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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Wednesday, May 1, 2024. Use Thunder Dan's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
We have baseball all day today with games starting as early as 1:10 PM EST and plenty of great targets for props. This is my first free betting piece of the MLB season as I am filling in for your usual Wednesday host, Brenton Kemp, and I am psyched to get you some bets that I have researched this morning.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. If you ever want to chat about any MLB bets, you can find me on X @ThunderDanDFS or hanging with the rest of the RotoBaller peeps in our Premium Discord.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Chris Sale OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
One of the first pitchers we have to look at for strikeouts on a daily basis now is whoever is facing the Seattle Mariners. While the Mariners have the highest strikeout rate over the last two weeks against righties at 29.5%, they're also fourth in K% vs. LHP over the same stretch at 28.6%.
We have a perfect storm today as we get a really good strikeout pitcher facing Seattle in Chris Sale. It's been a solid start to the 2024 campaign for Sale in Atlanta. He's been impressive over his first five starts, compiling a 3.12 SIERA, 26.8% K%, and 14.2% SwStr% (second on this slate only to Zack Wheeler).
Sale has seven strikeouts in three of his five starts, whiffing six in each of the other two outings. He's also been really efficient lately, walking just two hitters over his last two starts and going a full seven innings in each of his last three starts.
I think we see a big outing from Sale tonight and as the odds move on this prop, don't be afraid to target him at over 7.5 strikeouts at good odds. I think this could be his first 8+ strikeout game of the season, it's by far the best matchup he has had so far this year.
Quinn Priester over 4.5 strikeouts (-145 DraftKings)
The Pirates youngster bounced back nicely in his second start against the Giants, whiffing six over six scoreless frames. While he has only an 18.6% strikeout rate through his first ten innings, his 12.4% SwStr% suggests that his K rate should improve and that he could be a 24-25% strikeout pitcher once he settles in. He does have solid stuff and has shown good control, too.
The opponent here is another team we often target for strikeouts, especially with RHP - the Oakland Athletics. Oakland sports the third-worst K% vs. RHP over the last two weeks at 27.4% and we saw Mitch Keller come away with seven strikeouts yesterday in five innings even while giving up some hits and runs.
We just need five from Priester here, and I think he's talented enough to do it against this lineup. He really just has to stay in this game long enough and he should get there, so run prevention in the early innings will be key here.
Shota Imanaga + Zach Eflin UNDER 1.5 walks (+149 DraftKings)
I rarely recommend a parlay in these articles, but I also won't recommend a straight bet with odds over -160 either.
We have two of the best control pitchers in baseball towing the rubber today with Imanaga taking on the Mets and Eflin facing the Brewers.
Shōta Imanaga, Elevated 93mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/ano2enqlQP
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 26, 2024
Imanaga's K prop is set at 4.5, but the Mets are one of the toughest teams to strike out for lefties, so I am pivoting to his walk prop instead. New York is just middle of the pack in walk rate vs. lefties at 7.6% while Imanaga has a sparkling 2.8% BB%. Shota has walked more than one batter in a game just once this season.
Eflin is at 2.7% for the season and has gone over one walk just once in his last start against the White Sox. Milwaukee is walking 9% of the time vs. RHP, which is slightly better than average but nothing to avoid.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Trevor Larnach OVER 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings)
Chris Flexen stands out as a pitcher to target today with bats and there's no hotter hitter in the Minnesota lineup than outfielder Trevor Larnach. He has gone over this prop in five straight games and four of those games were multi-hit games.
It's a small sample size, but Larnach is sporting a .320 wOBA and .465 ISO vs. RHP this season. Meanwhile, Flexen has allowed a .405 wOBA and .344 ISO to LHH as well as a 48.3% hard contact rate and a massive 17.2% barrel rate.
Nick Senzel OVER 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings)
Here's another red-hot hitter in a good spot today and we get Senzel's prop at plus odds, just like Larnach.
Senzel slides up to the two-hole against LHP and hits behind the Nats' best hitter C.J. Abrams. Senzel has smacked five home runs over his last seven games and his numbers this season vs. lefties are out of this world (.583 ISO, .474 wOBA).
Andrew Heaney is a decent pitcher, but he throws his fastball more than most pitchers (around 53% of the time) and it's not a very good fastball either. I like Senzel's chances at an extra base hit in this spot and if the total bases prop is too rich for your blood, you can still bet on his hits + runs + RBI over 1.5 at -130 (I almost did, but went for the bet with the better odds).
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