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Tonight, we only have two games on the schedule. The Atlanta Hawks will host the Boston Celtics, and the Milwaukee Bucks will travel to New Orleans to take on Zion Williamson and the Pelicans.
Last night's work was not my finest. After starting the week out hot, I've hit a bit of a slide. Rather than wait till there are more games on Friday, I wanted to do a pick for both games tonight to try to redeem myself. My post-All-Star break now moves to 36-28.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EDT on Thursday, March 28. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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Milwaukee Bucks (-1) at New Orleans Pelicans (224 total)
The Bucks suffered an awful double-overtime loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night. However, Milwaukee did jump out to a 32-16 first-quarter advantage. That's where I'm leaning with them tonight. Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last five first quarters. New Orleans is 5-0, so both teams have been hot recently.
I'm going to go with the Bucks off of that bad loss to look strong early. In its last five, Milwaukee is averaging 30 first-quarter points per game. The Bucks are hitting 53.6 percent of their FGAs and 40.4 percent from three. When the Bucks are clicking on offense, they are such a dangerous team. This group also moves the ball well and is sixth in first-quarter assists in its last 10 games. New Orleans is only 13th in assists allowed per game this season. Milwaukee should be able to move the ball against them.
Both teams are very similar in terms of opening quarter defense over their last five games. New Orleans is first in defensive rating, while the Bucks are fourth. Milwaukee is 12th in offensive rating, and the Pelicans are 18th. It feels like a pretty even matchup, and the Bucks have extra motivation coming off that bad loss.
In his last three first quarters, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been averaging 6.7 points and 5.3 rebounds. Bobby Portis has also looked good off the bench, scoring 5.6 points in the opening quarter. Damian Lillard is only averaging five points, but he's playing 11.2 minutes. It's nice to know he will be out there and he's a player that can get hot any night. Maybe he does it tonight to start this game.
DAME STEAL. DAME SLAM. pic.twitter.com/nwWCAp5UJG
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 27, 2024
The Pick: Bucks First Quarter ML (-118 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Boston Celtics (-17.5) at Atlanta Hawks (227 total)
Just because I'm stubborn, I'm running it back with the Hawks first-half team total. Atlanta is on the second leg of a back-to-back and Boston is looking for revenge after its last matchup. The scheduling for this game is also bizarre because these teams played in Atlanta on Monday. Instead of playing back-to-back or having one day off, the Hawks hosted the Blazers Wednesday night. Boston hasn't played since Monday and has two days of rest going into tonight's matchup.
On Monday, the Celtics blew a massive lead and lost the game late. Boston has waited two days, and I think they'll be ready tonight. Jayson Tatum and Co. have held opponents to 53.4 first-half points this month. They are hitting 45.8 percent of their FGAs and 33.1 percent from three.
The Celtics are in the top 10, limiting three-point attempts, and I always like to see that. What makes Boston so good defensively is its discipline. They don't allow many free-throw attempts. Atlanta hasn't relied on FTAs a ton recently, but it is very reliant on the three-point line.
Boston is second in first-half defensive rating and first in net rating. This team is an absurd 30-7 ATS in the first half on the road this season. I do believe they will cover the first half, which likely means they will play well on defense. I love the revenge factor here for Boston, and I have my own personal revenge after last night.
with authority 😤 pic.twitter.com/3V6S0iF1sd
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) March 26, 2024
The Pick: Hawks First Half Team Total Under 53.5 (-120 PointsBet)
*Picks and odds are subject to change throughout the day. Monitor your books for the best lines.
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