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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, May 8, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 18-14 (+0.47 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Pirates
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PIT -180
COL: Kyle Freeland | PIT: Mitch Keller
Unfortunately, Sunday baseball got the best of us, as we took two losses on the day. We'll look to bounce back here on Monday, though, with a pair of first-five plays.
We'll start out in Pittsburgh, where the visiting Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound. Freeland (3-3, 3.76 ERA) has had a pretty good season thus far but is dealing with a neck injury that he reaggravated on Wednesday against the Brewers. Nevertheless, he projects to a 4.48 SIERA today against a Pirates team that ranks fourth in wOBA (.357) and fifth in wRC+ (121) against lefties.
The Pirates will be sending Mitch Keller to the mound. Keller (3-1, 3.32 ERA) could be having his breakout season in 2023, with his strikeout percentage rising and walk rate declining. He projects to a SIERA of 3.65 in this one against a Rockies lineup that ranks 17th in wOBA (.316), and 25th in wRC+ (81) against righties.
We're getting solid odds on the first-five run line here with Pittsburgh, at -134. While the Pirates have struggled of late, I'll look for them to start this one off with a bang.
Pick: Pirates F5 -0.5 (-134), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.34 unit to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Giants
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: SF -240
WSH: Jake Irvin | SF: Anthony DeSclafani
I'll wrap up things up for tonight out west in San Francisco, as the Nationals continue their west coast road trip and open things up against the Giants at 9:45 pm Eastern tonight.
The Nationals will send righty Jake Irvin to the mound. Irvin (0-0, 2.08 ERA) had a solid first outing on the season, tossing 4.1 scoreless innings against the Cubs on Wednesday. However, you could say he got a bit lucky, walking four batters in as many innings. He projects to a 7.23 SIERA in this matchup against the Giants, a team that's smashed righties so far this season, ranking fourth in wOBA (.347) and wRC+ (119).
On the other hand, the Giants will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound. DeSclafani (3-1, 2.13 ERA) has dominated hitters in 2023; tossing quality starts in five of his first six starts on the young season, including an eight-shutout-inning performance against the Astros last Tuesday. He projects to a 3.95 SIERA in this one against a Nationals team that ranks dead last in both wOBA (.281) and wRC+ (72) against righties.
We're getting solid odds on the F5 run line here as well, at -135 on FanDuel.
Pick: Giants F5 -0.5 (-135), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.35 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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