4 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Cam Smith, Yusei Kikuchi, Jarren Duran, Zach Eflin

June 23, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 13 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 13 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll look at Cam Smith, Yusei Kikuchi, Jarren Duran, and Zach Eflin.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

This week will be an abbreviated edition, but the exercise of evaluating Fantasy Risers and Fallers couldn't be more important at this point in the season. Fantasy trade deadlines are likely approaching as we head toward the All-Star break, so they are running out of time to take advantage. With that in mind, let's dig in!

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 22, 2025.

Cam Smith, Houston Astros (OF)

.265/.336/.405 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 27 RBI, 3 SBs

Cam Smith caused quite a stir in spring, earning himself a spot on the Astros to start the season. The 22-year-old got off to a slow start in his big league debut, but he has slashed .293/.353/.421 from May 1 onward. He is currently rostered in just 35% of leagues; should that be higher?

Looking under the hood, Smith has done a better job impacting the ball starting in May. His 91.4 MPH average exit velocity and 53.5% hard-hit rate, combined with his 92nd percentile sprint speed, have led to an impressive .394 BABIP in that period. One would think that a profile like this would be snatched up in fantasy leagues.

However, several aspects of his game have capped his fantasy value. The first is a lack of stolen base attempts. Despite his extreme speed, Smith has never accumulated more than three stolen bases in any level of his career. The second is his launch angle. Smith has top-notch bat speed, but his 6.7-degree launch angle has not lent itself to hitting home runs.

He has done a better job of hitting the ball hard, but his barrel rate, sweet spot rate, and squared-up rate all leave something to be desired. He has hit 12 doubles since May 1 but only two HRs. This type of approach lends itself to fantasy value in points leagues, but not so much in roto leagues.

Smith has seemed to acclimate to the big league level and has started to provide for the Astros. However, from a fantasy perspective, he has only provided a batting average with a decent amount of runs scored and RBI. Overall, his current roster percentage still seems low, but he may not be able to help fantasy managers in certain types of leagues.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 22, 2025.

Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels

2-6, 3.01 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 22.6% Strikeout Rate, 89 2/3 IP

While he has shown flashes throughout his career, Yusei Kikuchi turned into a true fantasy contributor last season once he was traded to the Astros. He signed with the Angels this offseason and has carried that success with him, generating a 3.01 ERA in 16 starts and 89 2/3 IP. What changes has he made and are they sustainable?

His underlying metrics suggest his results have been an overachievement. His Statcast page is mostly blue, and his 91 MPH average exit velocity is in the 17th percentile of baseball. He has also put runners on for free with an 11.2% walk rate. However, those free passes haven't caught up to him, as indicated by his ERA.

His strikeout stuff has not carried over from last season. This is not that surprising, given that 2024 was a career-high for Kikuchi in strikeout rate. His current 22.6% strikeout rate is lower than his 24% career mark, but not by all that much.

Yusei Kikuchi's 8th and 9th Ks. pic.twitter.com/FKOmdnptOe

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 21, 2025

Kikuchi has not gotten the opportunity for many wins, given the team he plays for. He also has a 4.38 SIERA and 4.50 xERA that are over a run higher than his ERA. His poor batted-ball profile supports his expected stats. Kikuchi doesn't have a long track record of huge fantasy production, but his ERA is shiny enough to treat him as a sell-high candidate if possible.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 22, 2025.

Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox (OF)

.257/.309/.405 Slash Line, 5 HRs, 38 RBI, 15 SBs

Jarren Duran's 38 RBI and 15 stolen bases this season are fine numbers and would lead fantasy managers to expect that his overall performance would mirror that. Unfortunately, both his batting average and power production have taken a hit. Duran had a great 2024 season, but could he be worth selling in fantasy?

JARREN DURAN STEALS HOME 🤯 pic.twitter.com/mnWJPQ5HUR

— MLB (@MLB) April 26, 2025

Duran's stats under the hood suggest that he has been experiencing some bad luck. He has hit the ball harder than he ever has, with career-high exit velocities and hard-hit rates that are in the top quarter in baseball. He has also managed a career-high 11.2-degree launch angle.

Despite all of this, his batting average is much lower than in 2023 and 2024, and his .331 BABIP is lower than his career average of .343. He also has a career-high fly-ball rate but a career-low HR/FB rate of 5.7%.

Duran has not been a poor fantasy contributor by any means, but his performance has been relatively disappointing. The good thing is that his underlying numbers are all encouraging and contradict his peripherals, suggesting the opportunity for some serious regression in certain facets of his game.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 22, 2025.

Zach Eflin, Baltimore Orioles

6-4, 5.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 16.1% Strikeout Rate, 61 IP

Zach Eflin had an uninspiring but middling 4.08 ERA coming into Week 12 of the fantasy season. Things went completely south in his last two starts, bringing his season peripherals to a poor 5.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 16.1% strikeout rate in 11 starts and 61 IP. He has been a high-floor fantasy option for the past couple of seasons, but could that change in 2025?

Eflin faced tougher opponents in those starts against the Rays and the Yankees. However, that alone is not a good enough excuse for his performance. The main thing that stood out was home runs. Eflin allowed two HRs in his start against the Rays and three HRs in his start against the Yankees.

He did have to play those teams in their home parks, which have both been power-friendly. This is only partly to blame, as Eflin has allowed a career-high 2.21 HR/9 rate and 19.2% HR/FB rate this season. His 10.9-degree launch angle has been fine, but his 89.7 MPH average exit velocity allowed has been a career-high.

Eflin has not been a high-end strikeout option throughout his career and has allowed a lot of contact while relying on three different fastballs. That combination leaves little room for error and increases the chance of lowering his floor on a start-for-start basis. Unfortunately, Eflin will face the Rays again in his next scheduled start.

I would not have been starting Eflin this week in anything but easier matchups, and his last two starts have provided even more justification. His track record over the past few seasons makes him a difficult drop now, but he should be benched until he can turn things around.

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