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It's not often that I get to put out some Saturday NBA picks, but we have a nice big slate of games (10) and I'm feeling pretty good after a near sweep (4-1) yesterday with the Wizards' loss at home being my only miss.
I'm only picking sides and totals in this article three days a week, so consider subscribing to my sports betting substack here as I put out some DFS stuff and props on most evenings from Monday through Friday, too.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for NBA games that tip-off at 4:00 PM EST on Saturday, March 11th.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- 2022-2023 Overall Record: 129-127-2
- Against the Spread: 62-63-2
- Game/Team Totals: 15-27
- Moneyline Parlay: 17-25
- Teasers: 32-12
NBA Betting Picks: Against the Spread
Utah Jazz (-2.5) vs. Charlotte Hornets (231 total)
This one should be fun if you want to watch some young up-and-coming ballers, but neither team has any designs on the postseason this year. The Jazz started off hot, but came back to Earth after the first few months and eventually traded away Mike Conley as they settled into their fate as a lottery team.
The Hornets have been pretty bad all year, even when LaMelo Ball was playing. But Ball is on the shelf for the rest of the season and now their young stud center, Mark Williams, may be out for a few games as well.
Utah still lists Jordan Clarkson as questionable, but I am guessing he suits up here and that he, Lauri Markannen, and Walker Kessler have their way with this Charlotte defense. Utah has a major size advantage with Kessler and Lauri inside against Charlotte, a team that has been abused by big men all year long.
I am sure the Hornets will battle, but they'll only go as far as Kelly Oubre and Terry Rozier's shooting will take them. I simply think Utah is a better, most consistent team, even in the late stages of the season, and that they'll find a way to win this one and cover what is too small of a spread.
The Pick: Jazz -2.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder (+2) @ New Orleans Pelicans (233 total)
Today's the day the Thunder finally get a win against the Pels as they've failed to do so in the first three matchups of the year.
They've lost by four, three (in OT), and three in the first three games as each one has come down to the wire.
As you probably remember, OKC has been one of the best teams ATS this year and as long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in the lineup, they have a chance at competing with (and even beating) anyone in the league.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans list Brandon Ingram as questionable and despite their win against the Mavs on Wednesday night, they are still just at a -6 net rating over their last ten games. I love betting on OKC as underdogs as we get great value on their money line. Give me the Thunder here to pick up a road win and make the push for the final few spots in the play-in tourney out West that much more interesting!
The Pick: OKC ML (+115)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Indiana Pacers (-2.5) @ Detroit Pistons (229 total)
There are some question marks here on the injury report that leave me a bit leery of making a pick in this game as both Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner are questionable for the Pacers. But assuming that these guys (or even one of the two) suit up tonight, I like the potential for a lot offense in this one.
The Pacers have been scoring in bunches lately, piling up 120+ points in six of their last seven games. They dropped 143 on the Sixers last week before putting up 134 on Houston just a few nights ago. This team has a lot of options on offense and Haliburton is the engine that makes them go as he is constantly creating open looks for his teammates.
Detroit has been in a freefall for weeks now as they've dropped their last ten games in a row and are struggling to field a healthy lineup on a nightly basis. They're firmly committed to tanking and thus they are running their young guys out there with a handful of veterans and former G-league players. They definitely have some guys who can score, though, and Indiana has not played much defense this season which gives me hope that the Pistons can hold up their end of the deal.
The first time these teams met, they combine for 239 points back in the Fall. The Detroit lineup looks a lot different now, but we are banking on Indiana playing pretty fast and loose with nothing to lose or play for here, too. We get this game tonight and again on Monday as they have the rematch in a few days. I like the over, up to as high as 231.
The Pick: OVER 229 (-110)
Money Line Parlay: IND + BOS + MEM = (+224 DK)
Underdog TEASER (SUPER-TEASER, buying 10 points)
NYK +15, ORL +12.5, OKC +12, SAC +13 = (-120 DK)
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