RADIO
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! After not making any picks yesterday, I'm back today to close out the third month of 2024. We have 10 games on the slate today and a lot of opportunities to finish the month strong.
On Friday, I went 1-1-1 in my three selections. My win came with the Sixers covering in the first quarter on the road in Cleveland. Philadelphia was given 3.5-points and only lost the quarter by three. The loss was due to the Wizards not showing up in the first half, and the push was from the Magic losing by exactly three points.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 3:30 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 31. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) at Houston Rockets (230.5 total)
The two hottest teams in the NBA face off in Houston tonight. I think there will be points early in this game, and I like the first half over points. In their last 10 games, the Rockets have averaged the fourth-most first-half points (59.3), and the Mavericks are seventh (58.8). In seven games in the Toyota Center this month, the Rockets are averaging 64.1 points. They've hit 51.3 percent of their FGAs and 40.1 percent from three. This team has been excellent at scoring the ball at home this month.
Dallas has hit 51.1 percent of its FGAs and only 31.8 percent of threes. There's room for improvement from a high-scoring team if they can hit more consistently from deep. They've been great at getting to the line, averaging over 11 attempts per game. Houston has been allowing nearly nine free-throw attempts, which places them in the bottom 12.
If you look at the opposing team's field goal percentage, you will see both teams are in the top five for the opening 24 minutes of their last 10 games. The one aspect I didn't like was how many shots they were allowing. Dallas is allowing the second-most first-half FGAs, and Houston is 17th. Houston is allowing the ninth most three-point attempts, and Dallas allows the 14th most. The Mavericks are also allowing nearly 10 FTAs.
Both offenses have been playing well, and if they will give each other shots and opportunities, I like both teams to take advantage of that. Luka Doncic has averaged 17.3 first-half points in his last nine games. Jalen Green is averaging 12.1 points in his last 10 games.
📊 37 PTS | 8 REB | 5 3PM | 76% TS
3/14 vs. Wizards pic.twitter.com/ZXfwSL06nM
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) March 30, 2024
The Pick: First Half Over 116.5 (-110 PointsBet)
Chicago Bulls (+8.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves (213.5 total)
I'm taking another team total under here and going with the Chicago Bulls. Minnesota held the Nuggets to 98 points Friday night in a really impressive 111-98 road victory. Chicago also played on Friday and lost 125-108 to Brooklyn. The Nets tied an NBA record with 18 three-pointers in the second half, but that still is no excuse for the Bulls only putting up 108.
Chicago has been scoring 113.1 points per game this month while hitting 48.1 percent of its FGAs and 36.3 percent from three. I'm still not sold on what I have been seeing from them offensively. Their performance against the Nets Friday night was a reminder that this team likely is not a top-10 offense. They scored 108 points, with 23 of those coming at the foul line.
In the Target Center this season, the Timberwolves have held teams to an NBA-low 102.9 points. Opposing teams are taking a decent amount of FGAs but they are hitting less than 43 percent of those attempts. From three, teams have only been able to get off 32.5 three-point attempts. Those teams haven't had much luck, only making 33.1 percent of those shots from deep.
Minnesota has been elite defensively all season, and I'm still not buying what I've seen recently from the Bulls. They are due to keep regressing like they did against the Nets on Friday.
can't stop Ant.
25 PTS / 5 REB / 5 AST / 3 STL pic.twitter.com/bs9hlZpPAQ
— Minnesota Timberwolves (@Timberwolves) March 30, 2024
The Pick: Bulls Team Total Under 102.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
Los Angeles Lakers (-6) at Brooklyn Nets (227 total)
I love the Lakers in this game. Los Angeles comes into Brooklyn off of a 109-90 loss in Indiana on Friday night. The Lakers were on a five-game winning streak before the loss. It was also the first time all month they've been held under 100 points. I think they come out focused tonight, and I'm targeting them in the first half of this game.
Neither team has been great at covering in these situations recently. LA is 4-6 ATS in the first half on the road in its last 10 games, while Brooklyn is only 2-8 ATS at the Barclays Center. The Nets are an NBA-best 25-11 ATS in the opening quarter at home but only 16-20 in the second quarter. Even if it stays close in the first quarter, I think the Lakers can control the second quarter and cover at halftime.
In March, the Lakers are second in first-half scoring, only behind the Boston Celtics. They are averaging 60.6 points while hitting 51.5 percent on FGAs and 40.4 percent from three. LA isn't making a lot of threes, but they've been efficient at hitting them. Brooklyn is outside of the top 15 in opponent three-point attempts this month. The opposing team has also hit 50.2 percent of its FGAs against the Nets in the opening two quarters of games this month. I like the Lakers to bounce back here and not mess around in the first half.
New pass unlocked 🏐 pic.twitter.com/wySDmk0yHD
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) March 29, 2024
The Pick: Lakers First Half -2.5 (-125 PointsBet)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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