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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Monday, May 15, 2023. Use Brenton's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bets recommendations to win money on sportsbooks.
It's Monday and we have a rock-solid 10-game MLB schedule on tap! With that comes plenty of value on the board as we comb through the best MLB player props on the slate.
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, May 15, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Shohei Ohtani UNDER 6.5 strikeouts (+114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's a dangerous game betting against Shohei Ohtano but this isn't the best spot for him tonight in Baltimore.
For starters, the Orioles don't strike out much as their 21.6% K% is tied for eighth in baseball. Secondly, they rake. Their .327 wOBA is tied for 10th alongside the Los Angeles Angels and while their home park is no longer hitter-friendly, that's a tough combination for Ohtani to overcome.
I also don't like Ohtani's splits entering this one. His strikeout rate on the road is only slightly below his home mark but his 4.01 ERA on the road is noticeably worse than his 2.10 mark at home. In other words, he'll have a tough time getting over this total if he gets roughed up against a problematic offense that simply does not strike out much.
Add in the fact that his 36.3% K% on the season is well above his 31.6% mark for his career and the under seems to be holding substantial value to get us started this evening.
Brad Keller UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (-104, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Brad Keller doesn't strike out anybody and he'll certainly have his hands full against this San Diego Padres lineup.
I mean, his tiny 16.3% strikeout rate for the season is right in line with his 17.3% mark. However, he's also struggling with his control as he sports an 18% BB%. In sum, Keller owns a disastrous -1.7% K-BB% on the season and only a 7.3% mark for his career.
Walks could be an issue against a Padres offense that sits second in the bigs with a 10.4% BB% on the season. The higher the pitch count, the less likely it is that a low-strikeout pitcher can approach this total, even at just 3.5.
Don't expect Keller to rack up many punchouts in this one tonight.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Corbin Carroll 2+ Total Bases (+115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The D-backs have one of the finest matchups on the slate as they take on the A's and right-hander Drew Rucinski in Oakland.
In short, the 34-year-old is struggling mightily in his return to the big leagues following several seasons pitching in Korea. Rucinski owns an 8.16 ERA but also a 7.28 FIP and 6.56 SIERA. Like Keller, Rucinski sports a negative K-BB% by way of a -4.1% mark. That doesn't bode well moving forward.
The 22-year-old Carroll is living up to expectations this season. He's hitting .277 with five homers, nine doubles, and a triple across 38 games. His attractive .200 isolated power bodes well against a pitcher sporting a 1.88 HR/9 on the campaign.
Against right-handed pitching, Carroll sports a .242 ISO and .867 OPS this season. His bat has been 36% above the league average against righties, as per his 136 wRC+.
Add it up and he should cruise past a couple of total bases in this matchup tonight.
Nick Castellanos 2+ Total Bases (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sign me up for Nick Castellanos against a left-hander any day of the week.
Alex Wood toes the rubber for the Giants in this one but he's not going to get deep into the game. He returned from an IL stint to throw just one inning while facing seven batters against the D-backs and allowing one earned run on three hits and a walk. Obviously, that's a tough outing and this is a tough matchup against the Phillies.
For his career, Castellanos is hitting .301 with a .218 ISO and .870 OPS versus left-handed pitching. Those figures are far superior to his .271 average, .191 ISO, and .782 OPS against righties, even if those figures are rock-solid themselves. His 131 wRC+ off lefties is notably above his 107 mark off righties.
Obviously, Wood is not in tip-top form while we have a hitter in Castellanos who is not only enjoying a big season but has made a living off of raking left-handed pitching. We're getting a solid price with the 31-year-old tonight.
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