RADIO
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! After a smaller five-game slate yesterday, we have a much larger 12-game slate to look at tonight. There are a ton of players questionable, so be sure to monitor injury reports throughout the day.
Last night, I went 2-0 on my picks. Both games were close calls but we were able to get past the finish line. The Mavericks covered their 11-point spread and the Warriors held the Rockets under 112.5 points.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, April 5. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5) at Indiana Pacers (234 total)
Oklahoma City is 1-4 this season in games Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses. On top of that, the Thunder will also be without second-leading scorer Jalen Williams. Both sat out in the Thunder's 135-100 loss to the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City only scored 105 points against the Sixers Tuesday night, so it's been back-to-back low-scoring performances.
The Pacers come into this game off of a bad 115-111 loss in Brooklyn on Wednesday night. Indiana is 20-16-2 ATS at home this season, and that's where my pick is going. SGA and Jalen Williams being out again tells me that OKC isn't prioritizing this East Coast road trip. They have another game on the road against the Hornets on Sunday and then return home for the final four games of the season.
In their last two games, the Thunder hit 42.9 percent of their FGAs and 28.6 percent from three. They get to the line a lot and shoot well from there, but free throws can often fluctuate game by game.
I just like the Pacers offense in this game, and Indiana has averaged the most points at home this season. In five home games in March, the Pacers offense dipped, but they were still in the top 10 in scoring and the top 12 in field-goal percentage. Indiana's defense profile is not as bad as it looks to me. They give up a ton of points, but teams are also hitting 49.4 percent of their FGAs, which is high. The Pacers defend the three well in terms of attempts, and I think they improve that home ATS record tonight.
Pascal Siakam in the effort in Brooklyn:
26 PTS | 9 REB | 3 AST pic.twitter.com/CYFhGAVp39
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) April 4, 2024
The Pick: Pacers -5.5 (-108 FanDuel)
Portland Trail Blazers (+1.5) at Washington Wizards (220.5 total)
On Wednesday, the Blazers didn't make it easy, but they were able to cover in the first half. Portland jumped out to a 30-21 lead before losing the second quarter 23-15. I'm going to avoid a potential second-quarter meltdown and roll with the Blazers in the opening 12 minutes.
This Blazers group has won back-to-back opening quarters, and I like some of the pieces on this team. They are only hitting 40 percent of their FGAs and 29.4 percent of their threes. That tells me there's room for growth. This isn't the most formidable offensive group, but they still put up 30 in the last game.
Their defense has been great. In their last two games, the Blazers are holding opponents to 21.5 points on 39 percent field-goal shooting and 18.8 percent from three. Washington is without leading scorer Kyle Kuzma tonight.
Deandre Ayton has led the way for Portland, averaging eight points and five rebounds over his last two games. Even though the offense hasn't been great, the Blazers still rank 17th in offensive rating in their last two opening quarters. It's closer to average than the bottom of the league.
Sharpshooter Scooter 🫡 pic.twitter.com/hmQ0WsbuZZ
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) April 3, 2024
The Pick: Blazers First Quarter +0.5 (-115 PointsBet)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Toronto Raptors (+15) at Milwaukee Bucks (227.5 total)
I'm not a huge fan of big spreads, but I think the Milwaukee Bucks are going to crush the Raptors tonight. The Bucks come into this game off of two wild losses where they were double-digit favorites. Doc Rivers' team needs to get off to a better start tonight, and they have a good matchup for that.
Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are both playing tonight, but I'm trusting my gut that Milwaukee comes to play in the first half. The Bucks are an NBA-best 23-12-2 ATS in the first half at home this season. Milwaukee is third in offensive rating and 11th in defensive rating. In six games at Fiserv Forum in March, the Bucks were sixth in first-half offensive rating.
If Giannis Antetokounmpo comes out motivated tonight, I'm not sure how Toronto is going to stop him. He is averaging 14.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in the opening two quarters of home games. Milwaukee averages over 61 points and shoots over 50 percent on FGAs and over 40 percent from deep. Damian Lillard is questionable tonight and has missed his last three games, so make sure to monitor that.
Toronto gives up a lot of points in the paint, and the Raptors can be vulnerable in that area. The Bucks are in the top five in the NBA in catch and shoot threes per game. Toronto has trouble defending the pass, which means Milwaukee will have opportunities to spread it around and find open shots.
I could get burned taking the first half spread instead of the full game, but I'm banking on Giannis and Co. to come out with a purpose tonight.
GIANNIS SENDS IT BACK! pic.twitter.com/33p8GxNiZQ
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) April 4, 2024
The Pick: Bucks First Half -7.5 (-125 Sports Illustrated Sportsbook)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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