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Corbin's fantasy football DEF draft sleepers and draft targets for 2025. His top team defenses (DST) to target based on their early season matchups in 2025.
We love hyping up sleepers and must-have targets at various positions. However, we sometimes forget about defenses. Sometimes those team defenses can provide spike weeks, helping fantasy managers win leagues. In redraft leagues, the playoffs matter, but we need to reach that point.
One way to increase our odds of reaching the fantasy football playoffs involves starting the season strong. Identifying team defenses with favorable matchups in the first few weeks, especially if they have talented players, can lead to turnovers and potential defensive touchdowns.
After scouring the pass and receiving defensive data, we examined the rushing numbers to identify potential team defenses to target to begin the season. We're weighing the 2024 defensive data heavily to begin the season, and then we should be using more of the recent 4-5 weeks once the 2025 season progresses.
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Top-12 Team Defenses (D/ST) in 2024
When we combine the rushing, pressure, and passing defensive data, we can somewhat quantify some of the top defenses for fantasy purposes. This doesn't mean these defenses will be good again in 2025, but it provides a starting point to see how they match up with a given offense in the first few weeks of the season before we weigh the more recent data.
The visual below shows the top-12 team defenses from 2024.
Bottom-12 Team Defenses (D/ST) in 2024
These defenses that ranked in the bottom 12 last season mostly make sense. The Panthers need an overhaul on the defensive end, though most of their attention focused on the offense. Most of the worst team defenses were a mixed bag, though the Giants, Texans, Rams, and Patriots showed flashes at times, whether it was pressuring the quarterback, stopping the run, or limiting the receiving yards.
Miami Dolphins D/ST
- Week 1: MIA at IND
- Week 2: MIA vs. NE
- Week 3: MIA at BUF
- Week 4: MIA vs. NYJ
The Dolphins have Anthony Weaver as their defensive coordinator for the second straight season. They allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback and the fifth-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. The Dolphins traded Jalen Ramsey to the Steelers for Minkah Fitzpatrick in a package deal.
The visual below shows the team defenses sorted by the lowest fantasy points per dropback allowed in 2024.
Unfortunately, the Dolphins lost Kader Kohou to a torn ACL, meaning they’ll need to eat into their secondary depth. Storm Duck (not a fake name) is the lone starting cornerback in their secondary. They’ve also had changes in their front seven, with several investments in their defensive line, including first-rounder DT Kenneth Grant and two other Day 3 picks.
That said, the Dolphins might be a tougher matchup against opposing offenses. They have a mixed bag of early matchups, playing the Colts, Patriots, Bills, and Jets in the first four weeks. We should expect regression in the pass defense unless Fitzpatrick and their fifth-round nickel corner, Jason Marshall Jr., step up.
Even their pass rush and run defense will take a hit because they blitzed at the 17th-highest rate, yet they brought pressure at the eighth-highest percentage. That might be somewhat related to the pass defense, making it difficult for quarterbacks to complete their reads, leading to high pressure rates.
Summary
The Dolphins project as a defense to stream against the Colts and Patriots, with the Jets potentially being turnover-prone if Justin Fields is the starter. We’ll want to see how the new-looking Dolphins shake out, especially since they have different personnel. Matthew Judon might be toward the tail end of his career, but we can dream on him reviving the pressure and pass rush he used to provide.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST
- Week 1: TB at ATL
- Week 2: TB at HOU
- Week 3: TB vs. NYJ
- Week 4: TB vs. PHI
A defense under Todd Bowles, coming off a season where they ranked ninth in adjusted yards before contact and fifth in pressure rate, makes for a solid investment. They blitzed at the second-highest rate behind the Cowboys last season, but they were beatable through the air at times. That’s evident by the Buccaneers' pass defense, which allowed the sixth-most FP/DB when using zone coverages, which they deployed at the highest percentage.
The visual below shows the team defenses sorted by the highest percentage of zone coverage in 2024.
They face the Falcons, Texans, Jets, and Eagles in the first four games. The Falcons (No. 7) and Jets (No. 12) ranked top 12 in pressure rate allowed last season. However, the Falcons lost RT Kaleb McGary to a significant leg injury, leading to potential pass-blocking concerns. The Buccaneers’ run defense stuffs the rushing game, and the Jets posted the sixth-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt.
The Texans invested in a second-round LT and added several other offensive linemen during the offseason. That’s an attempt to protect C.J. Stroud better after allowing the fourth-highest pressure rate. If the Buccaneers can take advantage of the reworked offensive line for the Texans early in the season, they could be one of the top early-season defenses for fantasy purposes.
Summary
Let’s see if the Buccaneers’ secondary can take a step forward in 2025 with most of the same players there. Jamel Dean (0.18 FP/RR and 0.97 YPRR) and Zyon McCollum (0.22 FP/RR and 1.05 YPRR) were pretty solid last season. However, Tykee Smith struggled with a 0.30 FP/RR and 1.11 YPRR, who played in the slot for them. They invested in a nickel cornerback in the third round (Jacob Parrish) with another corner from the Lions in free agency. Stream Tampa Bay in the first few weeks until they meet with the Eagles.
Chicago Bears D/ST
- Week 1: CHI vs. MIN
- Week 2: CHI at DET (Ben Johnson Revenge Game)
- Week 3: CHI vs. DAL
- Week 4: CHI at LV
The Bears were sneaky good against the pass, allowing the seventh-lowest FP/DB. Jaylon Johnson led the charge, with the third-lowest FP/RR and the eighth-fewest YPRR. Kyler Gordon (0.26 FP/RR and 1.34 YPRR) and Tyrique Stevenson (0.30 FP/RR and 1.39 YPRR) were more beatable through the air.
The Bears brought pressure at the ninth-highest percentage, yet blitzed at the fifth-lowest rate. That suggests the Bears’ pass rate could pressure the quarterback without bringing extra pass rushers. Unfortunately, the Bears ranked second-to-last in adjusted yards before contact allowed.
The Bears added two veteran defensive linemen, including DT Grady Jarrett and DE Dayo Odeyingbo. Plus, the Bears drafted DT Shemar Turner in the second round. That suggests the Bears attempted to fix the run-game issues.
With Ben Johnson bringing in Dennis Allen as the defensive coordinator, the Bears might use more man coverage in 2025. The Bears deployed the third-highest rate of zone coverage, with the Saints being more balanced and running man at 30.5 percent of the time (No. 13). It might benefit the Bears to utilize more man coverage, especially since Johnson, Gordon, and Stevenson forced a higher rate of incompletions during man.
Summary
It’s a small sample, but we should expect the Bears’ quality defense to take a slight step forward in 2025. The Lions will be the toughest matchup for the Bears, but it could be one of those contrarian plays. Meanwhile, the Vikings struggled with pressure (eighth-highest), plus the Raiders (fourth-lowest) and Cowboys (seventh-lowest) struggled to generate yards before contact. If you wait on defenses, the Bears should be available as one of your last picks.
New York Jets D/ST
- Week 1: NYJ vs. PIT (Aaron Rodgers Revenge Game)
- Week 2: NYJ vs. BUF
- Week 3: NYJ at TB
- Week 4: NYJ at MIA
The Jets finished as the second-best defense in 2024 based on their underlying metrics against the run and pass game. They ranked second in pressure rate, second in adjusted yards before contact per attempt, and 14th in FP/DB. Under Jeff Ublrich, the Jets ran man coverage (No. 7) and allowed the fifth-lowest FP/DB.
The visual below shows the team defenses sorted by the highest percentage of man coverage in 2024.
With Aaron Glenn as the head coach, they might maintain their man coverage tendencies, since the Lions used it the most (45 percent). Glenn brought in Steve Wilks as the defensive coordinator. Wilks most recently coached in San Francisco in the same role in 2023.
The Jets made a few additions to their defensive line in the offseason, including a few defensive tackles and two veteran defensive backs who might start for them with Tony Adams and D.J. Reed gone. They drafted three defensive players on Days 2 and 3.
The Steelers' offensive line allowed the third-highest pressure rate, with the Bills at 15th. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers and Dolphins ranked inside the top seven with the lowest pressure rates. The Buccaneers ranked seventh, and the Bills were 10th in adjusted yards before contact. It might be strength against strength when facing the Jets for the Bills and Buccaneers, but the Steelers also struggled to run block (No. 24).
Summary
Glenn might’ve been aggressive to a fault with the Lions’ defense. However, we should expect the Jets to buy into Glenn, especially since they already performed well using a high rate of man coverage. It might be risky to stream the Jets against the Bills and Buccaneers, but they should be one of the toughest defenses.
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