RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! The season has come and gone and we are left with the final matches of the season. For the most part, all of the clubs’ fates are sealed, however, some remain in the balance. Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brentford are all vying for the final spot in the Europa League next season, while Everton, Leicester and Leeds are all vying for safety to see another season in the Premier League. This will ultimately influence managers’ decisions when building lineups this weekend as these clubs will up their levels with their futures on the line.
The top three favorites this weekend are: Arsenal -290 vs Wolverhampton +650, Liverpool -260 at Southampton +550 and Everton -210 vs AFC Bournemouth +500. I will guide you through this ten-match slate starting at 11:30 P.M. EST.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 38
Goalies
Aaron Ramsdale - DK $5.8K || FD $14
Opponent - Wolverhampton
Despite the slate being the largest of the season as typical, goalkeeper ownership should be relatively laid out and simple with many focusing on getting wins instead of risking a loss. Ramsdale suits the needs in multiple areas. Not only is Arsenal one of the biggest favorites, but they are also playing at home and against the worst-scoring offense in the league – Wolverhampton last in Goals For Per 90 with 0.837 –. If Ramsdale turns out to be too much salary, others like Martin Dubravka of Newcastle could be an option playing against a Chelsea club who just lost 4-1 three days ago to Manchester United.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Alisson (DK $5.8K || FD $14), Dubravka (DK $4.9K || FD $11)
Forwards
Odsonne Edouard - DK $5.9K || FD $16
Opponent - Nottingham Forest
The striker position is where many will take the most risk as it is a risky position already, relying on goals to make value and with a slate this large, you need to be different in order to ship a GPP. Edouard could very well break the slate this Sunday too thanks to his tremendous matchup against the league’s worst away club, Nottingham Forest. In the visitor’s last five away fixtures in domestic play, they have been outscored 6 to 11 and they are the fourth-worst in Shots Against Per 90 – 14.64 –, the second-worst in Crosses Against Per 90 – 21.54 – and the third-worst in both Created Chances Against Per 90 – 11.48 – and Goals Against Per 90 – 1.81 – over the season. Edouard is not the most ideal striker when choosing through all of the options, however, he has some of the top playmakers in the league on his club – Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise –. With many other matchups on the slate that require big spending, this is the perfect salary-saver with some of the best upside. In his last five matches in domestic play – 1 start –, he has 1 goal, 2 shots, 1 created chance and 1 tackle.
Cody Gakpo - DK $7.1K || FD $20
Opponent - Southampton
Gakpo is perhaps the biggest disappointment in Transfered-In players this season with just 6 goals and 2 assists through 20 appearances – 17 starts – in domestic play this season. The highly-sought after winger dominated the Eredivisie with PSV Eindhoven before drawing attention from many top-flight clubs and ultimately joining Liverpool. His first season in the Premier League has been much different than many thought though. Despite the failure to live up to his potential, he has one of the best matchups on the slate and he is very affordable. Southampton in their last five home fixtures are being outscored 4 to 12 and over the season in all fixtures, they are the fourth-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.72 –. Remarkably, they are performing close to the middle of the table in all other meaningful metrics and struggle due to their poor goalkeeping. With both clubs’ fates sealed, this should play out as a typical match in the season and Liverpool is expected to dominate. In Gakpo’s last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 assist, 3 shots, 6 created chances, 3 crosses, 9 tackles and 1 clearance.
Demarai Gray - DK $7.8K || FD $14
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
This Sunday is do-or-die for a few clubs and one of them is Everton. The Toffees are playing at home, giving them a slight advantage over the traveling Bournemouth Cherries too. However, neither club is in stellar form, with Everton being outscored 4 to 11 in their last five home fixtures, while Bournemouth has been outscored 5 to 7 in their previous five away fixtures. Luckily for Everton, Bournemouth is the worst club in Shots Against Per 90 – 15.37 –, Crosses Against Per 90 – 20.08 – and Created Chances Against Per 90 – 11.70 –. They are also the second-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.81 –. With teammate Dominic Calvert-Lewin once again injured, it is up to Gray to lead the line in hopes of remaining in the top flight for another season. In Gray’s last five fixtures in domestic play – 3 starts –, he has 7 shots, 3 created chances, 15 crosses, 4 corners, 10 tackles and 2 interceptions.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Haaland (DK $10.2K || FD $25), Rashford (DK $8.7K || FD $21)
Midfielders
Dwight McNeil - DK 9.7K || FD $17
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
Once again we visit the Toffees and Cherries matchup, this time with midfielder Dwight McNeil. At one point, the golden boy of Burnley, McNeil has helped transform the transition and the overall attack for Everton, despite their struggles to win matches. McNeil shared set-pieces with teammate Demarai Gray – mentioned above – for a bit, however, McNeil has taken full share since, making him a very valuable play. As mentioned, Bournemouth sports the worst overall defense in the league and McNeil will be at the center of any offense Everton musters up to hold onto another season in the Premier League. In his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 3 goals, 1 assist, 13 shots, 11 created chances, 35 crosses, 15 corners, 8 tackles and 10 interceptions.
Michael Olise - DK $9K || FD $17
Opponent - Nottingham Forest
As hard as it is to stay away from mentioning multiple players from the same club, Crystal Palace will be a highly sought-after stack this weekend and no better way to add to it, than set-piece taker Michael Olise. Olise is one of two talismans for the Eagles, however, he has a larger role to play than teammate Eberechi Eze. In Olise’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 2 assists, 10 shots, 10 created chances, 54 crosses, 28 corners, 4 tackles and 5 interceptions. As mentioned, Nottingham sports one of the worst overall defenses in the league and furthermore, the worst away defense in the league. All signs point to Crystal Palace ending the season with a bang this weekend.
James Maddison - DK $9.1K || FD $20
Opponent - West Ham United
Another team vying for a place in the Premier League next season is Leicester City. After trading away all of their star talents, unfortunately, this is not a bit surprising for most. Leicester has struggled all season, despite having players like Harvey Barnes and featured player James Maddison. Maddison has done the best he could, even coming off a gruesome injury that saw him ultimately miss the World Cup and a handful of matches during the Premier League season following the tournament. As the main set-piece taker he has a large influence on the game and with the expected 4-2-3-1 formation for this weekend, Maddison may have even more freedom than normal. In his last five fixtures in domestic play – 4 starts –, he has 1 goal, 3 assists, 14 shots, 13 created chances, 25 crosses, 11 corners, 11 tackles and 1 interception. Could this be his final game playing for the Foxes or will they return in dramatic fashion next season?
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Fernandes (DK $9.5K || FD $23), Almiron (DK $6.1K || FD $16)
Defense
Pedro Porro - DK $6.4K || FD $14
Opponent - Leeds United
There have been multiple reports of multiple formations for the final match of the 22-23 season, however, Porro cannot be passed on if the Spurs do run a 4-2-3-1. Per sofascore.com, they have a projected lineup with Porro settling in as the RW in a 4-2-3-1 formation giving him the ultimate ceiling going against one of the worst defenses in the league. Porro is not being highlighted for his defensive capabilities by any means, but more so for his offensive skills. In his last five appearances in domestic play – 4 starts –, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 10 shots, 9 created chances, 37 crosses, 18 corners, 9 tackles, 7 interceptions and 8 clearances. Leeds United is an average-at-best club in meaningful metrics, except Big Chances Created Against Per 90 and Goals Against Per 90 – 2.32 and 1.94 respectively – where they are the worst in both. With multiple defenders already scoring on Leeds this season, it would only be fitting for one of the most offensive fullbacks in the league to do so too.
Trent Alexander-Arnold - DK $7.1K || FD $15
Opponent - Southampton
Alexander-Arnold or TAA is going to be the safest play at defense this weekend when assessing both a floor and a ceiling. Not only has his defending stepped up in recent weeks, but he is going against one of the worst overall clubs in the league. Southampton is the second-worst club in Goals For Per 90 – 0.86 – despite having a talisman by the name of James Ward-Prowse in the lineup. The hosts are at the middle of the pack in both Crosses Against Per 90 and Created Chances Against Per 90 – 17.81 and 9.97 respectively – as well. In TAA’s last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 1 assist, 9 shots, 7 created chances, 30 crosses, 17 corners, 4 tackles, 4 interceptions and 6 clearances. This is brewing up a recipe for success and you won’t find a better overall spot to play at defense this weekend.
Michael Keane - DK $3.1K || FD $12
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
At the time of writing all of the projected fullbacks on the slate are quite expensive, leaving you one of them or none depending on where you allocate your salary for the final matches of the season. This leaves us with finding a center back and Keane is the perfect choice. Known for his physical and demanding presence on the backline, Keane has struggled this season. However, his club’s life is on the line and he will ultimately have a large play as to which league Everton plays in next season following this weekend’s slate of matches. Through his last five fixtures in domestic play, he has 1 assist, 6 shots, 2 created chances, 4 crosses, 4 tackles, 11 interceptions and 16 clearances. His clearances alone are worth mentioning and he becomes a very valuable defenseman on FanDuel where they are much more defensively oriented. Playing in an expected 3-5-2, Keane and the rest of the backline will be in for a heavy workload against a talented Bournemouth side.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Trippier (DK $7.5K || FD $16), Lewis (DK $3.2K || FD $10)
Corner Takers:
Arsenal: Saka/Odegaard
Wolverhampton: Neto/Neves
Aston Villa: Luiz
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March
Brentford: Mbeumo/Jensen
Manchester City: de Bruyne
Chelsea: Hall/Havertz/Mudryk
Newcastle United: Trippier
Crystal Palace: Olise/Eze
Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White
Everton: McNeil/Gray
AFC Bournemouth: Christie
Leeds United: Harrison
Tottenham: Perisic/Son
Leicester City: Maddison
West Ham United: Bowen/Rice
Manchester United: Fernandes/Eriksen
Fulham: Willian
Southampton: Ward-Prowse
Liverpool: Alexander-Arnold/Robertson
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
