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Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers! We have a very quiet five-game slate on the NBA schedule tonight. There are two games out of the five that stand out. The first is Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks taking on Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs in an inter-state rivalry. Anthony Edwards and Co. will try to stop Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets from winning on their home floor in Minnesota. This is a huge game late in the season for two teams fighting for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. I'm not interested in playing that game, but I am looking forward to it as a fan.
I went 2-1 on my picks yesterday. The Grizzlies didn’t even need the 3.5 points they were getting against the Kings in the first quarter, winning the opening stanza outright. With a low total of 211, I took advantage of this in the Warriors vs. Knicks game, taking the over, which hit. My only loss came on the Blazers team total of under 103.5. Portland only had 75 points entering the fourth quarter, and unfortunately scored 32 in the final frame. I improved my post-All-Star break record to 25-14.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, March 19. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: ML & Spreads
New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5) at Brooklyn Nets (216.5 total)
The Nets come into this game off of a tough overtime loss in San Antonio on Sunday night. I love the New Orleans defense, and at first glance, I thought about taking Brooklyn's team total under. My final decision fell on the Nets to cover at home. In the Barclays Center, Brooklyn is 18-13-3 ATS this season. The Nets have played their last six games on the road, going 1-5 in that stretch, but they return home tonight. Over those six games, they averaged 108.7 points while shooting 46.2% on FGAs, 37% from three, and they averaged 22 FTAs per game.
Comparing most middling offenses to the Pelicans' defense will look dumb, but I'm willing to give the Nets the benefit tonight. At home, the Nets have averaged nearly 114 points this season. They are hitting 46.5% of their FGAs and 37.2% of their threes. The 14.1 threes per game they hit rank sixth among home teams. On defense, they are in the top 12 with the fewest opponent points per game. Opposing teams are only shooting 46.4% on FGAs and 36.3% on threes against the Nets this season. The New Orleans offense can look incredible at times, but I think Brooklyn has the pieces to match up with them.
Cam Thomas has been playing really well lately. In his last five games, the Nets shooting guard has been averaging 26.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists while also shooting 43.8% from deep on 6.4 attempts per game. Brooklyn looked dejected after their overtime loss to the Spurs on Sunday. I think they play well and give a good effort tonight.
CLUTCH @DS17_FG pic.twitter.com/gOCYOaGWGI
— Brooklyn Nets (@BrooklynNets) March 18, 2024
The Pick: Nets +7.5 (-110 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Charlotte Hornets (+13.5) at Orlando Magic (202.5 total)
If you've been following my picks this season, you would know this is a spot where I take the Hornets' team total under. Normally, this number would sit around 99.5 to 103.5, but the books are playing it extra sharp, putting the Hornets' total at 95.5. That number is just unsettling for me, so I'm staying away from it.
The total I am playing is the Magic's team total over. Orlando is averaging 110.7 points per game this season and 113.7 in the Kia Center. In four home games in March, this number has dropped to 108.8, but I really like the matchup for them tonight. Charlotte has looked improved on defense in March, but they are going up against a team that has been awesome at home this season.
When these teams played on March 5 in Charlotte, the Magic won 101-89. Orlando only attempted 74 shots and 15 free throws. The Magic have averaged 85 FGAs and 25 FTAs in home games this season, so I see them having better shot volume tonight. It's also a big spread, and Orlando is an NBA-best 23-9 ATS at home this season. Assuming they cover a double-digit spread, I'd like to think they will go over this total in the process. The Magic have gone over this total in their last three games, and they are 17-14-1 at home this season when going over their team total. Hopefully, they can push that streak to four and get us a winner tonight.
textbook 🤌 pic.twitter.com/ak4dfeYJRt
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) March 17, 2024
The Pick: Magic Team Total Over 107.5 (-115 FanDuel)
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