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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
No time of year offers up so many games in so little time as around the turn of the year. Matchweek 19 begins less than 24 hours after Matchweek 18 ends so while we still have you covered with predictions and plays for every game, it's an abbreviated write-up. If anything significant happens that impacts one of this week's games before it kicks off, we'll update things so tread carefully over the coming days.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 77-89
- Total picks: 68-91-9
- Parlays: 8-22
- ROI: 96.95% (-4.44 units)
Monday, January 02nd, 2023
Liverpool (-174) at Brentford (+478) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 2 Liverpool
Liverpool needed two own goals to get a win against Leicester while Brentford made to back-to-back games scoring twice since the league's resumption, beating West Ham United 2-0. Both teams are adept at scoring but neither keep clean sheets very often.
Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+103) 0.5 units
Liverpool's current four-game winning streak has yet to see them keep a clean sheet while Brentford had gone five games without a clean sheet prior to their 2-0 win on Saturday.
Player to watch: Ivan Toney
Four goals in his last three games, he's playing like a man with a chip on his shoulder after being left out of England's World Cup squad.
Tuesday, January 03rd, 2023
Newcastle United (+348) at Arsenal (-122) 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 1 - 1 Newcastle United
Arsenal moved seven points clear at the top of the table after their 4-2 win at Brighton, which followed Newcastle dropping points at home to Leeds, drawing 0-0 to end their seven-game winning streak.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+107) 0.5 units
Arsenal has been finding the net with regularity since the restart but Newcastle has the best defensive record in the league and now kept three consecutive clean sheets in the league.
Player to watch: Martin Odegaard
The Arsenal captain has been in irresistible form with a goal and three assists in his last two games. He could hold the key to unlocking the league's stingiest defense.
Brighton (+115) at Everton (+267) 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 2 Brighton
Everton nicked a point at Manchester City to end their losing streak but it's still five EPL games without a win now. Brighton's 4-2 loss against Arsenal was their sixth straight EPL in which both teams have scored and in which there have been at least three goals.
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (+103) 1 unit
I'm still not convinced by Everton and they needed plenty of luck and a wonder goal to get their point at Manchester City. Brighton continues to score and concede goals freely and I can see a scenario where they win 3-0 so I'll stick to the total goals market rather than both teams scoring.
Player to watch: Solly March
In Brighton's last two games, March has one goal and two assists while tallying six shot-creating actions. He'll want to continue that form in 2023.
Fulham (+219) at Leicester City (+126) 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 1 Fulham
Leicester will feel aggrieved not to have taken at least a point at Liverpool, losing due to two own goals. Fulham made it back-to-back wins following the restart but have alternated wins and losses over their last six away games and after winning their last one, another loss could well be on the cards here.
Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Both teams to score and a goal in both halves (-110) 1.5 units
Leicester's clean sheet streak looked like an anomaly and five goals conceded in the last two games is about more of what to expect from them. Fulham has scored in their last seven away games but their only clean sheet in that run came against a Crystal Palace team reduced to nine men early in the second half.
Player to watch: Harvey Barnes
With James Maddison sidelined, Barnes will be called upon to be Leicester's spark. He's their second-highest scorer with six goals and with a lack of goals from their strikers, he will have to shoulder part of the goal-scoring responsibility.
Bournemouth (+966) at Manchester United (-336) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Manchester United 2 - 0 Bournemouth
Manchester United moved into fourth following their win at Wolves while Bournemouth's consecutive 2-0 defeats since the World Cup have left them looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone again.
Betting pick: To win to nil - Manchester United (+122) 0.5 units
Manchester United has won both games since the restart without conceding and has now kept five consecutive EPL clean sheets at home. Bournemouth has lost both games 2-0 since the restart and has lost their last three away games, failing to score in two of them.
Player to watch: Marcus Rashford
Rashford has been involved in all three of United's goals since the restart, scoring twice and assisting once. He was benched for disciplinary reasons at Wolves but came on the get the winner and will be in line to start again.
Wednesday, January 04th, 2023
Nottingham Forest (+294) at Southampton (+105) 2:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Southampton is looking for their first point since Nathan Jones took over as manager and come into 2023 in the midst of a five-game losing streak. Forest continued to be a problem for sides at home when they drew with Chelsea on Sunday but has only picked up two points from their eight away games.
Betting pick: Both teams to score - No (+109) 0.5 units
Forest has one goal in their eight away games and while I can certainly see them doubling that tally at Southampton, this is set to be a very nervy game and one in which the first goal may prove to be the winner.
Player to watch: James Ward-Prowse
Ward-Prowse has scored in both games since the restart, with a trademark free-kick against Fulham in their 2-1 loss last time out. His set-piece delivery and ability to score long-range efforts could be the difference in a tight game.
West Ham United (+171) at Leeds United (+167) 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 West Ham United
David Moyes is under increasing pressure following back-to-back defeats since the restart while Leeds' Jesse Marsch managed to ease some of the pressure on his job with their goalless draw at Newcastle. Neither side is in good form and both will be desperate for a win.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+259) 0.5 units
This game looks too close to call so I'm sitting on the fence a bit, although if I had to pick a winner, I find it hard to see West Ham winning a game right now.
Player to watch: Jack Harrison
With Leeds struggling for goals, someone needs to step up and who better than the man who scored a hat-trick against West Ham last season? Harrison had one goal and three assists in the first three games of this season but none since so will be desperate to get his season going again.
Wolves (+271) at Aston Villa (+108) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Wolves
Villa picked up an impressive three points at Tottenham on New Year's Day which left them just outside the top half of the table. Wolves have looked better in their two games under Julen Lopetegui but goals are still hard to come by.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Aston Villa (+108) 1 unit
Villa has been much better since Unai Emery took charge. They've played five consecutive games against sides in the top eight of the league table and won three of them so they should have too much for Wolves.
Player to watch: Ollie Watkins
Watkins added an assist at Tottenham to his goal against Liverpool as he looks back towards his best since the restart. Villa will hope he can continue to be involved in and around the opponent's penalty area as they distance themselves from the relegation zone.
Tottenham (+119) at Crystal Palace (+248) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Tottenham
Tottenham made it seven consecutive EPL games in which they've conceded two or more goals and ten straight games in all competitions in which they've conceded the first goal of the game, when they lost to Aston Villa to begin 2023. Those trends will surely end soon and only the bottom five teams in the league table have scored fewer than Palace, so this looks like the perfect game to end those unwanted streaks. Palace has won four home games this season with the losses and one draw all coming against London teams.
Betting pick: Highest scoring half - Second half (+100) 1 unit
Whether Tottenham can end this wretched defensive run at Palace remains to be seen but no matter what has happened during that run, a constant has been second-half goals so expect that to continue regardless of the outcome.
Player to watch: Eberechi Eze
I've been harping on about Eze for much of the season. He now has three goals and three assists this season and his 52 shot-creating actions are more than any other Palace player.
Thursday, January 05th, 2023
Manchester City (-144) at Chelsea (+426) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 1 Manchester City
City's now picked up just four points from their last three EPL games and could be ten points adrift of Arsenal by the time they kick off at Chelsea. Chelsea still can't find much rhythm in the final third with just five goals scored in their last six games following their draw at Nottingham Forest.
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+107) 0.5 units
While Erling Haaland continues to score at an alarming pace, City will need someone else to step up and help ease some of the goal-scoring burden. Chelsea will likely look to neutralize him and keep things tight so a low-scoring affair could well be in order, especially after both EPL games between these two ended 1-0 last season.
Player to watch: Raheem Sterling
Sterling hasn't had the best of times since moving from Manchester City to Chelsea in the summer. He's played in multiple different positions but will be desperate to remind his former employees of his goal-scoring ability and score in back-to-back games.
Thursday, January 12th, 2023
Chelsea at Fulham 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Fulham 1 - 1 Chelsea
Fulham goes into Thursday's West London derby on the back of three straight league wins since the World Cup, scoring six goals in the process and finds themselves three points above their visitors entering this game.
Chelsea is currently sitting in tenth place in the league having won just once in their last eight EPL games and followed up last week's defeat against Manchester City with a 4-0 humbling against the same opponent in their FA Cup tie on Sunday. Pressure is mounting on Graham Potter and it remains to be seen how many more defeats the owner will tolerate.
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Both teams to score and Fulham to win or draw (+150) 0.5 units
Fulham has only kept two clean sheets in their nine home games but has scored in eight of them. As much as Chelsea's recent struggles have stemmed from a lack of goals, they've scored in six of their nine away games but only twice have they scored more than one and they've not done that in their last four away games. I'm struggling to see Chelsea win this game but think they can eke out a draw.
Player to watch: Bobby Reid
Mitrović and Pereira are the two most prominent and popular Fulham players in EPL but Reid shouldn't be overlooked. He's second on the team with four goals scored and has eight shot-creating actions in his last three league games (scoring once himself). Chelsea's left-back Marc Cucurella has struggled lately so don't be surprised if Reid has some joy against him on Thursday.
Parlays
Over 1.5 goals - Brentford/Liverpool, Everton/Brighton, Crystal Palace/Tottenham and Leeds United/West Ham United (+131) 2.5 units
Moneyline - Manchester United, Leicester City and Southampton to win (+501) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
