Five Risky Fantasy Football Running Back Buys To Gamble On In 2024 Dynasty Leagues

July 14, 2024

Alex inspects five risky fantasy football running back buys in dynasty leagues that can push the lineup on your team over the edge for the 2024 season.

Over the past few seasons, there has been quite a changing of the guard in fantasy football. There once was a time when you could lock up your fantasy championship by garnering the most impressive stable of running backs in your league. For many years, the elite running backs -- and even the not-so-elite -- were game-breaking assets for your fantasy team who were reliable and consistent yearly. However, with the shifting mindset of the NFL to a more pass-centric environment, those days are gone, as now wide receivers rule the land. But, there are signs that the RBs may be making a comeback, and understanding these strategic shifts is critical to successful team management.

Yes, the wideouts indeed offer a bit more stability on a yearly basis -- and they absolutely have a longer shelf life aside from a few RB outliers (looking at you, Christian McCaffrey). The change in offensive tendencies prompted a reaction from NFL defenses, though, and over the last two seasons, we've seen a significant uptick in the amount of zone they have played. Most of this has been of the "Cover 2" fashion, and the best way to combat that is by keeping the defense honest with a short, underneath style of passing and pounding the rock.

With this in mind, I'd like to take a look at five risky running back buys in dynasty formats that could pay impressive dividends. These players are risky buys for a reason, but if the moves pay off, they could be the difference-makers that lead you to a first-place finish in your league. The potential for success is there, and it's up to you to seize it.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Admittedly, I faded Jahmyr Gibbs in a few 2023 rookie drafts -- that seems to have been errant. Although he caught 104 balls over his three collegiate seasons -- which is quite rare nowadays -- I wasn't in love with his overall profile despite his blazing speed.

Well, Gibbs made me a believer in his rookie season. He finished 2023 with nearly 1,000 yards rushing (945) on just 182 carries (5.19 YPC), chipping in 52 receptions for an additional 316 yards. Gibbs' 11 touchdowns were enough to make him the RB10 in every format, and he showed us the kind of dynamic playmaker he'll be for years to come. Incredibly, he had a near-even split in touches with his backfield mate David Montgomery (235 to 234), who scored 13 TDs of his own.

The reward is clearly present with a move to acquire Gibbs, but so is the risk. He proved how efficient he can be on a less-than-workhorse workload, but Montgomery is going nowhere, and it's evident that the Detroit Lions prefer using two RBs in their system.

Two seasons ago, Detroit deployed a similar scheme with the likes of D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, while the latter led the league in rushing scores (17). However, Montgomery is another year older, and Gibbs is far more explosive -- and the clear preferred option in the receiving game.

Currently, the former No. 12 overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft is the RB4 in Sleeper dynasty ADP. It will cost you a pretty penny to make a move to get him, but if you're an obvious contender in your league, it might be worth it to do so. Two generic (projected late) first-round rookie picks are a good trade for a player with the upside to finish as the RB1 overall if Montgomery were to miss time.

JAHMYR GIBBS HAS 22.2 POINTS AND SCORED HIS FIRST NFL TOUCHDOWN ‼️ pic.twitter.com/3HyBZjPFrh

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 22, 2023

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs was stellar in 2022. It was the first (and only) time he played an entire season in his five-year career, and he finished as the RB3 in PPR and half PPR formats on the back of 1,653 rushing yards and 12 scores. He also caught the second-most passes of his career (53).

It seemed like Jacobs had cemented himself as a fantasy superstar, but after an early-season holdout in 2023, he took a significant step back. Many variables could have factored into his subpar season. It's possible he just wasn't in the best shape of his life after missing the entirety of the Raiders' training camp due to the holdout. That may or may not be accurate (Jacobs claimed he was doing his own personal workouts in the meantime), but the departure of Derek Carr last season could have likely played a role in his down year as well. His yards per carry dipped nearly by 1.5 from 4.86 to 3.45 as he saw 123 fewer touches overall and scored half as many TDs (six).

However, in 2024, Jacobs finds himself in a brand new situation on an exciting Jordan Love-led Green Bay offense. He's the clear-cut No. 1 RB in Matt LaFleur's scheme after signing a four-year, $48 million deal, and he seems to have put the hamstring injury he suffered early on in the Packers' mandatory minicamp behind him. He should have a chance to regain at least some of his efficiency from his standout 2022 season. While he may not rush for over 1,600 yards again, he stands a good chance to eclipse at least 1,000 on a rising Packers offense.

At 26 years old, the former 24th overall pick in the 2019 draft is getting a bit long in the tooth as far as running backs go, and buying an aging RB that relies primarily on his vision and power is always a risky proposition. However, Jacobs is the RB10 in Sleeper ADP, and it's very possible you can get him for just a first-round rookie selection.

In fact, earlier this offseason, I was able to trade Jacobs for the rookie 1.06. You probably won't have to pay that much, but if you do and his 2024 production is somewhere in the middle of his fantastic 2022 and underwhelming 2023 -- it'll be worth it.

👀 First look at new Packers RB @iAM_JoshJacobs 🔥#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/OgoaT8jS2D

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) March 14, 2024

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

After playing second fiddle to Leonard Fournette in the Tom Brady-led Bucs offense in 2022, Rachaad White was finally fully unleashed in Dave Canales' new scheme in 2023. With Baker Mayfield under center, White handled 336 total touches en route to an RB4 finish in PPR formats.

That astronomical touch total was more than he had garnered over his entire career at Arizona State (275). White actually played the most snaps of any RB in 2023 (861) and averaged 50.6 snaps per game -- not missing a single contest. That is Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley's levels of participation, and White has proven his durability as he has played in every game of his professional career.

U N O 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1DywmcDIV2

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) April 3, 2024

While he was excellent through the air -- finishing with 64 receptions for 549 yards and three TDs -- he was not as efficient as a pure runner, averaging just 3.64 YPC toting the rock 272 times. It's fair to wonder if Tampa Bay's offense will fare as well as last year after Canales' departure or if White will get as many touches as he did a year ago, considering his inefficiency in the ground game. I'm more worried about the former, but the addition of fourth-round pick Bucky Irving -- a capable pass-catcher -- doesn't help his case.

With all that said, White was someone I snagged in every 2022 rookie draft I could get him in. Watching his college tape reminded me of David Johnson, and I still hold that same view of him. He's a dynamic dual-threat athlete who has shown us he can handle a full workload.

The Arizona State product is the RB13 in Sleeper dynasty drafts this season -- nine spots lower than his 2023 finish -- and that feels like his floor, even if he loses some touches. I'd be surprised if you couldn't get him for a late first, but maybe you don't have to spend that much. Go poking around and see if you can get him for two generic seconds first.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

Even though Alvin Kamara missed four games in 2023 (three due to suspension and one after suffering a sprained ankle halfway through Week 17), he still ended the season as the RB11 in PPR. While he saw his fewest rush attempts since 2019 (180) and his YPC took a slight hit (3.86), he still racked up 75 receptions, which was good for second in the league amongst running backs. Only Breece Hall had more with 76, and that was in four more games on just nine more targets.

Watching him play, it didn't seem like Kamara lost a step. He was still the explosive, dual-threat RB we've come to know since his rookie season in 2017. I surmise that the Saints' stagnant offensive scheme is the primary culprit for his lowered efficiency. I've touched on this before, but New Orleans ran motion at the snap at one of the lowest rates in the league. Outside of Chris Olave and the occasional splash play from Rashid Shaheed -- there wasn't too much competition for Kamara as far as touches go. It was also thought that rookie RB Kendre Miller might eat into his workload, but that did not come to fruition.

Fortunately, the Saints fired offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael this offseason and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, the former offensive passing game specialist for the San Francisco 49ers. Kubiak performed admirably last season in that role, and while the Saints don't laud the same weaponry as San Fran, I'm excited about what he can do for their offense.

The case against Kamara is easy -- a 28-year-old RB in an offense that underwhelmed the previous year isn't typically the type of player you want to buy. His game has aged well, though, and should continue to do so, as he'll remain a primary target behind Olave in the passing game. Michael Thomas is no longer a target threat after his release, and the Saints drafted a lone skill player -- WR Bub Means -- in the fifth round of the 2024 draft.

It'd be shocking if you had to pay a first to acquire him, as at this point, a Kamara inquiry should cost you nary more than a second. I like him as a solid RB2 this year with RB1 upside if scoring opportunities become more frequent in a revamped New Orleans offense.

4️⃣1️⃣@A_kamara6 pic.twitter.com/5f8DVdTfxx

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) June 11, 2024

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

After his breakout rookie season in 2021, where he finished as the PPR RB3, Najee Harris has barely sniffed a top-12 finish the last two seasons. His efficiency was actually up last year on the ground and through the air from 2022, but he scored just eight touchdowns en route to an RB23 finish on a woeful Pittsburgh Steelers offense led by Kenny Pickett that scored just 17.8 points per game -- yet somehow still went 10-7 and made the playoffs.

Despite Harris leading the backfield in total touches, yards, and touchdowns, Jaylen Warren received more targets and receptions and had a better YPC -- proving to be an effective change-of-pace back. Warren isn't going anywhere, which isn't much of a boon to Harris's outlook, as Pittsburgh declined his fifth-year option this offseason.

However, the Steelers drastically changed their offense when they traded Pickett away to the Philadelphia Eagles, replacing him with the tandem of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. For now, Wilson stands to be the starter and should be a vast improvement over Pickett in nearly every aspect.

It wasn't all bad for Harris last season, as he played much better in the second half. From Week 12 on, he accumulated more than half of his 1,035 rush yards (536), scoring five of his eight TDs. He's durable -- having never missed a game in his three-year career, and I'm more encouraged about his 2024 prospects with the news that he has dropped some weight.

It seems Harris is more motivated in his contract year. You should be able to snag him for a second-round pick if you choose to do so, as his RB25 ADP (No. 80 overall) doesn't speak to that of a player who requires forking over a first for.

Najee Harris out there throwing defenders out the club
pic.twitter.com/9jgWxZTqas

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) September 19, 2021

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