RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! The Winter Transfer Window has come and gone and some clubs have made massive changes, while others are looking at the Summer to make moves. The Starting XI will be fluid for a few gameweeks as clubs get used to their new players and it is imperative that you watch closely for last-minute scratches prior to kick off
There are two large favorites this weekend, Manchester City -340 at Nottingham Forest and Chelsea -260 versus Southampton. I will guide you through this six-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 24
Goalies
Kepa Arrizabalaga- DK $5.8K || FD $14
Opponent - Southampton
Kepa seems to have finally found form after starting off and on when teammate Edouard Mendy was healthy. With two ‘elite’ options on the slate at goalie this weekend, Kepa’s name will pop first due to the nature of Chelsea playing at home and Southampton’s awful offense. Through 22 fixtures, Southampton is averaging 11.63 Shots Per 90, 8.68 Created Chances Per 90 and 0.81 Goals Per 90, all three metrics in the bottom half of the league and mostly thanks to creative playmaker James Ward-Prowse, otherwise they would be even worse. Furthermore, in the top-flight Southampton have scored just 8 goals while playing away and Chelsea have only conceded 7 goals while playing at home. Kepa may not have a strong floor this weekend, but he will be expected to take all three points here.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Ederson (DK $5.9K || FD $14), Meslier (DK $4.6K || FD $10)
Forwards
Erling Haaland-DK $9.4K || FD $24
Opponent - Nottingham Forest
The giants of the Premier League are back and in a favorable spot despite playing away from the Etihad. Although Haaland and City have looked out of sorts lately, he is still by far the best option at forward and he will carry the biggest ceiling and most ownership. Over the season, Nottingham Forest is the fifth-worst club in both Shots Against Per 90 – 14.04 – and Created Chances Per 90 – 11 – and they are the second-worst club in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.68 –. In Haaland’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 5 goals, 1 assist, 11 shots, 2 created chances, 1 tackle and 3 clearances. Haaland has only scored 2 or more goals three times this season in the top flight. Can he make that four against Nottingham?
Dwight McNeil- DK $6.8K || FD $13
Opponent - Leeds United
With the current expected starting XI, McNeil should take the majority of set-pieces in this home matchup against Leeds United. This makes him a very attractive second striker thanks to the floor he will have. Through his last five fixtures in domestic play – 4 starts –, he has 2 assists, 3 shots, 6 created chances, 35 crosses, 8 corners, 6 tackles and 3 clearances. His individual shot creation is less than ideal with 3 shots to his name and only 6 created chances, however, where he does thrive is crossing from the flank. Leeds are in the middle of the table in every meaningful statistic, however, if Everton are going to see any sort of success this weekend, McNeil will be at the very center of it.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Felix (DK $9.8K || FD $21), Cunha (DK $5.1K || FD $15)
Midfielders
Kevin De Bruyne- DK $9.3K || FD $22
Opponent - Nottingham Forest
We have yet another ‘lock’ of the slate with midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne. De Bruyne is the heartbeat of Manchester City and the direct supplier of teammate Erling Haaland. If that is not enough to sell you already, then I don’t know what is. In his last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 goal, 3 assists, 3 shots, 12 created chances, 35 crosses, 9 corners, 1 tackle and 2 clearances. As mentioned above, City has dropped a bit in form which in turn has had a direct correlation with De Bruyne’s peripherals. However, this is the perfect game to have a bounce back performance against one of the worst defenses in the league – see above for Nottingham Forest defense breakdown –.
Pablo Sarabia- DK $5.6K || FD $13
Opponent - AFC Bournemouth
Sarabia is in a similar spot to Dwight McNeil – highlighted above –. He is sharing set-pieces and he is in a good spot to produce, but will he? Sarabia joined Wolverhampton during the Winter Transfer Window from Paris Saint-Germain of Ligue One. In the three appearances in domestic play since his arrival, he has 5 shots, 1 created chance, 6 crosses, 7 corners and 2 tackles. The hardest part to predict is what role Sarabia will play, as it fully depends on the formation that bench boss Julen Lopetegui roles out. Currently, he is slated to play a wide role which would benefit him in open-play value. Nevertheless, he is playing at home against Bournemouth who is the worst defense in the top flight. In 22 matches, Bournemouth is the worst club in Shots Against Per 90 – 16.18 –, Crosses Against Per 90 – 25.18 – and Goals Against Per 90 – 1.9 – and they are the third-worst in Chances Created Against Per 90 – 11.81 –.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pereira (DK $7.1K || FD $14), Jensen (DK $6.1K || FD $12)
Defense
Reece James- DK $6.1K || FD $14
Opponent - Southampton
After much deliberation – mostly due to injury –, James is finally back in the starting XI for a Chelsea club that desperately needed him. In his three appearances in domestic play since his return, he has 3 shots, 2 created chances, 11 crosses, 4 tackles, 2 interceptions and 5 clearances. James is one of the most complete fullbacks in the entire league, especially after the departure of Joao Cancelo from Manchester City and he has instantly provided a massive boost to Chelsea’s flank attacks. With James back, it will also allow new teammate Noni Madueke to push more inside, unlocking his 1v1 potential. Southampton does not have a bad defense, however, they continue to struggle holding the flanks and it will provide James plenty of opportunities to threaten the backline this weekend.
Rico Lewis- DK $3.6K || FD $12
Opponent - Nottingham Forest
We have our third and final ‘lock’ of the slate. Rico Lewis is projected to start at right fullback against Nottingham Forest and it provides us a floor and a perfect ‘punt’ play to afford the higher-salaried big guns on the slate, i.e. Haaland and De Bruyne. Despite Nottingham Forest playing at home, they will still struggle to score goals, especially with Manchester City traveling in high spirits after defeating Arsenal 3-1. This only boosts Lewis’s value further with a potential clean sheet on the cards. Over Lewis’s last five games in domestic play – 4 starts –, he has 1 shot, 4 created chances, 4 crosses, 8 tackles, 1 interception and 3 clearances.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Semedo (DK $4.2K || FD $10), Bednarek (DK $3.2K || FD $9)
Corner Takers:
Brentford: Jensen
Crystal Palace: Olise/Eze
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March
Fulham: Pereira
Chelsea: Felix/James
Everton: McNeil/Gray/Iwobi
Leeds United: Harrison
Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White
Manchester City: De Bruyne
Wolverhampton: Sarabia/Neves
AFC Bournemouth: Tavernier/Traore
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
