RADIO
I've been a little jaded writing some of these articles, not for any reason other than wondering if the creeping feeling of "everyone is listening to/writing all of the same advice" was starting to creep in a little heavier. I had many of the same sleepers/avoids as Matthew Berry, I've been tending to agree with most of my Rotoballer writers about their player highlights (Alexander Mattison really jumped up since my writing, hasn't he? Not my doing, but still.) And then I wandered into my workplace's breakroom, where I saw two employees from another department talking fantasy lineups.
Person 1: "So here's my lineup for Week One"
Person 2: "Let's hear it"
Person 1: "Russell Wilson"
Person 2: "Good"
Person 1: "Mike Evans"
Person 2: "Cool"
Person 1: "Christian McCaffrey"
Person 2: "Mmmm" (not a positive mmm. A negative mmmm)
Person 1: "George Kittle"
Person 2: "Oh, no, I don't like him either. Whose his quarterback? Jimmy G? Yeah. Can you get anybody else?"
*I'm holding onto a table at this point, pretending I'm looking for something, unrelated to me physically hurting
Person 1: "Uhhh... I don't know, I guess I'll look"
Person 2: "Yeah, of course. Ok who else?"
Person 1: "Josh Jacobs?"
Person 2: "UGH! THE RAIDERS?!"
At this point, I had to leave. I was reminded that this was the reason you can't trust that everyone is getting the same information from the same sources...
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Atlanta Falcons
FILL IN THE BLANK: You can get ______ for free
In some leagues, no matter how deep, I've seen guys fall off the board completely. I've got a league where no one really wants Marquise Goodwin, despite the fact that it's 12 team/20 spots. The same can be said for Mohamed Sanu, who isn't going to be worth grabbing in any sort of dynasty or keeper league, but the 30-year-old WR finished between Corey Davis and Mike Williams in leagues in 2018, and he's likely to still be a very valuable piece of the Atlanta offense. From week 14 on, he saw no less than six targets, with an average of just slightly less across 16 games.
Sanu is simply one of those guys, in the 14th round, who will make your team better in bye weeks and injury concerns. If you don't need to get a rookie who improves year over year, get a veteran who is a virtual lock to finish in the top 50 at his position.
Where To Take Him: Last Round
Confidence: High
Timeline: Sanu will be on your team all year
Carolina Panthers
The rise of _________ has meant the opportunity to draft _________ for cheaper
I have a friend who is, quite frankly, the aggregate of all top-level fantasy advice. So when he called me to tell me about Curtis Samuel, I figured that he was one of many, leading to the drop of D.J. Moore. Since July, Moore has dropped almost two rounds from the beginning of round five to the end of round six, while Curtis Samuel has risen a two full rounds to the beginning of the eighth. The hype is incredibly high, and people have pointed to the fact that Samuel and Moore had the exact same amount of targets.
This is fine, but because Moore isn't having quite the same camp that Samuel is, but he still is 2018's 45th most targeted receiver as a rookie. He's bound to improve, and there's not too much data I can give that reinforces the obvious; Moore is a lock to be one of the two best receivers on his team, and even if you love Samuel, Moore is still an incredible value at the end of the sixth or the beginning of the seventh. Embrace the value
Where To Take Him: End of 6th/Beginning of 7th
Confidence: Medium
Timeline: All year
New Orleans Saints
For dynasty leagues, add __________ to your watch list.
A. Ted Ginn
B. Keith Kirkwood
C. Tre'Quan Smith
D. Austin Carr
My answer here is technically Tre'Quan Smith. But this situation is more like the Denver Broncos wide receiver situation than analysts are giving either team credit for. At first glance, the New Orleans Saints look to be good-but-not-great at wide receiver, as it's Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr., and everyone else. In reality, Thomas is so far above the rest that the 34-year old Ginn is by no means a lock and quite a few talented players at going to end up on the cutting room floor. Hell, I like Simmie Cobbs, but I can't guarantee he'll make the team.
The third receiver, as of this writing, is Smith. He's had a bad camp, leaving very little on the field performance-wise for the Saints to feel good about, but he's another good end of the draft guy who can improve with a little confidence and a lot of luck. Smith may not be on the team as of this writing if the coaching staff really doesn't believe in him, but if he is still here (and especially if Ginn is injured), consider him a Geronimo Allison-lite type talent who could reach a WR3 ceiling by the end of the year for a very end-of-the-draft price.
Where To Take Him: Last Round
Confidence: Low
Timeline: October is your make or break for Smith
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The ultimate post-hype sleeper is ___________
This is a *much* more barren section than last year, where I said that Godwin, Howard, and Peyton Barber were all super talented players who were being left for dead in drafts. They all are going much higher in 2019, so much so that there aren't a lot of scraps left for me to go after here. But there is a WR3 who is captivating my interest.
I'm curious to see if Breshad Perriman is going to stick with this team. Jones is an enigma, but considering Peyton Barber is rather new to his position, it may just be two very hyped committee backs who butt heads for success. Cameron Brate is the definition of post-hype, but simply not endorsable. Perriman is seeming to be a talent who finally sticks in Tampa Bay after washing out of Baltimore and Cleveland.
But is that an issue with Perriman, or his coaches, specifically his time spent in Cleveland? After not ending up factoring into the plans of the team outside of 25 receptions, Arians has gone all in on Perriman, being quoted as saying "He’s fast, he’s big, he can catch, he’ll block – doing everything that we are asking of him and he has a major role right now.”
I'm nervous as hell to grab Perriman, and have no incentive to add him, especially because I simply don't have anything to base this newfound enthusiasm off of. But as I noted last year with Christian McCaffrey, I tend to believe what the coaches say about the guys slightly off the radar. Perriman is all the way off, so he's on my watch list.
Where To Take Him: Last Round
Confidence: Low
Timeline: You should see 25 targets by the end of September if he's going to make an impact on your team
BONUS: Your last pick should be _________
You're gonna see Dare Ogunbowale's name floated around as a third-down receiver as a guy who has rapidly climbed up the fantasy charts, but for redraft or shallower leagues is still a last pick type guy. His training camp success is the impediment I see to a guy like Perriman eventually making his mark, but that's the joy of talented receivers and the NFL.
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