RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 23 of the 2022/23 season, starting on 02/11/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts and looking at the best options for your lineups
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
This week sees a double gameweek for the league's top two teams which could go a long way to determining where the title goes this season. We're continuing with our increased focus on FPL for each game and we're now including our new feature, tabling the main three betting options for each game based on what the score predictions for every fixture.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 95-115
- Total picks: 90-112-10
- Parlays: 11-25
- ROI: 100.91% (1.70 units)
Saturday, February 11th, 2023
Chelsea (+125) at West Ham United (+235) 07:30 am ET
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Chelsea
Two teams in the midst of disappointing seasons kick things off this weekend and there's little to choose between them. Chelsea's massive expenditure on new players is yet to reap any dividends although they do come into this weekend on the back of three consecutive clean sheets. They have only scored one goal in that run. West Ham has gone back-to-back games without losing for the first time since October (11 games ago) and a win here would put some daylight between them and the bottom three.
Not a single Chelsea player stands out this week as a viable FPL option although I wouldn't bet against them keeping a fourth straight clean sheet, making one of their defenders an ok play. I just wouldn't look to stack them. West Ham's Jarrod Bowen is someone I've been keeping tabs on and I'm expecting him to go on a hot run of form which could start this week and he makes a sneaky starting option in FPL and DFS.
Brentford (+700) at Arsenal (-250) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 - 1 Brentford
Arsenal will be looking to bounce back from last weekend's setback and maintain their unbeaten home record prior to Wednesday's massive clash with Manchester City. Brentford comes into this one in great form however, unbeaten in their last nine EPL games and having taken 14 points from a possible 18 since the World Cup. But they do only have two wins from their ten away EPL games, drawing five of them.
Arsenal's attacking quartet will all be popular plays this week and highly captained given their double gameweek. but I'm steering clear of Gabriel Martinelli this week as I suspect he might sit out one of their games with Leandro Trossard possibly starting on Saturday. Martinelli has now gone four games without a goal or assist and was taken off before the hour mark last weekend. For Brentford, Ivan Toney is always in play but while I believe Brentford makes it an interesting game, I'm not confident in anyone one player.
Brighton (+105) at Crystal Palace (+280) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Brighton
Brighton's four-game unbeaten run has seen them reach sixth place in the league table and they continue finding goals easy to come by. Last week's 1-0 win was the first time since the World Cup (six games) they've failed to score two or more in a game but they are still averaging 2.5 goals a game in this run. Palace is struggling to find goals with just two scores in their last five games and they've only picked up two points in that run. They will want to get out of this slump to avoid getting sucked into a relegation battle.
Brighton has a myriad of solid FPL plays, headlined by Kaoru Mitoma who has four goals and one assist in his last five EPL games. Solly March has gone two games without any goal involvement while it's three games for Pascal Groß, neither of whom I'm desperate to play but I wouldn't be averse to starting either if I rostered them. My second favorite play for Brighton is actually full-back Pervis Estupiñán, with a clean sheet in play and a possible source for an assist. Palace's form is such I'm avoiding them completely.
Nottingham Forest (+310) at Fulham (-110) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Fulham 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest
Forest's five-game unbeaten run in the EPL has seen them put daylight between themselves and the relegation zone. Goals are still hard to come by, with just six during their unbeaten streak but they have only conceded two in that time. Fulham is in the midst of a mini-drought, without a goal in three consecutive games. They have only conceded four goals in their seven games since the World Cup and won four straight before their recent struggles.
Forest has a couple of intriguing plays in FPL, with Morgan Gibbs-White a player of intrigue. He has two goals and five assists this season and leads the team in shot-creating actions (69) while top-scorer Brennan Johnson has three goals and two assists in his last four games. I'm just not convinced Forest finds the net this weekend. Forest's defense is in play for a clean sheet though. For Fulham, I'm fine playing a cheap defensive option given Forest is far from a lock to score but top scorer Aleksandar Mitrović is in a dry spell and I'm not confident in any of their midfielders or attackers right now.
Tottenham (+240) at Leicester City (+115) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 2 - 3 Tottenham
Leicester's much-needed win last weekend means they come into this game having scored six goals in their last two games, but conceded four also. They appear to have returned to their early season form when their games see plenty of goals. Tottenham continued their hex at home to Manchester City and their 1-0 victory saw them win back-to-back EPL games for the first time since mid-October (13 games ago). That was also the last time they kept consecutive clean sheets in the league.
I expect Tottenham to get suckered into playing a free-flowing game which probably won't end well for the home side. Tottenham has won their last four EPL encounters with Leicester with an aggregate score of 16-7, including the 6-2 win earlier in the season. Any of Tottenham's players are good options but I'm especially making sure Harry Kane is in my lineups. Kane has 18 goals and four assists in 15 EPL games against Leicester and eight goals and three assists in the last eight.
I'm also high on Ivan Perišić this week as Leicester has struggled against left-sided players of late with goals against them coming from that side. Perišić's streak without an assist (four games) could easily come to an end on Saturday. For Leicester, James Maddison's return from injury is a key contributing factor to their recent goal-scoring exploits and he found the net last week. He's been one of the most dropped players in FPL since the World Cup but that trend ends now. Leicester also has an intriguing option who will be covered later.
Wolves (+160) at Southampton (+195) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Southampton 0 - 2 Wolves
Southampton will likely be looking for their third manager of the season if they lose on Saturday and are destined for the drop unless things change dramatically. Their 2-1 win against Everton last month is the only game they haven't lost in their last nine EPL games. It's also the only time they've scored more than one in a game since August (17 games ago). Wolves' revival under Julen Lopetegui has seen them take seven points from their last four games and they're averaging 1.17 goals a game since his arrival, a marked improvement on their 0.53 average before his appointment.
Southampton is the easiest fade in FPL and DFS this week. James Ward-Prowse is always a threat from set-pieces but they look like a team going through the motions until their manager is ousted. Wolves' uptick in form does offer some FPL value and all of their defense is in play with two clean sheets in their last three games. They also possess a solid midfield option that should be on more teams moving forward and is included in the unloved nuggets section at the end of the article.
Newcastle United (-185) at Bournemouth (+550) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Bournemouth 0 - 1 Newcastle United
Bournemouth's lack of goals has become a major issue as they currently sit in 19th place in the league table having scored just once since the World Cup (six games). They've also failed to keep a clean sheet in that time and have just one point in that spell. Newcastle's struggles in front of goal aren't as bad as this week's opponents but still an issue with just two goals in their last five games. They had kept six consecutive clean sheets before last weekend's 1-1 draw with West Ham United which has mitigated their profligacy somewhat.
Bournemouth is another easy avoid for FPL and DFS but a case can be made for their defense as a variance play. The 11 goals conceded at home are the fewest of any team in the bottom half of the table and they have kept four clean sheets at home (ten games). That is another reason why I'm avoiding the Newcastle attacking players this week but their defense is always a great stack option and there's more on that later on.
Sunday, February 12th, 2023
Manchester United (-115) at Leeds United (+295) 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 2 Manchester United
In an unusual quirk, these two played the reverse fixture on Wednesday. Leeds took an early lead, then doubled it early in the second half but failed to hold on with Manchester United coming back to secure a point with a 2-2 draw. Leeds remains on the search for a new manager while Manchester United has now won just one of their last four EPL games. It's never easy predicting how a game goes between two teams who are facing each other twice in quick succession, especially when one of them is seeking a new manager.
Leeds' young winger Wilfried Gnonto scored the opener in midweek and he is a player of interest given his direct nature and he's flashed plenty of potential so far. Leeds has struggled for goals though, which is holding him back. A new manager and new ideas could change that. For Manchester United, Marcus Rashford will continue to be a heavily played option, but there's more on him later. Casemiro's suspension does weaken them significantly and there's no one I'd be keen to start apart from Luke Shaw in the hope he can offer an attacking threat.
Aston Villa (+1000) at Manchester City (-425) 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 0 Aston Villa
City's form is so sketchy as last week's 1-0 defeat at Tottenham made it consecutive away defeats. But they've been imperious at home with nine wins from their 11 games and 38 goals scored, which is 13 more than the second-highest home scorers. Villa was brought back down to Earth with a bump last weekend, losing 4-2 at home to Leicester City and their three-game winning streak away from home is set to come to an end on Sunday.
I'm not playing any Villa player in FPL considering their opponents but that doesn't necessarily mean City players are a lock. Erling Haaland is the only player I'm playing with any confidence and he's also a great option for the captain's armband in FPL given his double gameweek. The issue with City is, we simply don't know who else will play both games.
Ederson should start both games in goal but the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Kevin de Bruyne and Jack Grealish are far from locks to start both matches and there simply isn't another City attacking player I'd bank on two starts this week. They do have one interesting defender feature later on.
Monday, February 13th, 2023
Everton (+500) at Liverpool (-195) 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 1 - 1 Everton
The Merseyside Derby is usually one of the most eagerly awaited fixtures every year and with Liverpool's struggles and Everton's 'new dawn', this one is no exception. Liverpool will be desperate to end their four-game winless streak and three-game goalless spell, while Everton will be eager to make it back-to-back wins for just the second time this season. It's generally a tough game to predict and it's set to be a cagier game than we're used to seeing between these two.
There's not a single Liverpool player you can trust in FPL right now, although I wouldn't be at all surprised if January signing Cody Gakpo scores his first Liverpool goal in this game. Everton's 1-0 win against Arsenal last week gave us a glimpse of what we can expect moving forward. It was very much a Sean Dyche 'Burnleyesque' type performance and their defense might become a solid stacking option in the coming weeks. Amadou Onana is their one standout player in midfield but goals might not be too plentiful over the next few months for Everton.
Betting Picks
As per the introduction, we're mixing things up with the betting picks moving forward. Rather than seeking out special plays for every game, we'll look at the most common three plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score) per game based on the score prediction.
The below table gives the odds for each of those plays and we'll be playing three parlays using every game once with a total of ten units played. The picks for each parlay are highlighted for each game, but feel free to utilize the table as you wish.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| West Ham 1 – 1 Chelsea | Draw +230 | u2.5 -150 | Yes -115 |
| Arsenal 2 – 1 Brentford | Arsenal -250 | o2.5 -135 | Yes -105 |
| Leicester 2 – 3 Tottenham | Tottenham +115 | o2.5 -135 | Yes -175 |
| Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Brighton | Brighton +105 | o2.5 +105 | Yes -125 |
| Fulham 0 – 0 Nottingham Forest | Draw +260 | u2.5 -120 | No +100 |
| Southampton 0 – 2 Wolves | Wolves +160 | u2.5 -160 | No -110 |
| Bournemouth 0 – 1 Newcastle | Newcastle -185 | u2.5 -120 | No -120 |
| Leeds 1 – 2 Manchester United | Manchester United -115 | o2.5 -160 | Yes -180 |
| Manchester City 3 – 0 Aston Villa | Manchester City -425 | o2.5 -210 | No -135 |
| Liverpool 1 – 1 Everton | Draw +330 | U2.5 +100 | Yes -120 |
Parlays
Moneyline (+590) 4 units
Over/Under 2.5 goals (+1010) 2.5 units
Both teams to score (+615) 3.5 units
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defenses to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choices for this week.
Stack the D
As normal, Newcastle United is the best stacking option considering how bad their opponent Bournemouth has been in front of goal. But there's also an added bonus of Kieran Trippier being on set-pieces and getting to face the team that's conceded more goals from set-pieces (13) than any other team this season. Putting in one of their other defenders plus Nick Pope in your lineups could easily yield three clean sheets, an assist and possibly even a goal.
Unloved nuggets
The departure of Joao Cancelo reinforces Pep Guardiola's faith in Rico Lewis, who has found himself a regular starter at left-back for Manchester City in recent games. At just £3.9M and 1.8% rostered, he makes a great play moving forward, especially given his license to roam around the pitch in a similar vein to Cancelo. This week's double gameweek could be the start of a huge increase in his rostered percentage.
Wolves' resurgence has meant Ruben Neves (1.5% rostered) is back in play for your FPL teams. He's the most creative player on the team and although double-digit weeks won't be frequent, he will chip in with more goals and assists than he did before the World Cup. Facing the side bottom of the table this weekend makes him a very interesting option.
After nabbing two goals in the EFL Cup semi-final tie and an assist in the EPL last weekend, Newcastle United’s Sean Longstaff (1.2% rostered) is a sneaky low-rostered player with his form set to continue against a team in the relegation zone. Just keep in mind that he doesn’t have a game in week 25.
This one is a real dart thrown as he only made his debut last week following a January move. But Leicester's Tetê (0.1% rostered) scored on his debut and gave added emphasis to Leicester City's attacking play. He scored six goals with two assists (17 games) in Ligue 1 before the move and if recent history is anything to go by, Leicester's game with Tottenham will offer up plenty of goals.
Avoid the trap
Marcus Rashford has been arguably the league's most in-form player since the World Cup but I'm avoiding him where possible this weekend. His home record (nine goals and two assists in 11 games) is vastly superior to his away record (two goals and one assist in 11 games) and although he did score against Leeds in the reverse fixture on Wednesday, facing the same opponent twice in a few days can also throw up some unusual results and performances.
One for the watchlist
James Maddison was one of the most rostered players at the start of the season, but a lean spell followed by an injury after the World Cup has seen Maddison now on just 3.6% of teams. But his first EPL start since November saw him score and he will be crucial to Leicester's bid to steer clear of the relegation zone. He's a solid play this week in what should be a high-scoring game and definitely someone I'll be looking at adding to my team in the coming weeks.
Lock of the week
Erling Haaland will be the most captained player this week, and rightly so given he gets two games. But Harry Kane is the player I'm guaranteeing scores a goal this week. I've already covered his ridiculous record against Leicester City and he's scored five goals with two assists in seven games since the World Cup. Along with death and taxes, Kanes scoring against Leicester is one of life's certainty.
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
