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Chris Durell brings you DraftKings fantasy NASCAR advice, DFS lineups picks and sleepers analysis for Chris Durell brings you DraftKings fantasy NASCAR advice, DFS lineups picks and sleepers analysis for the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway
Welcome back NASCAR fans. The Monster Energy Cup Series Playoffs roll on to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend for the second race of the round of eight. With his win last weekend at Martinsville, Kyle Busch is the first driver to punch his ticket to the Championship race at Homestead, Miami and that leaves seven drivers who will be fighting for the final three spots over the next two races.
Looking at the last six races here at Texas on the cheatsheet, it is clear that dominator points will be huge as at least one driver has led 100 or more laps in all six races and at least two drivers have led 50 or more laps in five of the last six races. Along with leading laps(.25 points per lap led), fast laps(.5 points per fast lap) are also key and there have been seven or more drivers with double-digit fast laps in each of the last six races. This makes it very important to not only pay attention to the final two practices but also the 10-lap averages from those practices. The following picks are based on the opening practice and qualifying speeds so make sure to check the cheeatsheet following the final two practices as the overall model will be adjusted based on those speeds.
Daily Fantasy NASCAR: DraftKings DFS Lineup Picks - AAA Texas 500
Martin Truex Jr.($11,000)
His price is starting to separate from the pack and it makes perfect sense as he has dominated the mile and a half tracks this season. Six of his seven wins this season have come on intermediate tracks where he has recorded an average of 96.5 Draftkings points, over 30 more per race than any other driver. He leads all eight remaining drivers in the playoff picture in points but is not yet locked in so I fully expect him to get up front and contend all day. He is an elite play in all formats.
Kevin Harvick($9,800)
Harvick has seen his salary drop below the $10K mark once again and that makes him a terrific play in all formats this week. He has yet to win a race here at Texas in his career but he has been very consistent finishing with a Top 10 in six straight races including four Top 5's and two runner-ups. Harvick is also second to Martin Truex Jr. with an average of 62.6 DraftKings point per intermediate race in 2017.
Chase Elliott($9,100)
After being dumped by Denny Hamlin in the closing laps last week, Elliott faces an uphill battle with two races remaining in this round. It also didn't help that the #24 team failed pre-qualifying inspection and will start back int eh 34th position on Sunday. For fantasy, however, it makes him lock play in all formats this week as he provides us with elite place differential value. He has also raced here at Texas three times in his young career and finished Top 10 in all three races.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.($7,900)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. returns to Texas for the final time before retiring at the end of the season and makes a terrific value play in all formats. His price is back in the $7K where I am most comfortable using him and he has finished inside the Top 10 here at Texas in five straight and six of his last seven races. He also leads all drivers in the sub $8K range with an average of 39.4 DraftKings points per intermediate race this season.
NASCAR DFS Cheat Sheet
Don't have the time to search multiple sites looking for NASCAR stats and data?
Check out my DFS NASCAR cheatsheet which includes Track History(2-Year Trend & Career), Track Type History(2-Year Trend), Current Form, Practice/Qualifying Data, and a weighted system to get an overall rank for each driver each race. Check out it now while it's still in BETA mode and FREE to everyone. Also, be sure to check out the Race by Race Trends Sheet.
DFS & Fantasy NASCAR Chat Room
If you have any questions leading up to the race hit me up in the chat below!
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