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Michael's 2025 fantasy baseball draft sleepers for hitters. These undervalued hitters are mid-to-late round draft targets who should outperform their draft cost.
It’s a new year, football titles have been won, and pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training shortly. It’s time to get into fantasy baseball mode.
Some of us fanatics — or obsessive fantasy gamers if you aren’t feeling charitable — have been drafting for 2025 since November (ok, maybe even October, but keep that between us). We have noticed some trends and taken notes on average draft position (ADP) that can be exploited. Whether we call them overlooked or undervalued, one thing is sure: the market is providing a number of potential targets at value.
So here is a first run at five fantasy baseball sleeper hitters for 2025. ADP is taken from NFBC 12-team draft results over the last two weeks as of January.
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Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
Recent ADP: 178
Full disclosure: I have drafted Masyn Winn four times already (yes, I have issues). The profile and role are just too enticing: established leadoff hitter who has already shown solid five-category balance with upside for more.
Like many top prospects, Winn struggled during his first MLB cup of coffee late in 2023. The defense, however, has always been elite, and Winn was given a full run as the Cardinals' everyday shortstop last year.
As a prospect, Winn carried a 60-65 grade hit tool, and that came to the forefront right away: through May, he was batting .306 with seven steals, albeit with just two home runs. His 91% zone, 83% overall contact, and 7.8% swinging strike rates were among the best in MLB; he also ranked 89th percentile in Robert Orr’s contact over expected metric (Baseball Prospectus).
Top 20 MLB Hitters in Zone-contact% (Qualified) 2024 per FanGraphs
Winn soon claimed the leadoff spot for the Cardinals but suffered a back injury in early June. He didn’t miss any time, but his average dipped a bit, and he stopped running, attempting just six steals the rest of the season. His wheels remained elite with 87th percentile sprint speed and one of the fastest home-to-first times in MLB (4.22) per Statcast.
Recall that in 2022, Winn stole 43 bases across just 119 games in the high minors. Although manager Oli Marmol’s teams have generally not attempted steals at a high rate, Winn was on a 20-steal pace prior to the back injury.
While he ran less, Winn hit for more power post-injury: after just two dingers in his first 127 plate appearances, he knocked 13 over his final 458 PAs. He doesn’t boast big barrel rates (3.7%), but there are markers of real nascent power, including a 111.1-mph maximum exit velocity (72nd percentile) and above-average pulled fly ball rates (57th percentile).
It’s also noteworthy that Winn will turn just 23 a week prior to opening day. Cardinals brass have stated they are embracing a youth movement in 2025; Winn’s role is safe.
Put together the elite hit tool, the speed from the first half, the power he showed in the second, and natural growth from a top prospect, and could we see Winn post a 20/20 season with a .270-plus average and a mess of runs scored? The Steamer projections aren’t far off, pegging him for 18/16/.263/87.
As the 17th shortstop off the board, Winn provides both safe categorical balance and upside to exceed his projections well. We are happy to fill other needs, knowing he will be available later to fill the shortstop or middle infield slot on our fantasy rosters.
Colt Keith, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Recent ADP: 239
Keith’s profile is a bit unique for a second baseman: above-average hit tool with latent “huge power,” as FanGraphs stated in his prospect report; indeed, he hit 27 homers across 126 games in Double- and Triple-A in 2023. If that sounds more like a corner infielder, the Tigers apparently agree, as they announced they are moving him to first base for 2025. More eligibility!
The 23-year-old struggled initially last season as he adjusted to MLB pitching, failing to hit his first home run until May 24. But he literally hit his stride from mid-May until the All-Star break: .305 average (.866 OPS) with 9 HR and 3 SB in just 201 PAs.
Keith’s bat slowed down afterward with just four second-half homers, perhaps running out of steam in his first full MLB season—though he still hit .268 and struck out less than 21% of the time in the second half.
Keith’s quality of contact (5.6% barrel and 35% hard hit rates) won’t wow anyone, but he flashed a superior hit tool with nearly 90% zone contact (77th percentile), 21% line drives, and .269 xBA. If he can add a little loft to his swing—Keith’s pulled fly ball rate was almost twice as high at Triple-A—he could challenge 20-plus dingers. Like Winn, he is just entering his age-23 season in 2025.
While he was a dubious defender at second base, that will no longer pose a risk to his playing time. The Tigers recently signed Gleyber Torres to play second and announced Keith will start at first. So he will add first base and corner infield eligibility two weeks into the season and has little competition at first.
Although the Tigers platoon heavily, Keith started roughly half the time versus southpaws. And as another player featured here, Keith showed promising reverse splits, batting .305 with a 110 wRC+ against fellow lefties. There’s a good chance mix-and-match maestro AJ Hinch will trust him to play every day. He was already regularly batting Keith fourth and as high as second against righties late last season.
Clearly, Keith won’t challenge the Brice Turangs of the world in speed, but he could reasonably nab upwards of 10 swipes after going seven-for-eight on steal attempts in 2024.
With a Steamer projection of .263/15/5, superior contact ability, and inherent upside as a top prospect entering his sophomore campaign, Keith makes for an intriguing middle infield option or late second base pick, particularly if your team is flush with steals by this point in the draft and could use a batting average boost (e.g., you already have Elly De La Cruz or a Turang type).
The power potential and certainty Keith will gain first-base eligibility are icing on the proverbial cake.
Considering his age, opportunity, and the fact that “Colt Keith” just sounds like a slugger, as well as his excellent contact skills and power history in the minors, Keith could finish well above his ADP as the 17th second baseman in recent drafts.
TJ Friedl, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Recent ADP: 264
This is one where the ADP simply does not compute, with Friedl going as the 61st outfielder in recent drafts. He is being taken in a range rife with platoon options (Jesus Sanchez, Garrett Mitchell, Wilyer Abreu), some of whom we like, but have a much greater risk of playing time restrictions and, hence, lower run and RBI production.
Recall in 2023, Friedl finished as the No. 22 outfielder with 18 homers and 27 stolen bases despite missing 24 games.
Multiple injuries marred Friedl’s 2024: a wrist in March, a thumb in May, and a hamstring in June. He still produced at a 23/15 pace. None of those injuries were major or look to be concerns in 2025.
Now, you may object that, yes, Friedl has been productive, but his Statcast page is bluer than Muddy Waters. But Friedl is one of MLB’s most proficient pull-power hitters.
In 2024, he pulled 19% of his batted balls in the air, an elite level—only Isaac Paredes did so more often among everyday players—capitalizing on his home park being the great American bandbox. After returning from the hammy injury, Friedl finished with nine dingers over his last 230 PAs. That’s roughly a 25-homer pace.
Friedl makes contact at an elite rate (career 91% zone, 83% overall). He has no splits—in fact, he’s been better against lefties with a somewhat ridiculous 134 career wRC+ versus southpaws.
Friedl’s one of the Reds’ best on-base threats and currently projects to hit leadoff, at minimum, against righties. He is also an effective, smart baserunner who has averaged 21.6 steals per 600 PAs in his career with a nearly 83% success rate.
Finally, Friedl is exactly the kind of gritty, plucky player new Reds manager Tito Francona will love. You will, too, know that if he comes close to his Steamer projections (.249/19/17)—which he could easily beat with good health—you’ve taken a fringe top-100 hitter going five or six rounds later.
Jonathan Aranda, 1B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Recent ADP: 350
A former top 100 prospect, Jonathan Aranda’s FanGraphs page reveals a dominant hitter over his minor league career. His timely ascent to the Rays lineup was interrupted by injury and ineffectiveness (an issue not helped by the injuries) when he did get brief MLB time across 2022 and 2023.
Last season also began with an injury, but once healthy, Aranda got his chance late in the season and flashed impressive skills, especially in the power department. His 16.5% barrel rate would have ranked ninth among qualified hitters, nearly tied with Brent Rooker and ahead of Oneil Cruz and Kyle Schwarber.
Aranda’s 91.9 MPH average exit velocity would’ve ranked 89th percentile, and he pulled balls in the air at a 79th percentile clip. Aranda also scored in the 96th percentile for damage rate, a statistic created by Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus that combines barrels, exit velocities, and spray angle.
Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of Aranda’s growth is that he did not whiff against secondary pitches (87th percentile). He crushed both fastballs and breakers (.528 and .556 xSLG, respectively). For Aranda, the key was growth in contact rate while also hitting the ball hard. As he made more contact, his results improved:
Aranda is a lefty and, so far in his MLB career, has not hit southpaws well at all (42 wRC+). Knowing the Rays, they won’t give him many chances to improve against same-handed pitching, either. However, team brass has spoken about wanting to get his bat in the lineup versus righties at DH and perhaps alternating at first base with Yandy Diaz, who has also been the subject of trade rumors this offseason.
Aranda’s Steamer projections are calling for 12 home runs and a credible .248 batting average in 364 plate appearances—a 20-homer pace. Aranda could well exceed that production if he maintains the damage growth he showed last year, a goal that should be aided by the Rays moving into a replica of Yankee Stadium right down to its inviting short porch in right field.
There aren’t many 16% barrel rate guys going in the 29th round or later of 12-team leagues. You can take Aranda as one of your last bench pieces and may just have an elite power hitter for basically free.
Jose Tena, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals
Recent ADP: 393
Going in the 33rd round, Tena is a target for the deep leaguers and those participating in draft-and-hold contests. At this point in drafts, most of the players are backups, utility types, or deeper prospects yet to debut.
Tena is a platoon bat, to be sure—he posted just a 34 wRC+ against lefties last year—but he appears to have a set role as the Nationals strong side third baseman, at least to start the season. Acquired near the trade deadline, Tena was called up last August and hit .274 with three homers and six steals in 164 plate appearances. That’s an 11-homer, 22-steal pace.
Tena didn’t show much over-the-fence pop in MLB, with just a .087 ISO. But there may be room for power growth as he hits the ball quite hard (91 MPH EV and 49% hard hit) and smacked 18 homers across 100 Triple-A games last year. In the majors, he was limited by a low launch angle that led to a 49% ground ball rate. We’ve seen young players improve their swing leverage with more experience.
Tena paired the plus hard hit rates with plus contact: 89% zone and 79% overall. Meanwhile, he is fairly quick (71st percentile sprint speed) and was a prolific if somewhat inefficient base stealer across last season in Triple-A and the majors (21 steals against nine times caught).
Add it all up, and you get a good contact hitter with some potential power growth and quick enough wheels to chip in double-digit stolen bases. Tena’s Steamer projection of .252/10/9 in just 94 games seems reasonable and may not fully account for the Nationals being the most aggressive team in stolen base attempt rate last year.
Tena should start the season manning the hot corner for Washington, although his defensive metrics were subpar and the Nats have Brady House lurking in the minors. Hence, there is some risk they hand the reins to their top prospect at some point. But House has played just 54 games at Triple-A, and he is not on the 40-man roster.
So drafting Tena as a depth piece in the 33rd round that could produce at a 15/15 pace? Count us in.
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