High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 14)

December 5, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 14 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 14 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're one week away before the fantasy football playoffs begin, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Packers have been the most run-heavy offense in neutral game scripts. Since Week 8, they rank first in neutral script rush rate at 58 percent, ahead of the Eagles (55 percent) and Giants (53 percent).

That said, Josh Jacobs had six carries inside the 10, converting one for a touchdown. Jacobs climbed into second place with 26 carries inside the 10, accounting for 75 percent of the team's rush attempts inside the five. The Packers likely love a running back like Jacobs to use in December and the colder months, so expect them to rely on him more often, though that hurts the pass catchers.

De'Von Achane had three carries inside the 10 in Week 13 but didn't score. The Dolphins struggled to run against the Packers' rushing defense, with 14 carries and 39 yards combined. Interestingly, Jaylen Wright wasn't a factor, but Raheem Mostert had a role.

In Weeks 8-12, Wright (20 percent) and Mostert (19 percent) matched each other in rush share, but Wright went to zero in Week 13.

Maybe Week 13 is the outlier, but the important details involve the focal point of the offense being Achane. That's evident in Achane's 19.6 percent target share in Week 13, tying him with Tyreek Hill. Achane averaged a 16 percent target share (No. 3), with five games of 18 percent or higher, not including Week 13.

Bijan Robinson handled all five of the Falcons' rush attempts inside the 10 in Week 13, scoring on one of them. That puts him 17th in rush attempts inside the 10 on the season.

It's worth noting that Robinson didn't share the carries inside the 10 or five-yard line in Week 13 because they have a relatively even split during the season. Robinson ranks 21st with 53.8 percent of the team's carries inside the five compared to Allgeier at 46.2 percent (No. 31).

The visual below shows the running back rushing and receiving expected points per game. Players in the top right quadrant have a balanced rushing and receiving profile via their usage, making them high-end to near-elite options.

Robinson may continue separating himself by adding more high-value touches inside the 10 and five-yard lines. That potentially leads to him solidifying himself as a top-5 running back, especially with the receiving volume.

Allgeier remains a high-end backup to have on fantasy rosters. However, it's more fruitful for a talented back like Robinson to garner the near-elite workloads of expected fantasy points as a rusher and receiver.

Bucky Irving looks like a weekly league winner. Irving had four of his 25 carries inside the 10 in Week 13 against the Panthers. He scored his lone rushing touchdown on one of his four carries inside the 10, with Rachaad White handling two in Week 13.

In Weeks 8-12, the Panthers run defense allowed the eighth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt with the second-lowest pass rate over expected allowed. The Panthers have been a run-funnel defense for opposing offenses to attack, evidenced by Irving and White's rushing success in Week 13.

The visual below shows the rushing advanced stat leaders in Weeks 8-13 sorted by missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/Att).

Irving ranked 21st in expected fantasy points per game (14.1) and scored over four more than expected (18.8) in Weeks 8-13. Meanwhile, White averaged 11.1 expected fantasy points while producing over two PPR/G in Weeks 8-13. Irving possesses the juice as a rusher, evidenced by the second-highest missed tackles forced rate (32 percent), with White forcing five percent in Weeks 8-13.

The visual below shows the season-long rushing leaders inside the 10.

There's potential touchdown regression for Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Achane, and Tank Bigsby. However, Bigsby comes with the most skepticism given the offensive situation.

Since Week 11, Anthony Richardson has five carries inside the 10, with Taylor at six. Richardson scored three touchdowns, and Taylor had zero inside the 10 in Weeks 11-13. The percentage of attempts inside the five became even, with Richardson at 57.1 percent and Taylor at 42.9 percent over the past few weeks.

However, in Weeks 1-10, Richardson had a lowly 25 percent of the team's carries inside the five (seven carries inside the 10) compared to Taylor hogging them at 75 percent (16 carries inside the 10). The usage for Richardson near the goal line shifted in his favor, leading to a shared short-yardage role between the quarterback and Taylor.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Somehow, the Chiefs have been sneaking by with wins against the Panthers and Raiders within three points for each contest. For context, the Panthers ranked last in EPA per pass attempt, and the Raiders ranked 26th. We have similar passing numbers for the Raiders, ranking last in EPA per rush attempt, but the Panthers rank 12th.

We highlight the team-level data because Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, and Kareem Hunt had one target each inside the 10 in Week 13 against the Raiders. When an offense relies on a veteran tight end, a second tight end, and an aging running back, it's usually not a fruitful offensive formula.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders inside the 10 sorted by targets in Weeks 1-13.

Kelce moves into sixth among pass catchers (WR/TE/RB) in targets inside the 10 on the season as one of 10 tight ends with five or more targets in these situations. The other tight ends with five or more include George Kittle (10), David Njoku (nine), Jonnu Smith (seven), Sam LaPorta (six), Cade Otton (six), Brock Bowers (six), Hunter Henry (six), Zach Ertz (six), and Isaiah Likely (five).

The receiving advanced stat leaders are sorted below by expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-13 to highlight two tight ends inside the top 24 in xFP/G.

Besides Bowers (15.3 xFP/G), Kelce rocks the highest expected fantasy points (14.1 xFP/G) at the position in 2024. That indicates TE1 or WR2-type usage for Kelce, regardless of what we think about the Chiefs' offense.

The Lions have hardly used LaPorta, leading to frustrated fantasy managers. When the Lions have Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Jameson Williams, all the offensive weapons can't feast weekly. LaPorta caught both of his targets inside the 10 for two touchdowns. Unfortunately, it's concerning for LaPorta's sustainability when a player totals six receiving yards on three receptions.

Let the inefficiencies continue for Garrett Wilson, as one of the receivers with two or more targets inside the 10 with zero touchdowns. Before Week 13, Wilson ranked 187th in fantasy points over expected per game at -0.9, with a career-high in expected fantasy points at 16.7 (No. 5). Wilson ranks third with nine targets inside the 10, scoring three touchdowns.

For context, Wilson tied with St. Brown, who caught seven touchdowns on his nine season-long targets inside the 10. Unsurprisingly, Wilson's teammate Davante Adams is close behind with eight targets inside the 10, yet only two touchdowns.

Over the past two weeks, Adams ranks third in expected fantasy points per game (23.6) behind Drake London and Tee Higgins. Meanwhile, Wilson ranks 14th in expected fantasy points per game (19.4). The main difference between the two involves Adams averaging 17.6 PPR and Wilson at 9.1, meaning Adams unperformed by six points, and Wilson scored 10 points below expectation.

Wilson's usage still makes him borderline WR1, but the production shifted more in Adams' favor over the past two weeks.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

Jonnu Smith has been a potential waiver-wire tight end who could win weeks based on his boom performances supported by the volume. Smith had six targets on third and fourth downs in Week 13, showing Tua Tagovailoa relying on him with a team-high 11 targets (23.9 percent).

Over the past three weeks, Smith has been the leading target earner or tied for the lead among the Dolphins' running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

The visual below shows the Dolphins' receiving advanced stats in Weeks 8-13.

Like starting pitchers, the goal of streaming tight ends should be to have them become a reliable option. Smith meets the criteria of a streamer, turning into a weekly must-start option.

The visual below shows the target leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 13.

Though Brandin Cooks had five targets on third and fourth downs in Week 13, it's likely noise given the Cowboys' offense without Dak Prescott and a struggling running game. However, Kelce showing up again makes sense.

Four of Jayden Reed's six targets came on third and fourth downs in Week 13. That indicates Jordan Love looked toward Reed on crucial downs. However, this offense remains run-heavy, especially in neutral game scripts, and they distribute the targets around, with five or more pass catchers averaging four to seven targets per game. 

Adams was the favorite target for Aaron Rodgers on third and fourth downs, with seven of his 12 targets coming in those crucial situations. We discussed how Adams' usage turned into a top-5 receiver in Weeks 12-13 after being somewhat evenly split between him and Wilson.

Darnell Mooney and London had five targets each on third and fourth downs, though Mooney saw his target share dip to 15.4 percent in Week 13. Meanwhile, London earned 16 targets, translating to a 41 percent target share. In Weeks 8-12, Mooney and London had an identical 24 percent target share, with Mooney soaking up the air yards (48 percent air yards share).

The visual below shows the Falcons' receiving advanced stats in Weeks 8-13.

Since Week 8, London ranked 28th in expected fantasy points (14.5), with Mooney close behind at 13.7 (No. 35). Both had a high air yards share at 39 percent and similar first-read target shares, with 32.4 percent for London and 29.5 percent for Mooney in Weeks 8-13.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders in targets per route and other advanced receiving stats on third and fourth downs in Weeks 1-13.

Mooney ranks sixth in targets on third and fourth downs, with London at 11th. The first-read target shares on third and fourth downs have been similar, evidenced by Mooney's 33.7 percent share and London at 31.4 percent.

It was the second time Kirk Cousins had four interceptions in a game, the last time coming in Week 4 of 2014. Cousins ranked 30th in completion rate over expected at -6.6 percent, ahead of Caleb Williams (-10.9 percent), Rodgers (-11.8 percent), and Trevor Lawrence (-23 percent) in Week 13.

The Chargers' defense has been solid throughout the season, but Week 13 looks like the outlier, with Cousins ranking 17th in CPOE (3.1 percent) in Weeks 1-12. If Cousins continues to struggle, this will be concerning for the Falcons' passing options.

Parker Washington garnered five of his team-high 12 targets on third and fourth downs. Washington caught three of his five targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. Three of Washington's 12 targets and 36 of his 103 receiving yards came from Lawrence before he left with a concussion.

Besides Washington, Brian Thomas Jr. had four of his 10 targets on third and fourth downs. Surprisingly, Mac Jones ranked fifth in adjusted yards per attempt (8.6), 17th in CPOE (3.3 percent), and eighth in fantasy points per dropback (0.59) in Week 13. That's notable because we saw glimpses of Jones keeping the passing offense afloat instead of being something to fade.

The visual below shows the Jaguars' receiving advanced stats in Weeks 8-13.

Washington led the Jaguars with a 31.4 percent first-read target share in Week 13, with Thomas close behind at 28.6 percent. Thomas averages a 22.8 percent first-read target share (No. 51), with Washington at 9.7 percent (No. 130) in 2024. The Jaguars tend to spread the ball with their first-read targets since Evan Engram leads the team at 24 percent and Thomas at 20.8 percent in Weeks 8-13.

The main changes for Washington involve a more downfield role, evidenced by his 32.6 percent air yards share in Week 13. That's drastically different than his 7.6 air yards share in Weeks 1-12, though he wasn't used much, with a 40 percent route rate. It's hard to ignore Washington's boom game in Week 13, so he'll likely be a top waiver-wire option in deeper formats, especially if his usage sticks.

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