Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 11)

June 7, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 11 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 11 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xSLG) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Ceddanne Rafaela, Junior Caminero, and Jeremy Pena. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate, but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats, or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Juan Soto and Ryan O'Hearn were a couple of good callouts who kept on hitting. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 11. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 6/4

You read that right. 39-year-old Carlos Santana is your current hit streak leader, but I just outlined his case for being rostered in my 6 Bargain Basement Hitters article, so make sure to check that out!

(Update: Santana went 1-for-4 on Thursday, extending his streak to 14 games)

Christian Yelich (11 games)

Christian Yelich was an All-Star in 2024 for the first time since 2019 before a back injury ended his season prematurely.

The former MVP got off to a slow start this season despite hitting some home runs, slashing .184/.276/.324 with seven HR through May 21. However, since then, his bat has caught fire, going 21-for-49 (.429) with six home runs during his 11-game hit streak.

Christian Yelich has 5 HR and 12 RBI over his last 7 games 👀 pic.twitter.com/rMdSpBWqp4

— MLB (@MLB) May 31, 2025

The 33-year-old can't be nabbed on the waiver wire, but can be used in DFS, particularly against RHP. He's got an .869 OPS against them (.513 vs. LHP), with 12 of his 13 home runs coming off righties.

Ceddanne Rafaela (8)

After a month of futility, Ceddanne Rafaela surely got dropped by many frustrated fantasy managers by May 3rd when he was hitting .208 with two home runs, a .260 wOBA, and a 58 wRC+.

Since then, however, the 24-year-old is hitting .297 with an .839 OPS, .362 wOBA, and a 130 wRC+. Much of that is due to his eight-game hit streak, during which time he's 14-for-34 (.412) with two doubles, four home runs, six RBI, and six runs scored.

CEDDANNE RAFAELA TUCKS IT INSIDE THE POLE FOR A #WALKOFF HOME RUN! pic.twitter.com/Hl5T74OLjK

— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2025

One drawback, though, is that he hasn't stolen a base (or even attempted to) since April 30 after swiping seven in the first month. The Curacao native is still on pace to reach the bar of 19 he set last season.

With a barrel rate of 13.0 percent, he should have no problem reaching 15 home runs again, and with an xBA of .271 compared to his actual BA of .252, there could be a little more room for this streak to run.

He can be plucked from the waiver wire in about 50 percent of fantasy leagues, and has the appeal of positional versatility, able to be slotted into 2B, SS, and OF on Yahoo!.

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 6/4, minimum 13 at-bats

I also outlined Ernie Clement and Jesus Sanchez in my 6 Bargain Basement Hitters article, so again, make sure to give it a read!

Marcus Semien (.571 BA)

Coming off a season in which he recorded a .306 wOBA and 99 wRC+, managers who drafted Marcus Semien were hoping he could get back to some semblance of the .354 wOBA, 126 wRC+ he recorded the year before.

That doesn't look like it will happen after an atrocious start, but he is hot right now. The veteran was hitting leadoff to begin the year, was dropped to the middle of the order, then down to the bottom just over a week ago.

However, since May 30, the 3x All-Star is 8-for-14 (.571) with two doubles, a home run, three RBI, six runs scored, a 4:4 BB:K, and two steals in five games.

5 things we learned about the Rangers this week: Is Marcus Semien back to his best self?
https://t.co/hAOyEVWOEi

— Dallas Morning News (@dallasnews) June 3, 2025

The team has even moved him back to the middle of the order, which is another vote of confidence. But even after all that, he's still only slashing .200/.290/.271 for the year.

His contact rate is down considerably year-over-year, and his strikeout rate has spiked to 21.6 percent from 14.6 percent, along with a noticeable increase in swinging-strike rate, which is cause for concern long-term.

But chase rate and hard-hit rate are stable, while his barrel rate has increased by 1.5 percent. Together with an xBA of .245, there are reasons to believe he can keep this up in the short term.

(Update: Semien went 3-for-4 with two home runs on Thursday)

Tyler Freeman (.500 BA)

Tyler Freeman was getting only sporadic playing time to start the year before an oblique strain shelved him from mid-April to mid-May.

The right-handed hitter had a three-hit game on May 20, perhaps a precursor of things to come, but was still not getting regular playing time.

That has changed in the last week, though, as the 26-year-old has started four straight games for the Rockies, including once at DH, so they are actively keeping his bat in the lineup.

He's made the most of the opportunity, going 8-for-16 over the past week (five games) with a double, a home run, three RBI, three runs scored, and a stolen base.

He also didn't strike out once over that stretch, owning just a 14.5 percent strikeout rate for his career, and has posted a superb 91.3 percent contact rate in 2025.

The 5-foot-11 slugger eligible at SS and OF is sparsely rostered, but if he can continue to earn regular at-bats, he could be a sneaky double-digit homer and stolen base guy when it's all said and done. If not, cut him loose.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 6/4, minimum 13 at-bats

Before we get into the two players below, take a mental note of the bottom three who were on a power binge over the past week. Addison Barger? Yep, also in the 6 Bargain Basement Hitters article.

Max Muncy (.750 ISO)

We won't spend much time on Max Muncy (of the Dodgers), we know his specialty is smacking big flies, and when he does, it's usually in bunches.

MAX MUNCY! pic.twitter.com/l7UPbARTZ9

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) June 4, 2025

That is what is going on right now. Through the first 39 games of the season, Muncy had just one home run. In the 19 games since, the left-handed slugger has whacked eight out of the yard, including a pair of multi-homer games recently.

If you use him in season-long fantasy or DFS, make sure he's going against a righty. He's slashing .085/.185/.106 against LHP, compared to .273/.399/.532 against RHP, which includes all nine of his home runs this year.

Junior Caminero (.625 ISO)

Junior Caminero displayed prolific power in the minors, and now we're seeing it nightly in the majors. He didn't exactly start slow this year, but there was an 18-game lull from April 30 to May 23 where he hit .191 (13-for-68) with just three extra base hits.

Then we began to see extra-base hits coming more frequently and with strong exit velocities, so much so that he was included in this very article last week. I mentioned, "he's got top-of-the-scale power, so look out, a power surge in the form of home runs could be coming."

That article was published the morning of May 29, and since then, throughout six games, the 21-year-old has gone 8-for-24 (.333) with three doubles and four home runs (not to mention 12 RBI, eight runs scored, and a stolen base).

The 6-foot-1 Dominican has the fastest bat speed in the majors, and if you aren't sure whether or not that means he'll continue to hit for power, look at the company he keeps, according to the below chart from Baseball Savant.

One last interesting and notable nugget: he has reverse splits against LHP and RHP. Against lefties, he owns a .668 OPS, .286 wOBA, and 86 wRC+, while he's posted an .852 OPS, .364 wOBA, and 141 wRC+ against righties. Deploy in DFS accordingly.

(Update: Caminero went 2-for-4 with another home run on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 6/4

Daniel Schneemann (three SBs)

You might not know it, but Daniel Schneemann hit .316 (25-for-79) over a 28-game stretch from mid-April to mid-May, which included five doubles and five home runs (but zero stolen bases).

Then he went into a 3-for-23 (.130) slump, although it came with one homer (and one steal). Over the last four games, however, the 28-year-old has had a three-hit game, which included two doubles, and he's stolen three bases over the previous four contests.

He showed some base-stealing chops in the minors, with 37 steals between 2022 and 2023, so maybe there is something to this.

If the three-hit game is 1) a sign he's breaking out of his slump, and 2) he can hit for extra bases, and 3) he can steal bases, all while 4) having positional eligibility at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF on Yahoo!, then you 5) have yourself a solid waiver wire pickup!

Jeremy Pena (three SBs)

I'll try to keep this one brief. Jeremy Pena was listed in the "Hit Streak Leaders" graphic above, just outside the players shown in both the "Highest Batting Average" and "Highest ISO" graphics, and is on this list regarding steals.

So, right now he's hitting, doing it consistently, adding a bit of power along the way, and stealing bases. What more can you ask for??

(Update: Pena went 3-for-5 with a double and another stolen base on Thursday)

xSLG Underachiever

Data through 6/4 

Bryan Reynolds (.372 vs. .517)

I put Bryan Reynolds in my Week 8 article as an underachiever, and well, according to the numbers, he's still underachieving. However, that article was published on May 16, and guess what? Since then, the switch-hitter is 21-for-59 (.356) with a .559 SLG and .203 ISO.

Back then, he had a .253 wOBA and 55 wRC+, which have increased to .299 and 87, respectively. With a career wOBA of .348 and wRC+ of 118, there is still room to improve. But after such a hot streak, can he?

He's on this list because his expected stats say he should be faring better than his actual stats indicate. Looking at peripheral stats, his chase rate is at a career low, while his contact, swinging-strike, barrel, and hard-hit rates are all a couple of percentage points better than last season, yet he is hitting .235 with a .677 OPS.

The peripherals are backing up the fact that his actual numbers should be better, and if you don't know Reynolds' career history in June, then check out the following table:

There are plenty of reasons to believe the 2x All-Star's recent hot stretch has legs.

xSLG Overachiever

Data through 6/4

Luis Arraez (.406 vs. .342)

I wrote up Jacob Wilson last week and said it felt like he could keep hitting for decent power. With Luis Arraez, I'm not so sure.

It's not like he has a ton of extra base hits, with 12 doubles, three triples, and three home runs, but that puts him on pace for 34/9/9 in those categories. That amount of doubles wouldn't be out of the ordinary, as he hit 32 of them last season.

But he hit just three triples and four home runs all of last year in 672 plate appearances, so he's about to surpass both of those with only about a third of the season played.

Hitting nine triples and nine home runs in a season for a guy who is the best in the game at putting the bat on the ball doesn't seem unthinkable, but then you realize he's got the slowest bat speed in all of baseball and a 0.5 percent barrel rate, and it becomes understandable why the numbers are saying he's overachieving here.

It feels somewhat reminiscent of last season when a similar hitter in Steven Kwan got off to a hot start and was pacing for around 20 home runs, but ultimately ended with 14 (partly due to missed time, but you get the point).

Fantasy managers didn't draft Arraez for power anyway, so just don't expect anything more than doubles from the three-time batting champ from here on out, and you won't be disappointed.

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