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We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Not a vintage set of fixtures this past week and one I'm glad we played lightly. Another quick turnaround for the weekend with Saturday's opener kicking off a little more than 36 hours after Matchweek 12 concluded. Again, we're going to tread carefully as the fixtures are coming thick and fast with the World Cup looming.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 51-55
- Total picks: 48-53-6
- Parlays: 3-15
- ROI: 96.54% (-3.01 units)
Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Liverpool (-402) at Nottingham Forest (+1032) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0 - 2 Liverpool
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Liverpool to win and under 3.5 total goals (+110) 1 unit
Liverpool's 1-0 win against West Ham on Wednesday wasn't convincing and they still lack creativity in the final third but have back-to-back clean sheets in the league. Forest have failed to score in three of their last four EPL games and only Wolves have scored fewer than them this season.
Player to watch: Darwin Nunez
Nunez scored Liverpool's winner in midweek and has two goals in his last three games. He's someone who can feed off of scraps and create a chance for himself so even if Liverpool lacks an edge in the final third, he should still be able to find a route to a goal himself.
Crystal Palace (+195) at Everton (+158) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Crystal Palace
Betting pick: Moneyline - Draw (+215) 0.5 units
Everton has now lost three straight after a miserable performance saw them have one shot in their 1-0 loss at Newcastle on Wednesday. Palace is unbeaten in their last three games but has yet to win away (three draws and one loss). These two have combined for eight draws in their 21 EPL games this season with 17 of those games being decided by less than two goals.
Player to watch: Anthony Gordon
Gordon came to prominence with his early season form but has failed to score in his last five games (four starts) and has yet to score in front of his home fans. This weekend will be a perfect time to end that streak and end Everton's losing run.
Brighton (+1365) at Manchester City (-522) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Brighton
Betting pick: Handicap - Manchester City -2.0 (+105) 1 unit
While City's away form is a bit sketchy, they've been imperious at home winning all five games and scoring 24 goals in the process. They've scored four or more in each game and won by two or more in all of them. Brighton is now winless in their last four games and has failed to score in their last three.
Player to watch: Erling Haaland
Ten of his 15 goals have come at home and Haaland has three hat tricks in his five home games. Expect City to bounce back from last weekend's loss at Liverpool and they should be refreshed after being the only team without a midweek fixture this week.
Manchester United (+263) at Chelsea (+114) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 0 Manchester United
Betting pick: Total goals - Under 2.5 (+111) 0.75 units
Their last five EPL meetings have seen two or fewer goals. Chelsea has kept three consecutive clean sheets while United has four clean sheets in their last seven games. I expect Chelsea to win but whatever the outcome, it looks like being a tight game with few goals.
Player to watch: Mason Mount
Mount has had a mini-renaissance since Graham Potter took charge and leads the team in shots (18) while being second in shot-creating actions (22). His two goals and two assists have all come in the last three games.
Sunday, October 23rd, 2022
Brentford (+251) at Aston Villa (+105) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1 - 2 Brentford
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Brentford (+151) NO BET
Villa continues to struggle and their resounding Thursday night defeat leaves them out of the relegation zone only on goal difference. Brentford has now kept a clean sheet in three of their last four games and took four points from their two meetings with Villa last season.
Following the sacking of Steven Gerrard prior to the game, I'm avoiding playing this on its own. I still fancy Brentford can pull off a win but I'm steering clear.
Player to watch: Mathias Jansen
While Ivan Toney continues to be Brentford's leading light with eight goals, Jansen is tied with Toney for shot-creating actions (26). Jansen is also Brentford's primary setpiece taker and is second in completed passes (330) on the team. He represents a good value play.
Arsenal (-176) at Southampton (+459) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Arsenal
Betting pick: Single game parlay - Arsenal total corners under 7.5 & over 0.5 total goals in each half (+100) 1 unit
Arsenal hasn't had more than five corners in any of their five away games and last weekend was the first time that there hasn't been a goal in both halves on their travels. Southampton's five home games have seen 13 goals scored while only once in those five games has an opponent taken more than six corners.
Player to watch: Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal's front four have combined for 16 goals and 11 assists in ten games so you can't really go wrong with picking any of them. I'm plumping for Martinelli this week as he should be facing Kyle Walker-Peters who leads Southampton in fouls (18) while having just a 50% success rate in tackles against a dribble. Martinelli leads the league in successful dribbles (25). Walker-Peters to be carded is a solid prop bet also.
Fulham (+255) at Leeds United (+105) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Fulham
Betting pick: Total team cards - Fulham over 2.5 cards (+120) 1 unit
Fulham has had three or more yellow cards in each of their away games and the referee for this game (Anthony Taylor) has shown 33 yellow cards and five red cards in nine games (an average of 4.2 cards per game). Leeds' opponents have had two or more cards in their last four home games.
Player to watch: Brenden Aaronson
Leeds is desperate for a spark as they come into this game without a win in their last seven games. Aaronson is second on the team for shot-creating actions (24) and third in shots (11) but only has one goal and one assist to show for it. Someone needs to step up for Leeds and the American international could be the man for the job.
Leicester City (+217) at Wolves (+126) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 1 Leicester City
Betting pick: Total goals in each half - Under 1.5 (+150) 0.5 units
Wolves remain a tough team to break down at home, with just four goals conceded in their five home matches. But they are the league's lowest scorers with five. Both teams could settle for a point given their poor form and I expect this to be a typical Wolves game with few goals.
Player to watch: Adama Traore
Traore is getting a run in the team again with his only three starts this season coming in Wolves' last three games. He scored last weekend and the goals and assists have been the only thing lacking from someone who is a physical specimen like no one else in the league.
Newcastle United (+265) at Tottenham (+108) 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Newcastle United
Betting pick: Half-time/Full-time - Draw/Tottenham (+477) 0.5 units
Tottenham has won all five of their home games this season but only led at half-time in two of them. Newcastle's only away win came at Fulham when the hosts were reduced to ten men inside ten minutes. Newcastle has only conceded one away goal in the first half so expect a close game that Tottenham manages to win in the final 30 minutes.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
Kane doesn't have the best record against Newcastle, with 'only' seven goals and three assists in 14 games but he does have five goals and three assists in the last six matches against them. His last home goal against them came in May 2018. His run of five consecutive games in which he scored in the EPL ended on Wednesday but expect a new streak to begin on Sunday.
Monday, October 24th, 2022
Bournemouth (+546) at West Ham United (-180) 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 0 Bournemouth
Betting pick: Winning margin - West Ham United by 1 goal (+254) 0.5 units
West Ham should've taken at least a point at Liverpool on Wednesday but their three-game unbeaten run was ended. Meanwhile, Bournemouth's six-game unbeaten run was ended by Southampton on Wednesday. Both defeats were 1-0 and I expect Bournemouth to give a good account of themselves but West Ham should have enough quality to take the win.
Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen
After a slow start to his season, Bowen has two goals in his last four games and missed the chance to make it three goals in four games after failing to convert from the penalty spot against Liverpool. He's had at least three shots in his last four home games and leads the team in shot-creating actions (32).
Parlays
Moneyline: Chelsea, Tottenham and West Ham United to win (+592) 0.75 units
Total goals: Leeds/Fulham, Aston Villa/Brentford and Southampton/Arsenal all over 1.5 goals (-120) 2 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
