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The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts.
Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple surprise performances from the rookie wide receiver draft class. There were five rookies to end the 2023 season in the top-36 wide receivers in half-point PPR scoring, including fifth-round pick Puka Nacua being the WR4. Meanwhile, Tank Dell and Rashee Rice were outstanding to end their rookie season, becoming plug-and-play wide receivers for fantasy players.
Let’s dive into some potential ADP values, busts, and sleeper candidates at the wide receiver position for the 2024 season. The ADP for the article is courtesy of Underdog Fantasy.
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Wide Receiver Values
Amari Cooper (CLE): ADP 47.6 | WR29
Cooper has never gotten the respect he deserves from the fantasy football community. The veteran was the WR18 last season, averaging 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite missing the final two contests. More importantly, the former Alabama star was outstanding for fantasy players despite catching passes from four different quarterbacks. Yet, Cooper’s fantasy points per game average could have been better if not for Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game in the 12 games he played that the rookie quarterback didn’t start.
Some will be afraid to draft the veteran wide receiver because of Deshaun Watson’s recent injury history. While Joe Flacco signed with the Indianapolis Colts in free agency, the Browns added Jameis Winston. The former No. 1 overall pick isn’t an elite quarterback but has been outstanding for the fantasy value of his top wide receiver. Meanwhile, some will move Cooper down in their draft rankings because of the Jerry Jeudy addition. Yet, Jeudy has averaged more than 8.2 fantasy points per game in only one year of his career.
George Pickens (PIT): ADP 53.1 | WR32
The Steelers could select a wide receiver with their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, that likely won’t happen, given the team’s history and needs on the roster. Pickens has been frustrating for fantasy players. He has flashed significant upside and big-play abilities, pulling off highlight reel catches. Unfortunately, the impressive plays come far and few between disappointing moments, like not getting a second foot down for a touchdown catch. Yet, Pickens is a prime third-year breakout following the Diontae Johnson trade.
Last year, Pickens was the WR26, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He was outstanding during the four games Johnson missed with a hamstring injury, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per contest despite scoring only two touchdowns. More importantly, Pickens had a 29.6% higher target per route run rate and 42.2% higher first-read target share in those four games compared to the rest of the year (per Fantasy Points Data). The star receiver should be even better following Pittsburgh’s upgrade at the quarterback position this offseason.
George Pickens in four games without Diontae Johnson last season:
4-127-1
4-75-0
3-25-0
6-130-1— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife) March 13, 2024
Wide Receiver Busts
Davante Adams (LV): ADP 20.4 | WR12
Adams is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and fantasy football history. Yet, fantasy players should have concerns about him in 2024. The superstar was a WR1 last season despite playing with multiple subpar quarterbacks. He averaged 12.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his lowest average since his second year in the league. Yet, Adams averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Mike Williams (13.6) and Tank Dell (12.9). Furthermore, his yards per route run rate (per Fantasy Points Data) has declined in three consecutive seasons.
Instead of making a blockbuster move, the Raiders signed Gardner Minshew to compete with Aidan O'Connell. While the team could draft a quarterback, it likely won’t be a Day 1 prospect. Meanwhile, fantasy players should worry about Adams’ target share moving forward. Last year, he finished second in the league with 175 targets. However, 23.4% of his targets came in two contests. Furthermore, Adams scored 31.2% of his fantasy points for the year in those two games. The veteran shouldn’t have an ADP in the low-end WR1 range.
Stefon Diggs (BUF): ADP 23.9 | WR15
After years of being a top-15 pick lock, fantasy players should change their outlook on Diggs for next season. The veteran has been outstanding in Buffalo, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game since teaming up with Josh Allen. However, he has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. Yet, Diggs was outstanding to start the 2023 season, averaging 10.8 targets and 17.8 fantasy points per game over the first nine weeks. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff with the change at offensive coordinator.
The veteran was the WR55 over the final six contests of the fantasy season, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game, totaling more than seven fantasy points only once. Diggs’ yards per route run rate dropped by 41% during the regular season after the change at offensive coordinator (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the star wide receiver turns 31 in November. Furthermore, he might not be back in Buffalo next year, adding more uncertainty and concern to his fantasy value. Diggs is a low-end WR2 and not a top-15 guy.
The Detroit Lions have been LINKED to Buffalo Bills Stefon Diggs if the team decides to move Diggs pic.twitter.com/v4GR1BRvGC
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) March 23, 2024
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Diontae Johnson (CAR): ADP 79.4 | WR43
Unfortunately, Johnson’s production has been frustrating for fantasy players the past two seasons. The veteran had the best year of his career in 2021, totaling 107 receptions on 169 targets for 1,161 receiving yards, eight touchdowns, and 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, all career highs. That was Ben Roethlisberger’s last season in the NFL, leaving Johnson to struggle with Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph under center. The former Toledo star had unbelievably poor touchdown luck in 2022, never finding the end zone despite having 147 targets.
While he scored five receiving touchdowns last year, Johnson set a career low in receptions (51). Thankfully, the veteran got traded to the Panthers this offseason, becoming Bryce Young’s go-to No. 1 wide receiver. Adam Thielen was a top-five wide receiver for the first several weeks of the 2023 season. Johnson is a far superior route runner and separator than Thielen at this point in their careers. Unless Carolina pulls off a blockbuster move for a receiver, Johnson will be a WR2 for fantasy players next year.
No surprise to true ball knowers:
Diontae Johnson has our 1st Full Green route tree of the off-season pic.twitter.com/D7qIYOlNib
— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) March 19, 2024
Darnell Mooney (ATL): ADP 157.5 | WR71
Mooney’s best season of his career came in 2021. Despite catching passes from rookie year Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles, the former Tulane star was the WR24, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game on an awful Chicago Bears offense. Yet, the receiver set career highs in almost every category, including receiving yards (1,055) and fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, his production regressed over the past two seasons because of injuries and inconsistent quarterback play. However, that won’t be the case in 2024.
The Atlanta Falcons made several significant moves in free agency, including the addition of Mooney. However, the top signing was Kirk Cousins. The Falcons have sought a starting-caliber quarterback since Matt Ryan’s prime years. More importantly, Cousins is an excellent quarterback for fantasy players. The veteran has produced multiple top-12 wide receivers, including two in the same year twice (2018 and 2020). Mooney won’t be a top-20 wide receiver as long as Drake London and Kyle Pitts are healthy. Yet, he will easily outperform his WR71 ADP.
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