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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Tonight, we have a smaller five-game slate to look at. The marquee matchup on the schedule is the Golden State Warriors traveling to Houston to take on the Rockets. Golden State is currently three games ahead of the Rockets for final play-in spot in the Western Conference
Last night, I went 1-2. The Blazers were able to hold on and cover the first in the second quarter to go over half against the Hornets. Brooklyn jumped out to a quick 11-4 start and forgot what to do after that, resulting in them not covering the first quarter. I'm pretty frustrated with the Orlando Magic going over their team total in the first half. They only scored 24 in the first quarter and then 34 in the second. Hopefully, we rebound and win both picks tonight.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday, April 4. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Golden State Warriors (-3.5) at Houston Rockets (227.5 total)
I like the Rockets team total under in this game. Houston has been the NBA's highest-scoring team in its last 10 games, but there are things that concern me. The Rockets are putting up nearly 122 points per game and only hitting 47.8 percent of FGAs and 36.6 percent from three. That field goal percentage is good enough for 17th, and they are tied for 14th in three-point percentage. Houston is one of three teams to average at least 120 points in its last 10 games. The other three are all shooting above 49 percent on FGAs.
The Rockets have been able to get a lot of shots off and also attempt over 21 free throws per game. Golden State allows a good amount of FGAs and threes, but they've been able to hold opponents to good percentages this season. On the road, the Warriors are in the top 10 in defensive rating. When they play in the Chase Center, that drops into the low 20s. They give up 117.1 points at home compared to 114.2 on the road.
Houston is a big three-point shooting team, but the Warriors have held opponents to 35.1 percent from deep on the road this season. I thought about taking the under in this game, but with the Rockets now three games back, they might start to feel their season slipping away. Golden State is still only 1.5 games back of the Lakers for the ninth seed and has their eyes set on hosting a play-in game. The Warriors held the Mavericks to 100 points on Tuesday night.
When it mattered most, 2️⃣3️⃣ got buckets.@Verizon || Reliable Moments pic.twitter.com/QN3weX9TS3
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) April 3, 2024
The Pick: Rockets Team Total Under 112.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Atlanta Hawks (+11) at Dallas Mavericks (229.5 total)
With the Hawks on the second night of a back-to-back, I really like Dallas to cover at home. It's a big spread, which is never my favorite to take, but the Mavericks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at American Airlines Center. They are also coming off a 104-100 loss to the Warriors on Tuesday night.
Dallas is in a very tight Western Conference playoff race, where they can finish anywhere from third to eighth. Winning games convincingly, like tonight, is super important. The Mavericks are in the top seven in points per game and offensive rating at home this season. Luka Doncic is averaging 34.4 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds in 32 home games this season. Kyrie is averaging 26.3 at home, compared to 24.4 on the road.
The Mavericks have also played better on defense recently. In their last 10 games, the Mavs are third in defensive rating in the entire league. Dallas is in the top five for home threes per game this season; they like to shoot from outside. Luckily for them, they go up against a Hawks team that is pretty pedestrian at guarding the three-point line. Atlanta has been scoring points, but I think it's one of those games where Dallas jumps out to an early lead and maintains it.
Quin Synder's squad is 3-7 ATS on the road in their last 10 games and 12-24 ATS on the road this season. Dallas can score a lot of points in the paint and the Hawks do a poor job defending that area. Mix that in with the Mavericks improved defense, and I'm rolling with them despite the big number.
A walking bucket 🚶♂️ pic.twitter.com/g23MQzrbjE
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) April 3, 2024
The Pick: Mavericks -11 (-110 Caesars)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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