RADIO
Now that the NFL Draft has concluded, we are officially into the dreaded purgatory period until the season kicks off. From the date of this writing we are 116 days out, but who's counting? The good news for many across the dynasty landscape is that rookie drafts have begun. If you missed part 1 of my rookie draft series, look no further than this Four-Round Rookie Mock Draft Guide.
One thing to always consider when ranking rookies is the draft capital of the player (post-NFL Draft) and the future draft capital of the team who drafted him. Many dynasty managers with shares of Michael Carter Jr. were torpedoed when the Jets selected Breece Hall early in the second round.
I recently wrapped up six rookie drafts on FFPC and will share the results below. It's easy for a dynasty analyst to run with the hot take of the moment, but I am someone who believes in putting my money where my mouth is. The league format for each rookie draft consisted of a 12-team full PPR Superflex TE Premium format. In FFPC, there is a seven-Round Rookie and Free Agent draft every offseason. While each draft was different, there was a pattern across each one that showed how the community is thinking when it comes to their rookie drafts.
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QB and RB Values for Fantasy Football Rookies
As is the case with any Superflex draft, Quarterbacks are always going to fly off the board quickly due to need and positional scarcity with Running Backs soon to follow. The 2022 Rookie class is deep at wide receiver and the drafters on FFPC placed a premium on QBs and RBs.
The table below shows the results of the six FFPC rookie drafts and how each player fared:
| 12-team S/F TE Prem - PPR (QB & RB ADPs) | ||||||||
| Pos | Player | Avg ADP |
SF #105 |
SF #292 |
SF #306 |
SF #320 |
SF #384 |
SF #483 |
| QB | Kenny Pickett | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 1.1 | 1.06 |
| QB | Malik Willis | 2.01 | 2.06 | 2.08 | 2.01 | 1.08 | 1.05 | 2.03 |
| QB | Desmond Ridder | 2.06 | 2.07 | 2.02 | 2.06 | 2.05 | 2.06 | 2.1 |
| QB | Matt Corral | 2.1 | 2.03 | 3.03 | 2.08 | 2.1 | 3.03 | 2.06 |
| QB | Sam Howell | 3.07 | 2.11 | 2.12 | 2.1 | 3.12 | 5.03 | 3.05 |
| RB | Breece Hall | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| RB | James Cook | 1.12 | 1.1 | 2.05 | 1.1 | 2.02 | 1.12 | 1.1 |
| RB | Rachaad White | 2.01 | 1.12 | 2.04 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 2.03 | 1.12 |
| RB | Isaiah Spiller | 2.03 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 2.05 | 2.07 | 1.11 | 2.04 |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | 2.1 | 2.12 | 2.09 | 3.02 | 2.04 | 2.07 | 2.12 |
| RB | Zamir White | 2.11 | 2.08 | 3.01 | 2.09 | 3.05 | 2.11 | 2.08 |
| RB | Tyler Allgeier | 3.02 | 3.03 | 2.11 | 3.06 | 2.08 | 3.08 | 3.03 |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | 3.02 | 3.01 | 2.07 | 2.12 | 3.06 | 3.06 | 3.01 |
Only one quarterback came away from the 2022 NFL Draft likely to play right away and that is Kenny Pickett. Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder are intriguing fantasy options because of their rushing upside, but there is no guarantee that either of them sees the field. Matt Corral and Sam Howell find themselves in similar situations. While neither of them has Ridder's or Willis's athleticism, Corral does have a shot to play in 2022 with only Sam Darnold to compete against currently. Drafting any QB outside of Pickett in the first round seems like a reach. If you take any of the other QBs in this draft you must accept that it could be a complete swing and miss.
While Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier are intriguing options due to the reality that the RB job could be theirs this upcoming season, it's important to remember that they were both drafted on Day Three with picks 107 and 151 overall respectively. Pierce could produce for your lineups right away in 2022, but the Texans have two first-round picks in 2023 as well as 2024 from the Deshaun Watson trade. As they continue to stock up on skill players in their rebuild, another highly-drafted running back could be a part of that plan.
Reaching for Day Three players like Pierce, Zamir White, Tyler Allgeier, and Brian Robinson Jr. over Day Two wide receivers came as a big a surprise, but it revealed how badly certain dynasty teams needed backfield help. While they have the shortest shelf-life, elite RBs win dynasty championships.
WR and TE Values for Fantasy Football Rookies
If you are someone who is undertaking a rebuild of sorts, the value for this draft was in the wide receiver position along with Trey McBride as the first drafted tight end off the board. Due to the glaring needs of some teams at QB and RB, the values for the WRs were pushed far down. If you are at the end of the 1st Round and can't trade the pick out for 2023 first directly, there were still some good players to choose from. The below list is the higher-drafted WRs and TEs from the rookie drafts and where they went:
| 12-team S/F TE Prem - PPR (WR & TE ADPs) | ||||||||
| Pos | Player | Avg ADP |
SF #105 |
SF #292 |
SF #306 |
SF #320 |
SF #384 |
SF #483 |
| WR | Drake London | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| WR | Treylon Burks | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | 1.05 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| WR | Chris Olave | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.09 | 1.06 | 1.1 | 1.09 | 1.08 |
| WR | Skyy Moore | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 2.01 | 1.09 |
| WR | George Pickens | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.1 | 1.09 | 2.06 | 2.02 | 1.11 |
| WR | Christian Watson | 1.12 | 1.1 | 2.01 | 2.03 | 2.01 | 1.08 | 2.01 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | 2.03 | 2.04 | 1.12 | 2.02 | 2.03 | 2.04 | 2.07 |
| WR | John Metchie | 2.12 | 2.08 | 3.02 | 3.03 | 3.08 | 2.05 | 2.11 |
| WR | David Bell | 3.01 | 3.04 | 3.04 | 3.01 | 2.12 | 2.09 | 2.09 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | 3.04 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.04 | 3.03 | 2.08 | 3.04 |
| WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | 3.04 | 2.12 | 3.1 | 2.07 | 3.01 | 3.12 | 3.03 |
| WR | Jalen Tolbert | 3.11 | 3.08 | 4.07 | 3.07 | 3.09 | 3.04 | 4.04 |
| TE | Trey McBride | 2.11 | 2.09 | 2.06 | 2.11 | 3.02 | 3.01 | 3.02 |
As you can see the WR class was loaded, with plenty of good players falling deep into round two. Skyy Moore was one player who saw a large bump in ADP after landing in Kansas City and has the chance to be Patrick Mahomes favorite shiny new toy.
George Pickens is a young, ultra-talented player who lands with a solid organization in the Steelers. His rookie season may not live up to the hype with a rookie quarterback potentially starting and Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool currently ahead of him on the depth chart. Should Johnson not be re-signed after 2022, it could be wheels up for Pickens.
David Bell landed in a solid spot in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper as the only established pass-catcher on the roster. The Browns are limited in cap space and don't have a 2023 first as well as a 2024 first and third due to the Watson trade, so they really need Bell to succeed and should give him every opportunity to do so.
Jahan Dotson is another player flying under the radar as a high draft pick in the NFL Draft. He does have Terry McLaurin ahead of him on the depth chart, but Scary Terry is a free agent after the 2022 season. Should he depart, Dotson likely becomes the WR1 for that offense easily.
Trey McBride landed in Arizona where he is attached to Kyler Murray for the foreseeable future. He has an excellent mentor in Zach Ertz who will likely show him the ropes to becoming a dynamic tight end. Tight ends typically take a few years to fully develop at the NFL level, but McBride is a fabulous pass catcher and route runner with the potential to be a high-end TE1 for years to come.
What To Do With The 1.01 Pick in Dynasty Rookie Drafts
New Jets Running Back, Breece Hall is in a tier of his own. While there are concerns about him not seeing a high enough snap percentage with Carter there, his talent at a clear position of need is too good to ignore. If you have the 1.01, the only way it should be traded is if someone makes you an offer too good to refuse or your team needs such a drastic rebuild that it doesn't make sense to waste Hall's productive years on a bad team. The choice is easy at 1.01, take Hall or trade out of it, but be sure to get a haul for Hall. *Insert Dad joke*
Favorite Personal Dynasty Rookie Value Picks
- WR Wan'Dale Robinson (83% share)
- RB James Cook (66% share)
- QB Kenny Pickett (66% share)
- WR David Bell (50% share)
- WR Garrett Wilson (33% share)
- WR George Pickens (33% share)
- QB Desmond Ridder (33% share)
While the WR room with the Giants will take some time to sort out, Robinson is an elite playmaker with the ball in his hands and he plays bigger down the field. His value in the third round of some drafts is too good to ignore. A converted RB, he played WR last year after transferring to Kentucky while putting up 104 receptions for 1,334 yards and seven TD against the SEC.
James Cook, the brother of Dalvin, finds himself in a good situation in Buffalo and was a great value in the second round. While he profiles primarily as a pass-catching specialist, he is a good running back with only Devin Singletary threatening him for carries. While there are questions about him being a true three-down back, the value felt too good to pass up. Warren Buffett was fond of saying "Diversification as practiced generally makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they're doing, it is a protection against ignorance."
Conclusion
The most important thing is to feel good about the players you are picking. While you don't necessarily want to reach, there is nothing wrong with grabbing your guy and feeling good about having them on your roster even if it was a few picks ahead of consensus. Unlike redraft, your dynasty roster is forever.
While you also don't want to hold up your draft, there is also no harm in waiting on the clock for a bit to see if any trade offers come in. You might be surprised. Ultimately it's your team and your decision. At the end of the day it's all about what you feel good about doing.
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