll also play two games in Arizona, two in Colorado, and three games in Houston, all of which are top-12 in pull power to LF. Texas' new park is also 372' to the power alley in left-center whereas the previous stadium was 390', which could mean even more of a boost to right-handed pull power. That, plus the aforementioned Dodger Stadium and Angel Stadium, which are one and two in the league in terms of power to CF should help thew now-healthy Khris Davis (76.7% Pull%+Cent%) and Marcus Semien (75.6% Pull%+Cent%).

NOTE: Matt Chapman also has a 77% Pull%+Cent% and should be another right-handed power bat that sees a benefit; however, many were high on him already. The stadium factors hurt Matt Olson a little; although, not enough to make it really change my valuation of the first baseman. 

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