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Jackson Sparks identifies top fantasy football best ball sleepers at QB, RB, WR, and TE for 2023 fantasy drafts. Which NFL players are best ball sleepers?
The 2022 fantasy football season saw plenty of sleepers pay off and high draft capital players bust, but that's always part of the game. Fantasy football addicts who are reading this article are sure to be drafting teams for 2023 or are just looking ahead, so it's time to dive into the top best ball sleepers for 2023 fantasy football!
While we see rookies (especially wide receivers) pay off and them some at ADP every year, this article will focus on all players except 2023 rookies. The 2023 rookie class will get plenty of coverage through a fantasy football lens, but we can't forget about young players and veterans who are poised to break out and bounce back during the 2023 season.
Always remember the golden rule of drafting -- never fade a particular player, fade ADPs! That being said, some of these players had disastrous seasons in 2022, but their early best ball ADP makes them attractive sleepers. Not every player you draft can be a superstar, but taking a solid flex piece of depth QB at a huge discount can prove valuable toward capturing a best ball title. Without further ado, let's dive in! Average Draft Position based on Underdog ADP from July 4 to July 11, 2023.
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Quarterback Best Ball Fantasy Football Sleepers
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
QB18 ADP
There are sure to be plenty of fantasy enthusiasts rolling their eyes at the thought of drafting Wilson after the worst season of his career, which is exactly why I'll be drafting him in bunches this offseason and heading into next season. One down season shouldn't discredit Wilson's illustrious body of work, so I'm comfortable taking the flyer on him at QB17 ADP.
While the thought of Sean Payton fixing all of the Broncos' offensive woes in one offseason isn't realistic, it certainly won't hurt to have him calling plays. Jerry Jeudy showed flashes of breaking out in his third season and the team gets Tim Patrick back from a torn ACL. Marvin Mims could also make a big impact as a rookie. Expect Denver to add to its offensive weaponry this offseason. A low-end QB1 season for Wilson is in his range of outcomes.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
QB27 ADP
The Commanders' offense has plenty of offensive firepower with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson, so don't be surprised if the offense looks better than expected under the new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy. Ron Rivera seems sincere when he says Howell will operate as the starter next year, so he's worth a dart throw as a late-round backup QB in best ball.
Howell rushed for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns in his final season at North Carolina, so he has more rushing upside than he's given credit for. Since his price is so low, there's not much to lose here.
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
QB32 ADP
In his first two full seasons as the Titans' starter, Tannehill posted QB1 numbers and finished only behind Cam Newton and Kyler Murray for the most rushing touchdowns among signal-callers. Last season, Tannehill finished as just the QB27, but there are plenty of reasons for the slump. His offensive line was one of the worst pass-blocking units in football and after losing A.J. Brown, his wide receiver group was among the worst in the league.
He only shared the field with Treylon Burks for eight games, but otherwise relied on Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to be his top two options in the passing game. His rushing upside was limited thanks to an early-season high ankle sprain that hindered him all season, too.
A lot of NFL fans and media members assume Tannehill won't be the Titans' starter for most of 2023 with Will Levis joining the team, but there's still a good chance he gets one more shot at it. If he starts at least 10 games, his production will likely be worth the flyer.
Running Back Best Ball Fantasy Football Sleepers
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
RB18 ADP
Dobbins is viewed as damaged goods after a major knee injury that cost him his entire 2021 season. He reaggravated the injury and missed a chunk of the 2022 campaign, but looked good late in the season. Dobbins posted games of 120, 125, and 93 yards in three of his final four regular season contests. On the season, Dobbins averaged 5.7 yards per carry. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken coming in, there's a chance he could see a usage increase.
Dobbins was an electric prospect with real pass-catching upside, so he makes for a solid RB1 on a zero-RB build team. The further removed he is from knee surgeries, the more effective he should become.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
RB21 ADP
Akers was in the Sean McVay dog house and was rumored to be a trade or cut candidate in the middle of the 2022 season, but down the stretch, he looked more like what the fantasy community expected when the Rams drafted him in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Akers finished no lower than the RB25 (PPR) in each of his final six games, including an RB1, RB8, and RB11 finish. He rushed for more than 5.0 yards per carry over his final four contests.
Ultimately, Darrell Henderson is gone, and the Rams only added Sony Michel and Zach Evans to its backfield. After considering retirement, McVay is back as the Rams' head coach in 2023 and the offense will get back a healthy Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. While we can't fully expect the offense to get back to its Super Bowl-winning form, I expect somewhat of a bounce back – meaning more scoring opportunities for Akers.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB26 ADP
At RB26 ADP, White is seemingly being drafted at his floor, so he's another zero-RB build target. Leonard Fournette was cut this offseason, yet White hasn't catapulted to a top-20 running back off the board. White has the pass-catching chops to be an RB1, even in an underwhelming offense.
Ultimately, this Tampa Bay team could be headed toward a rebuild, so expect the franchise to see what they have in their young assets next season. Tampa spent Day 2 draft capital on White, so they're not going to let the young RB sit in the wings much longer.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
RB31 ADP
While Gibson's RB1 days might be behind him, he's still a value at the RB31 spot. Sure, there are plenty of young, fun running backs coming into the NFL, but Gibson remains a top-flight pass-catcher among running backs and should see plenty of work in the new-look Eric Bieniemy offense.
Despite underwhelming last season, Gibson finished as the RB28 in PPR leagues. If Washington's offense can take a step forward, his floor is likely around the RB25 spot this upcoming year. Brian Robinson has a feel-good story, but Gibson has a more well-rounded skill set and PPR upside. If he falls anywhere lower than the RB30 range of your best ball draft, take him without hesitation. Could we see him in the Jerick McKinnon role in 2023?
Wide Receiver Best Ball Fantasy Football Sleepers
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
WR30 ADP
Johnson infamously broke the NFL record for most targets without a touchdown reception (147) in 2022. His 147 targets placed him tied for seventh in the league. The usage was there, but it didn't come together and materialize into fantasy production. Nonetheless, wide receivers with rookie quarterbacks are historically poor fantasy options, so a step forward in Year 2 of the Kenny Pickett era could be an explosive one for Johnson.
Johnson has done nothing but dominate the Steelers' target share in each of the last three seasons. Even as a rookie, the Toledo product earned 92 targets. While George Pickens is an exciting young player, he figures to be a deep threat who makes the most of his targets, but Johnson should continue being the No. 1 volume option. Ultimately, better days are ahead for the Pittsburgh offense, so his 2023 ADP being a few spots lower than his 2022 PPR finish is a big mistake and will be corrected as the season draws closer. Take advantage now.
Tight End Best Ball Fantasy Football Sleepers
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
TE16 ADP
The Chicago Bears offense was flat-out awful in 2022, but Kmet still finished as the TE8 in PPR leagues. He led the team in receiving and posted seven touchdowns en route to the first TE1 season of his career. Chicago ranked last in passing yards per game by a wide margin, accumulating just 130.5 yards per game through the air. The probability of the passing offense taking a step back is almost zero, so why is his ADP taking a step back from his 2022 finish?
Yes, injuries to Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, Darren Waller, and Kyle Pitts likely propelled him into a top-eight season, but Kmet has every chance to replicate a mid-level tight end season in 2023. Chicago is sure to add more pass-catching options, but he'll continue to be the red zone target hog and security outlet for Justin Fields in Year 3. If you miss on Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or T.J. Hockenson, you might as well take the value on Kmet since tight ends are eerily close in fantasy production after the first two tiers.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks
TE32 ADP
Geno Smith far exceeded expectations in 2022 and supported Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf's productive fantasy seasons, but Fant also finished as a top-20 fantasy tight end during his first year in Seattle. Fant is a size-speed specimen waiting to break out and is entering his age-25 season. Tight end breakouts often take longer due to the complexity of the position, but with Geno Smith back in Seattle, it could finally be that time for the former Iowa Hawkeye.
Even if Fant posts similar numbers but adds a few red zone touchdowns, he has a shot at low-end TE1 production. At tight end, the idea is to target fast, big, and athletic pass-catchers in good offenses. In 2023, Fant fits the bill.
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