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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our daily MLB player prop picks! This Sunday, I am excited to bring you five picks that I really like today and all of them are plus odds! That doesn't happen all that often and it might be the first time that it has happened for me all season!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, July 30, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Cristopher Sanchez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+100 DraftKings)
We kick things off with a pitcher that most baseball fans outside of Philadelphia probably haven't heard much about. Cristopher Sanchez didn't join the Philly rotation until mid-June but has put up some solid numbers as their fifth starter across eight starts this season.
Anytime we have someone with a sub-3 ERA and sub-1 WHIP across 42 innings, they're clearly doing something right. Sanchez isn't overpowering hitters with a 92-93 mph sinker, but he is getting a ton of ground balls and isn't walking anyone either.
We aren't chasing outs or a fantasy score here, though, we need strikeouts! Sanchez has a very modest 21.4% K% but is facing a Pirates team that continues to whiff at a high rate with their rolling last 30-day average against lefties being 25.8%.
I got burned with Aaron Nola getting stuck on six strikeouts last night, but I am going back to this spot again with Sanchez today -- we just need five from him to double our money. It certainly doesn't hurt that Sanchez is coming off his best start of the season either -- an 8K performance against a good Baltimore team.
Kenta Maeda OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
We go up one rung on the ladder here with Kenta Maeda, who needs six strikeouts for us to cash today against the Royals. The good news is that he's done that in all four starts in July since coming back from a midseason injury. One of those starts was a 9K performance against Kansas City on the Fourth of July, too.
Maeda doesn't overpower hitters either, but his splitter and slider have had some pretty impressive results. Perhaps the Royals will be more prepared for him this time around. But Maeda is pitching well and there's no reason to think he can't go six innings today in a good spot and get us a strikeout per inning.
Merrill Kelly OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+115 DraftKings)
And now for our biggest challenge of the day (and the best odds to go with it) as we are angling for 7+ strikeouts from Merrill Kelly. While he's never been known as a high strikeout pitcher in his career, Kelly is having his best strikeout season this year as he's sitting at a 25.4% K% with an impressive 12.4% SwStr%.
Kelly missed about a month with a minor injury but didn't skip a beat in his first start back as he held the Cardinals to just one run while striking out five over six innings. He threw 86 pitches, so we shouldn't worry much about a pitch count here. I have to keep attacking Seattle for strikeout props with good pitchers. They continue to whiff at a high rate and check in with the fourth-highest K% against RHP over the last month at 27.3%.
Kelly is a bulldog and if he can battle for six innings, I think he's capable of getting to seven strikeouts today. It's a number he's reached already eight times this season.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shohei Ohtani OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings)
I have been checking this prop every day first thing when I wake up for the last two weeks. When the prop is +100 or better, I have been betting it. It hasn't been a perfect system as Shohei Ohtani has had a few off games here and there, but it's been hitting more often than not.
I don't think I need to analyze Ohtani's splits or give you many stats to back up this play. Unless you are living in a cave, you know the tear that this man is on right now. But what if I told you (just for fun) that Ohtani is 7-16 against Jose Berrios in his career and that all seven hits were extra-base hits (four doubles, three home runs)?
That's not just nothing! The only issue we could run into is if teams start giving him the Barry Bonds treatment and walking him intentionally. But even then, we just need one swing of the bat to cash this prop and I'm going to keep riding it while the odds are good.
Josh Naylor OVER 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings)
Josh Naylor is having a tremendous year and not too many people outside of Cleveland or fantasy leagues know it. The Guardians' first baseman is hitting .309 with 15 home runs and 25 doubles (fourth-most). He's been Cleveland's most consistent hitter all season (yes, you heard me, Jose Ramirez!) and is smashing RHP.
Naylor gets Michael Kopech today, who I like picking on with power hitters. Kopech has allowed a 17.7% barrel rate to lefties and 53% hard contact. Naylor is in a good spot here and has been hitting this prop pretty consistently for me. He already has collected six hits against White Sox pitching in the first three games of this series, including three doubles.
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