RADIO
After going 2-2 in my brief one week as an NFL handicapper, I'm ready to jump back into my NBA picks today and just happen to have a sweet 10-game slate to dive into headlong. Saturday's picks went well, other than Miami, who totally got wiped out by the Bucks. We were on Boston and Chicago who both covered and I added Memphis to my card later in the day as soon as Dallas ruled out Porzingis and Luka.
We have some great games tonight and I am focusing on three games in particular that I am betting spreads or money lines so this will be the first time I don't feature a total. Please make sure you follow some of these situations closely as certain players being ruled in or out is going to affect how much we like certain bets on this slate.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, December 4th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 36-46
- Against the Spread 20-14
- Over/Under 11-15
- Teasers/Parlays 5-17
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays, too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Washington (+5.5) @ Indiana (210.5 total)
I went back and forth on whether to make a pick on this game and it's probably my least confident of the five picks I am making today. But here it is - these teams are both rating out as slightly above average and both have been really inconsistent lately, failing to string together very many wins in a row. Washington has certainly come back to Earth quite a bit since their hot start, while Indiana has looked better lately after a really bad start. I'm not convinced either team is all that good and both teams are likely to end up somewhere in the middle of the Eastern Conference pecking order.
They met earlier in the season just once when Washington pulled off a close win, but that was way back in October, too. I wouldn't be surprised if either team wins tonight, but this spread did surprise me and grabbed my attention as I have Indy favored by only a few points. I think it stays close and therefore, my lean is with the underdogs here. I'm guessing the fact that the Pacers haven't played since Friday and Washington played just yesterday has influenced this line a bit, but according to the stats the rest situation doesn't really sway things towards Indiana at all.
The Pick: Washington +5.5 (-105 DK Sportsbook)
Cleveland (+6.5) @ Milwaukee (214.5 total)
If you had bet on the Cavs with the points every game this season, you'd be 15-5-1 right now. You probably think I am some Cavs homer who picks them all the time only so they can have a reason to watch their favorite team play. You're half right! I love watching this team play, but I HATE picking games where one of my favorite teams is playing.
You simply can't ignore the fact that the Cavs continue to defy the odds on a nightly basis and win or cover against good teams. They lost by one point to a really good Utah team yesterday and had a chance to pull off the upset on the final possession. They got Cedi Osman back in the rotation yesterday, which was a big boost to their bench unit. Yes, this is a back-to-back for them, but I really do think they can hang with anyone in the NBA right now.
That being said, Giannis (arguably the best human on Earth at playing basketball) is questionable for this game. If he does play, then Cleveland will have their biggest challenge of the season on their hands and this line is probably about right. If he sits out, I think the Cavs win or push the Bucks right up the buzzer. Read below for very specific instructions on this bet!
The Pick: Cleveland +6.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook) WAIT A LITTLE BIT ON THIS PLAY IF YOU THINK GIANNIS PLAYS. I like this bet where it's at if Giannis is out, and if Giannis plays then I would see where the line settles before making a final decision. If Giannis does play and the line moves to +8 or more, then I would probably grab it there.
LA Clippers (-3) @ Portland (215.5 total)
This is an easy one for me and probably my favorite spread bet. These two teams are squaring off for the fourth time already this year. LA holds a 2-1 advantage in the series and should be at full strength tonight (Kawhi being out doesn't count) against a Portland team that is still missing their star player Damian Lillard and his backup, Anfernee Simons.
In the four games that Dame has missed, Portland has gone 1-3 with their lone win coming against the lowly Detroit Pistons. In the other three games, they've lost by an average of 29 points! If it ain't broke, don't fix it, right? I've made money by backing the Spurs and Celtics the last two times against this wounded Portland team and I'm going right back at them again with the Clippers.
Portland is 0-6 ATS as the undedog this year and that -18 net rating sticks out like a sore thumb. Give me the Clippers here, and we did this on Saturday - if you want to buy a few more points to get better odds I don't mind buying it up to -5 where you can.
The Pick: Clippers -3 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (217 total)
We haven't had too many overs to bet lately, but when the Hornets are on a slate we have to strongly consider it! Charlotte was able to pull off a high-scoring 130-127 win over Atlanta yesterday despite being without their starting backcourt of LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier. But Ish Smith and Kelly Oubre filled in nicely, while Miles Bridges and Gordon Hayward stepped up as well as P.J. Washington and Cody Martin off the bench.
This Hornets team is so much fun. Even if they can't pull off an upset tonight, I think they'll battle and we know they'll score AND give up points. They're hitting the over at a 60% rate this year and are 4-1 on overs in games without any rest so I am not too worried there. The Sixers have been a full two points better this year when Embiid is in the lineup and they could get Tobias Harris back from illness tonight as well. Everything lines up for a lot of points in this one, I'm betting this over with confidence.
The Pick: OVER 217 (good up to 219) -110 DK Sportsbook
Denver Nuggets (+4) @ Chicago Bulls (217 total)
This game has UNDER written all over it! I remember being on the under the last time these teams met, but that was before Nikola Jokic was ruled out. Denver plays so much differently with Jokic vs. without him and their defensive rating balloons to 123 when he's out compared to 105 when he's in.
I expect this to be a great game between two really good teams. Denver loves to play slow and methodically and Chicago usually does the same thing, especially when they're running the offense through DeMar DeRozan on the second unit. With the slowest projected pace on the slate, it doesn't make much sense to me that Vegas has this game pegged for two more points than the NBA season average of 215.
It's two good offenses against two good defenses in this one. If both teams can score efficiently and are making shots then we might "take the L" as the kids say. But if both defenses are able to force the other team into more contested shots, then I think we see this game go well under the total based on the pace of play. I am big believer in betting the under in games between teams that actually matter (like this one) and the over in games where teams have little incentive to value each possession the way that good teams do in big games.
The Pick: UNDER 217 (good down to 215) -110 DK Sportsbook
NO TEASERS OR PARLAYS TODAY! We already have five other picks!
NBA Betting Picks: Positional Stats Matrix
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I use these when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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