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With the first NFL preseason game set to kick off this week, the fantasy football draft season is officially upon us. It is the most wonderful time of the year to overreact to training camp buzz, dish out hot takes and predictions, and join a few fantasy leagues as we impatiently await Week 1. The team here at RotoBaller is just as excited as anyone, which should be incredibly obvious given the amount of news and analysis we're churning out at this point of the offseason.
Among this wave of content is our Breakouts, Busts, and Locks series. In this series, we take a look at each team and identify potential overachievers, underachievers, and safe picks considering the current average draft position of its players. This article will highlight such players, one in each category, from the 2022 AFC South Champion Jacksonville Jaguars.
There are a handful of fantasy-relevant options in this high-powered offense, but we will be focusing on Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, and Trevor Lawrence for the purposes of this article. All three of these players were extremely valuable in fantasy leagues last season, so it will be interesting to see if they repeat their success, improve upon it, or take a step backward.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Trevor Lawrence
You could certainly make the argument that Trevor Lawrence already had a breakout campaign last season, but I think we have yet to see the young quarterback's true ceiling. After a rather miserable rookie season in 2021, Lawrence proved he was the real deal under head coach Doug Pederson in 2022, passing for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns en route to a QB8 fantasy finish. If Lawrence manages the exact same season in year three, he should return value on his fantasy ADP of QB8 in the back end of the fifth round. In other words, he is essentially being drafted at his floor.
Widely considered one of the top three quarterback prospects of all time, Lawrence is still just 23 years old and entering his second season working with the aforementioned Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor. Despite how impressive Lawrence may have been last year, it is not only reasonable to believe that he will improve in his second stint in this offensive system, it is expected. He is already showing glimpses of development just a few days into training camp.
Even if Lawrence does take the next step and become the quarterback many think he can be, he will need to have offensive firepower around him to propel him to fantasy glory. Luckily, at least on paper, he has it in abundance. His returning weapons include Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne Jr., Evan Engram, and Zay Jones, all of whom outperformed their respective ADPs last season. In fact, Kirk became a fantasy WR1 for the first time in his career and Engram finished as a top-five tight end despite going undrafted in most leagues.
In 2023, Jacksonville will add Calvin Ridley and Tank Bigsby to the mix. Ridley, who hasn't appeared in an NFL contest since October 2021, was traded to the Jaguars amid his suspension last season. Although it may take a few games for him to shake any rust off, let's not forget that Ridley was a top-five fantasy wideout with the Falcons in 2020 with an aging Matt Ryan under center. Bigsby is an incoming rookie running back with promising pass-catching skills that should serve as a worthy compliment to Etienne.
I could've easily chosen Lawrence as a "Lock" for this article, but I love his chances to enter the elite tier of fantasy quarterbacks. There is absolutely a path for Lawrence to outscore the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Justin Fields, who are all being selected at least one round ahead of him.
Fantasy Football Bust: Travis Etienne Jr.
I've been a believer in Travis Etienne for a while now and vouched for him as a value in fantasy drafts last off-season when James Robinson was still on the roster. Etienne had a successful debut season, totaling over 1,400 yards and five touchdowns while finishing as the RB17 in PPR formats. He didn't truly take over the team's backfield until Week 7, so his ADP in the third round as the RB13 makes a lot of sense on the surface.
Unfortunately, the two areas in which Etienne struggled most last season are the two most valuable for fantasy purposes: on the goal line and in the passing game.
Travis Etienne:
-Really efficient running football in 2022
-Bottom-four PFF receiving grade
-One of NFL's worst goal line RBs in TD % inside 5Jaguars:
-Used day two draft capital on RB literally named Tank
-Re-signed JaMycal Hasty (out-snapped ETN vs KC)
-Added D'Ernest Johnson— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 6, 2023
Etienne handled 45 red zone touches last season, ninth-most amongst running backs, and was only able to hit paydirt four times. His 35 receptions on 45 targets weren't terrible by any means, but a bit disappointing considering the receiving skills he showcased in college.
If Etienne cedes some volume to the other backs on the roster, specifically in the red zone or on third downs, he could have difficulty returning value as a high-end RB2. Both Bigsby and JaMycal Hasty are capable pass-catchers and D'Ernest Johnson could sub in for the occasional goal-line carry.
To be completely transparent, I'm not totally out on Etienne, as he still offers plenty of upside at his draft cost. When considering some of the running backs available in the fourth and fifth rounds, however, Etienne becomes a more worrisome selection. Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon both project to be heavily involved all over the field this season and are routinely drafted a full round later than Etienne.
Fantasy Football Lock: Christian Kirk
I am definitely in on Calvin Ridley this season and am on board with drafting him as the WR1 in Jacksonville. Still, the fantasy community appears to be sleeping on Christian Kirk and the very real possibility that he leads the team in targets once again.
Kirk flashed potential while in Arizona, but 2022 marked the first time in his career that he was given a chance to emerge as a primary weapon on an offense. He took full advantage of this opportunity, earning 133 targets and scoring a career-high eight touchdowns. He was drafted as a fantasy WR4 but finished in the top 12 at the position. Currently, he's being drafted as the WR32.
Fantasy gamers seem to believe that Ridley is going to eat into a significant portion of Kirk's production, which is likely not the case at all. The two will operate in separate roles as Kirk is often utilized in the slot, while Ridley has spent the vast majority of his career lining up outside.
Below are the top 10 WRs in slot targets last season.
1. Christian Kirk - 115
2. Chris Godwin - 104
3. CeeDee Lamb - 92
4. Amon-Ra St. Brown - 79
T5. Tyler Boyd - 71
T5. Tyreek Hill - 71
7. Richie James - 66
T8. Parris Campbell - 64
T8. Keenan Allen - 64
10. Jerry Jeudy - 58— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) July 21, 2023
The presence of Ridley is much more threatening to Zay Jones, who played 236 snaps in the slot last season as opposed to Kirk's 494. Jones saw a respectable 121 targets of his own, and keep in mind that Marvin Jones Jr. and his 81 targets have left Jacksonville. If we expect Lawrence to attempt nearly 600 passes again this season, there is more than enough volume to go around for both Ridley and Kirk to yield a strong fantasy output.
If Ridley takes some time to return to form, Kirk could easily maintain his 23.2% team target share and pick up right where he left off. The assumption that Ridley is a full-go from Week 1, however, is already baked into Kirk's ADP in the seventh round, which he should easily outperform either way. We've seen his ceiling as a fantasy WR1, but his floor is much higher than many are giving him credit for. This makes Kirk a lock as one of the best wide receiver values in fantasy drafts this year.
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