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NFL free agency and the draft have reshaped position groups across the league. One of those groups that has really been shaken up is the wide receiver position.
With those shake-ups comes the inevitable: with new players entering the league and old players changing teams, some guys are going to end up seeing their usage go down. It happens to everyone – that's just how professional sports work, you know?
Below are three veteran wide receivers who should lose targets in 2023, with an analysis of why their targets will be down.
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Diontae Johnson - Pittsburgh Steelers
Last season, Diontae Johnson's 147 targets were seventh in the NFL. It was the third season in a row that he saw over 140 targets. Johnson didn't manage to do as much as you'd expect with that many targets. He caught just 58.5% of his passes for 882 yards and failed to find the end zone.
Some advanced stats from PlayerProfiler also help illustrate the way the targets and the impact didn't necessarily line up. He was seventh in targets, but 95th in yards per targets and 100th in true catch rate. Johnson was 13th in receptions, but 100th in fantasy points per target and 47th in yards after catch.
Johnson's days as the target hog in Pittsburgh might be coming to an end after an offseason that saw the team bring in Allen Robinson. Add in that George Pickens will be entering his second NFL season and that Pat Freiermuth had 98 targets last season and I just don't see how Johnson ends up with the same volume he had last year.
That's not to say he won't still lead the Steelers in targets. I've got enough concerns about Robinson to not expect the veteran wideout to come in and be the WR1 on this Steelers team. However, a healthy Robinson should see five or six targets per game, and that's going to cut some into what Johnson does.
So, while he should still see triple-digit targets, the fact that the Steelers have so many pass-catching weapons — not to mention the concerns I have about Kenny Pickett being the guy who's tasked with getting the ball to those weapons — has me expecting a fairly big drop-off in targets for Johnson this year, down from the 147 last year and closer to maybe 120 or so?
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean Johnson's fantasy performance in 2023 will be worse than in 2022. He only averaged 8.1 fantasy points per game in half PPR last year, largely because he never found the end zone. Even if the targets drop, Johnson should have some positive regression in terms of touchdown scoring, which might ultimately even some things out. I view him as a WR3/4 play next season.
Zay Jones - Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars made a big swing by trading for Calvin Ridley, who hasn't played since 2021 and hasn't played a full season since 2020. It stands to reason that the team is going to make sure Ridley gets as many chances as possible to show that he still has the talent to be one of the NFL's best wideouts.
And why wouldn't they do whatever to make sure he's involved? Sure, it was a while back, but his last full season saw him catch 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns with the Falcons. Ridley's a top-end talent.
That leaves Zay Jones, whose 121 targets last season ranked 21st in the NFL, as kind of the odd guy out here. Christian Kirk is a more explosive player than Jones, so I feel confident in saying that unless there's an injury or Ridley's just lost his touch after his extended absence, Jones is looking at being third in the pecking order at best.
That "at best" is important too. The Jaguars also have Evan Engram at tight end, and Engram saw 98 targets last year. A 2023 projection for Jones probably looks a lot closer to what Marvin Jones Jr. did last season for Jacksonville when he was targeted 81 times and brought 46 of those in for 529 yards and three scores.
In that scenario, Jones goes from being a WR3 play like he was last season to being...well, I wouldn't say "undraftable," but someone who looks like more of a WR5/6 option.
Brandin Cooks - Dallas Cowboys
Cooks played just 13 games for the Texans last season, but his 93 targets were tied for 48th-most in the NFL. When he was on the field for Houston, the team worked to get him the football, in large part because the team just didn't have a ton of talent outside of Cooks.
Now he heads to the Cowboys, where he'll share the field with CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. What kind of role can Cooks, who turns 30 in September, carve out with those two needing targets as well?
I guess it kind of depends on how we view the Cowboys receiving corps. Lamb's the WR1, but Gallup and Cooks both have a viable shot at the WR2 role. Gallup wasn't great in 2022, as he averaged just 30.3 receiving yards per game. Cooks might be a few years older, but he played better than Gallup last year. Gallup's continuity with the team might give him a slight edge, but I'd be willing to say that Cooks probably ends up second on this team in targets.
The problem with that? It's still a reduced role over what he had last year. CeeDee Lamb was fourth in the NFL in targets last season with 156, and there's no reason to think Dak Prescott won't look his way a significant portion of the time again. The best case scenario for Cooks is probably, what? Dalton Schultz had 89 targets last year and Noah Brown and Gallup both had 74 targets. Assuming a tight end emerges to replace some of Schultz'a performance, Cooks is probably looking at a best-case scenario where he gets 10-15 fewer targets than last season and a worst-case scenario where his targets drop below Gallup's.
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