RADIO
Well, 2022 didn't start off a great track in the life front, so a big thanks to my man Dan Palyo for covering me yet again in Week 17. It's been a rough year on the picks as well, as I can't get out of this rut I'm in. Bad for me, and good for all of you who know what to fade for the week! In all seriousness, this is going to be a tough week in terms of handicapping because a lot of playoff teams will be putting their stars on pitch counts, and of course we're still dealing with guys missing due to COVID protocols. Nonetheless, we're putting in a good effort to try and go into the playoffs on a strong foot.
- 2021 Season: 12-24-1 (32%, -12.5u)
- Spread: 6-5, +.3u
- Total/Team Total: 4-12-1, -8.3u
- Moneyline: 0-5, -4.3u
- Props: 2-2, -.2u
I will always keep the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional** but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. PLEASE be sure to odds shop. As sports betting becomes "legal" in more states, there's so many different books trying to get your business. Also, just an FYI, I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm glad to say that I am back and ready to bring you my favorite bets for Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @stevejanik6 where I will occasionally add plays to my season record. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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NFL Betting Picks - Under
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-5)
Sunday 1/9, 1 PM EST | O/U: 41.5
Likely Ben Roethlisberger’s last go at it, he’ll likely be without his stud receiver Diontae Johnson (COVID-19), unless he can get two negative tests before Sunday. Ben’s passing stats were pretty wild in Week 17, going 24 of 46 for 123 yards with a touchdown and interception each. Najee Harris popped off for a big game with 188 yards and a score, though that touchdown was a gift at the end of the game when he easily could have walked out of bounds with the game in hand. On defense, TJ Watt is nearing a legendary season, as he only needs one sack to tie, and two to break the NFL record for a season. This unit has been getting gashed on the ground and through the air, but Watt is a constant.
The Ravens need a miracle to make the playoffs, following five straight losses. Lamar Jackson (ankle) hasn’t played since Week 14 and hasn’t practiced this week, leaving his status as pretty doubtful. Tyler Huntley has been decent enough in his place, throwing for over 500 yards with three touchdowns, an interception, while rushing for two more scores. Even still with his rushing ability, they’ve only averaged 115 rushing yards per game over the L3, which won’t cut it for this team. Defensively, Baltimore has been getting gashed with the likes of the Steelers. However, with Diontae Johnson likely out and Roethlisberger's noodle arm, the leaky Ravens secondary will not have nearly as much to worry about.
An absolute must win for both teams but especially the Steelers, I think this game is going to go back to the old days of a ground and pound with one defense getting a big key turnover and the rivalry will be well. Give me the under.
UPDATE 1/7/22: Diontae Johnson (COVID-19) was somehow activated off the COVID Reserve list just one day after being placed on it. Not sure how that happened, but it certainly has a factor in this game now. While he is a big boost to the offense, his presence isn't quite enough to scare me away from the under. As we saw in Week 17, when Johnson scored, the Steelers still struggled to move the ball consistently.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit
NFL Betting Picks - Team Total
Indianapolis Colts (-15.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1/9, 1 PM EST | O/U: 44
The Colts took a bad home loss to the Raiders in Week 17 and now put themselves in a must win situation to close out the season, with hopes of making the playoffs. Luckily for them, they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars who are the losers of eight straight and have scored 20 or more points just once since Week 6.
Despite the loss to the Raiders, things have been solid for the Colts of late. In their L3, they've averaged 23 points per game, 294 yards per game, and 158 rushing yards per game, thanks to Jonathan Taylor. The Wisconsin product should have no issue having an absolute field day against Jacksonville who has allowed and insane 176 rushing ypg over their L3. Carson Wentz and the passing game haven't exactly needed to put up big numbers because of the rushing production, but the Jaguars present plenty of chances for a big day through the air as well.
Tell me that the Colts aren't capable of putting up 30-plus points against this Jaguars team and I'll say you're flat out wrong. Indianapolis has had a roller coaster season and they're ready to go into the playoffs in strong form, which is why I don't worry that they'll get ahead and put the brakes on.
Pick: Indianapolis Team Total Over 30.5 (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
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