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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, April 30, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 13-11 (+0.35 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Red Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BOS -124
CLE: Logan Allen | BOS: Chris Sale
I had a tough day on Monday, dropping both of the plays. Good reads sometimes yield poor results, and that's exactly what we saw.
I'll look to bounce back this afternoon, where I'll be backing the Red Sox against Logan Allen and the Guardians. Allen (1-0, 1.50 ERA) had a good first start of the season, allowing just one run across six innings while striking out eight Marlins last Sunday. This was a big turnaround following his poor 2022, and my model isn't buying the hype, projecting him to a 5.57 xFIP and 33.8% hard contact allowed this afternoon.
He'll take on Chris Sale, who's taking the ball for the Sox today. Sale (1-2, 8.22 ERA) looked to turn a corner in his start on April 18 against the Twins, where he tossed five innings of one-run ball, but struggled against the Orioles on Monday, surrendering five runs on nine hits. He projects to a 4.19 xFIP and 31.6% hard contact rate against a Guardians lineup that ranks in the bottom third of wRC+ and wOBA against southpaws this season.
We can get the Red Sox at -130 on FanDuel, which I consider pretty good value here.
Pick: Red Sox Money Line (-130), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.3 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Orioles @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +130
BAL: Kyle Bradish | DET: Spencer Turnbull
I'll take a look at a first inning under for the second play of the day, heading out to Comerica Field as the Orioles and Tigers play a matinee showdown.
The Orioles will send Kyle Bradish (1-1, 6.30 ERA) to the mound. Bradish has made three starts on the season and has gone through all three without allowing a run in the first inning. Two of those games came on the road, and he'll take on a Tigers lineup today that's scored in just two of nine games at home and three of 24 games overall.
The Tigers will send Spencer Turnbull (1-3, 7.25 ERA) to the mound this afternoon. Like Bradish, despite the poor ERA, Turnbull has been very good in the first inning. He's allowed a run in just one of five starts overall and is a perfect two-for-two at Comerica this season. He'll take on an Orioles lineup that's scored in just two of 12 first innings on the road and in just six of 25 overall.
We're getting pretty good odds on the NRFI here, with it sitting at -120 on FanDuel Sportsbook as I'm typing this. Given the small sample size, my model gives the NRFI nearly an 80% chance of hitting. While I don't think the odds are that great, I think there's more than enough data to back this up.
Pick: First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-120), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.20 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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