477.16, 442.14, 551.98, 471.58. Those are the point totals for the number one fantasy QB for the past four years in a league awarding 1 point per 25 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing, and 6 points for all TDs. Throw out Peyton Manning's 551.98 point record-breaking outlier of a season where his wife was getting HGH shipped to the house, and suddenly you have a QB1 average point output of 463.63 points. Let's call it 464 to keep things simple.

That is the threshold that has to be reached for a QB to realistically have a shot at finishing the season as QB1. If you can't come up with a realistic narrative for a QB getting to that number, you can cross your dreams about owning the top QB in your league out the window.

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A Deeper Dive Into Eli Manning

QB1 has come in all different shapes and sizes the past four years, so there is no exact formula to follow here, especially when you are searching QB's outside of the top 10 ADP at the position. Cam Newton did it last season with an improved passing attack and his always-to-be-feared running presence. In 2014, Aaron Rodgers dodged, dipped, dove, ducked, and dodged around defensive linemen to one of the most efficient season's of all time passing out of the pocket. In 2013, Peyton Manning set records Omaha'ing his offense into the correct play time and time again. And all the way back in 2012, Drew Brees craned his neck to see over his big offensive line and continued to display an accuracy rarely seen outside of the greats.

Aside from the names above and maybe Andrew Luck, it's hard to come up with an argument for a quarterback, especially one being drafted outside of the top 10 QBs, to become QB1. In my mind, unless you have a Cam-like runner (there is really only one of those guys in the world), you need to be looking for someone that can throw for 4800+ yards and 40+ TD's. Those type of numbers don't show up out of nowhere. You don't luck your way into numbers like that. You need weapons to produce like that. You need to stay healthy to put up those numbers. With that in mind, we have our formula. Capable of 4800 and 40, healthy, good weapons, and a passing offense. If I'm looking for someone that fits these criteria outside of the obvious choices, I'm looking directly at Eli Manning.

Criteria #1: 4800+ yards - There are only 18 instances in history of QBs throwing for at least 4800 yards. Eli was able to accomplish this feat in 2011, throwing for 4933 yards. PASS

Criteria #2: 40+ TDs - This has only happened 11 times in the history of the NFL and while Eli has not accomplished it himself, he is trending in the right direction. He threw a career high 35 touchdowns last season. FAIL

Criteria #3: Passing Offense: The Giants had one of the worst rushing offenses in the league last season by almost every measure, including being tied for 31st in the league in rushing touchdowns and they only brought in 5th round draft pick Paul Perkins in an attempt to change that. The ball will be thrown early and often, especially with new head coach and former Aaron Rodgers QB guru, Ben McAdoo, at the helm. PASS

Criteria #4: Offensive Weapons: Victor Cruz comeback aside, the Giants have some of the best weapons in the league. Second-round draft pick Sterling Shepard has made heads turn, including those of the defenders trying to cover him, throughout pre-season activity. While the running game struggled last season, Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen both provide Eli with options to throw to out of the backfield. And then of course you have Odell Beckham Jr., perhaps the best receiver in all of football. All Beckham has done in his 27 career games is average more receiving yards per game (102) than anyone else in the history of football while adding nearly a TD per game (25 TDs in 27 games). PASS

Criteria #5: Health: Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since he took over the job in 2004, starting in 183 consecutive regular season games. With an improved offensive line, Eli should stay on his feet more this season and continue to be the active leader in consecutive QB starts. PASS

At the end of the day Eli Manning passes 4/5 of the categories above, with his only "failure" coming in the TD category which we know is one of the most volatile stats we use in fantasy football. While I doubt Eli will hit 80% of his passes as he did in the five criteria above, I see him challenging for the QB1 spot despite being drafted outside of the top 10 QBs.

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