Overvalued Catchers - Potential Fantasy Baseball Busts and Expensive ADPs

Elliott B identifies some fantasy baseball catcher busts and avoids for the 2025 draft season. Bust candidates: Adley Rutschman, Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz, more.

There's nothing worse than drafting a bust, especially behind the plate. There's often a dearth of talent at catcher on waivers throughout the season, so it's extra important to nail the position on draft day.

In this article, I've identified five catchers who I think are being overdrafted and could bust for the 2025 fantasy baseball season based on their ADP and draft day cost. That doesn't mean these are terrible players or they can't produce, instead, I don't think they'll provide enough value relative to their price tag.

ADP is taken from NFBC and is accurate as of March 17, 2025. For a deeper dive into ADP trends and strategies, check out our Fantasy Baseball ADP Guide to gain an edge on draft day.

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Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles

NFBC ADP: 61

Rustchman was baseball's wunderkind catcher when he debuted in 2022, but things haven't all been rosy for him in the major leagues. Anyone who had Rutschman last season knows that he had an atrocious second half in 2024.

Last season, Rutschman hit .207 with a .585 OPS and a .096 ISO in the second half. That is backup-catcher production. There are other red flags in Rutschman's game that suggest a turnaround might not be easy.

Adley Rutschman, since July, has seen his average bat speed reduce each month. With it, Rutschman hit .194 with a .564 OPS between July 2 and the regular season's end.

Not a huge dip (high of 67.7 mph vs 65.9 mph) but a dip nonetheless.

Graph via Statcast pic.twitter.com/VG10gnhYBH

— Andy Kostka (@afkostka) October 2, 2024

Rutschman couldn't handle right-handed pitching last season. Against righties, Rutschman hit .219 with a .631 OPS and .123 ISO. Sure, he mashed lefties even last season, but he needs to hit righties better if he wants to remain an elite catcher at the plate.

Rutschman also has some underwhelming Statcast numbers behind his swing. His average exit velocity is just 88.2 mph, and his barrel rate is just 6.1 percent, ranking him 20th among qualified catchers. And he's going as the second catcher off the board.

He also cannot hit breaking balls and has never been able to handle them. Last season he hit .254 against breakers, which is good for him, but he had a .206 xBA and .248 xwOBA against breaking balls as well. Rutschman has hit under .220 against breaking balls every season he's been in the majors, and his whiff rate against breaking balls rose nearly five percent from 2023 to 2024.

Rutschman is certainly a talented player and a reliable backstop to boot. But I'm not sure he's worth his current draft cost. As of writing this, he's the 57th overall player and third catcher off the board in NFBC leagues, and he's the second-ranked catcher by our RotoBaller experts.

He's still young and has flashed upside in the past, but at cost, I'd probably pivot from a catcher and take a more reliable player at another position. Generally, I tend to avoid drafting catchers early as their production doesn't match their draft slot compared to other positions and it's hard to make up that value later in the draft.

In NFBC leagues you could grab Teoscar Hernandez or Marcell Ozuna for a similar price. No, they aren't catchers, but they have much more reliable production.

Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

NFBC ADP: 94

Smith had a disappointing 2024 campaign for the Dodgers, posting a career-worst .248/.327/.433 triple slash along with 20 home runs and 75 RBI. It was not a terrible offensive season for a catcher, but it was a step back for Smith. Just a few years ago, Smith looked like one of the best offensive catchers in the game.

He posted a monster 160 wRC+ during the COVID-shortened 2020 season, but 2024 was a definite step backward.

Perhaps most alarming is the rise in strikeout rate. Smith's strikeout rate went up by over three percentage points from 2023 to 2024, and he whiffed 19.3 percent of the time last year. He still makes good contact for this era of baseball, but seeing a player's strikeout rate rise as they enter their age-30 season is cause for concern.

Not only did Smith's strikeout rate climb, but his plate discipline worsened as well. His walk rate was reduced by two points from 2023 to 2024, and his chase rate rose by 2.6 points as well. He also had a rise in swinging-strike rate and a dip in contact rate.

These aren't alarm bells blaring, but they are small warning signals that Smith's game could be entering a decline. 2024 was a down year for Smith, but he only just turned 30, so perhaps a turnaround is possible. Just don't expect it, bank on it, or draft planning for it. 2024 was not bad luck for Smith, it was his bat subtly slowing down.

He's currently going as the No. 94 player and seventh overall catcher off the board in NFBC leagues. I'd rather move up a tier and grab someone like Cal Raleigh or Willson Contreras, or wait and take a shot on a young catcher.

J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

NFBC ADP: 130

A fantasy mainstay over the last decade, Realmuto finally started to show some age last season. His 14 home runs and .163 ISO were both the lowest since 2016 (not counting the COVID-19 2020 season).

One big change in Realmuto's swing was a drastic reduction in average launch angle in 2024. His career average launch angle is 12.1 degrees, and his launch angle in 2023 was 16.7 degrees, but in 2024, he tweaked his swing, and his average launch angle was lowered to 9.4 degrees.

As a result, Realmuto had his highest line-drive rate since 2019. His average did rise 14 points from 2023 to 2024, but it seems to have cost him some power. Realmuto's flyball rate dropped over nine percent from 2023 to 2024, and I think the days of him hitting 20 or more home runs are gone.

Home runs aren't the only area where Realmuto's seen his stats become depressed. He's also stopped stealing bases. Realmuto was one of the rare catchers with some baserunning speed and had been chipping in double-digit steals over the past few seasons leading up to 2024.

That ended last season, as Realmuto stole a whopping two bases on four attempts after swiping 16 bags the year prior. He's still in the 79th percentile in sprint speed, so perhaps Realmuto could run if the manager lets him, but it's hard to expect more than five-to-seven steals from him in 2025.

He was recovering from knee surgery last year, so maybe if healthy he could run more, but he's also about to turn 34 and didn't run at all last season.

Realmuto is not exactly expensive on draft day; he's the 127th player and 10th catcher off the board in NFBC leagues, and he's the 12th-ranked catcher by RotoBaller experts. Still, everything feels like it's on a downward trend with Realmuto, and I'd rather take a shot on a younger, up-and-coming catcher if I'm drafting one in this range.

I would rather shoot for the upside of a Logan O'Hoppe than stick with a declining veteran.

Keibert Ruiz, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 204

It's hard to call anyone going after pick 200 a bust, but Ruiz just isn't someone that I'd target, even at that value. There's just not a lot to like in this batter profile. Ruiz has somehow gotten worse at the plate in every major league season, and last year was his nadir.

Ruiz had a putrid .229/.260/.359 triple slash with a 71 wRC+ and .268 wOBA last season. His 71 wRC+ was the lowest mark among catchers last season (min. 400 PA).

Always with atrocious plate discipline, Ruiz somehow took a step backward last season. He walked an alarmingly low 3.3 percent of the time last season. You'd think a guy with an 85.4 mph average exit velocity might learn to swing less often.

Heck, Ruiz's Statcast page is bluer than a Smurfs family reunion. He's among the league's worst in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, bat speed…you get the idea. Just about the only thing Ruiz does well is put the ball in play often; he only had an 11.1 percent strikeout rate last season.

He will probably improve on his .232 BABIP from last year, but with a career .252 BABIP, I don't expect him to regress to the league average in that category.

One positive for Ruiz is that he should have regular playing time. Poor as he played last year, the Nationals just don't have anyone in their organization to threaten him for playing time.

With the Nats not expected to contend this season, they may be just fine with Ruiz as their stopgap backstop. Don't be like the Nats, and don't settle for Ruiz on draft day, even at pick 200. Why draft Ruiz when you could draft Ivan Herrera a round later, or grab Drake Baldwin in the last few rounds?

There is zero fantasy appeal in this profile.

Tyler Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds

NFBC ADP: 150

Update: Stephenson has a low-grade left oblique strain so his ADP will drop, but this further threatens his swing this year.

Stephenson had the best power year of his career last season, swatting 19 home runs in 515 PAs along with a .186 ISO and 66 RBI. It was the best offensive season in Stephenson's career, and he's set to hit cleanup in Cincinnati's order.

So what's not to like? There are several indicators that Stephenson overperformed last year and will have difficulty replicating his home run total from 2024.

Stephenson may've threatened 20 home runs last season, but it's unlikely that he will reach that total or even repeat his 19. Stephenson did slightly increase his hard-hit rate, launch angle, and barrel rate, but not drastically enough that we should accredit his successes to these changes.

He only increased his average exit velocity by 0.8 mph and his hard-hit rate by 0.7 percentage points. Those are not the numbers of a power breakout, and Statcast suggests that Stephenson was rather lucky with his home run total in 2024.

Stephenson has a large 5.4 HR-xHR gap, meaning that Statcast suggests that he overperformed by over five home runs last season. That ranks him seventh in the majors in HR-xHR (min one HR) last season.

He was one of MLB's biggest power overperformers last year, and Stephenson could come back to earth in 2025. He does play home games in Great American Small Park which should help him overachieve to a degree. Stephenson really relied on the home ballpark last season, posting an .841 OPS and .223 ISO at home, but a .720 OPS and .147 ISO on the road.

His career ISO at home is about 50 points higher than his career ISO on the road, so perhaps we could expect a repeat, but it would require everything to break right for Stephenson again. I'd rather draft a catcher a little earlier, or take a young guy with upside for that value.

Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson has a low grade oblique strain and will open on IL.

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubMLB) March 14, 2025

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