DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play Golf Advice (2023)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard -World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Match Play

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

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Field

Field Size: 64 Players
Cut: Match Play (Group Cuts)
Top 25 Entrants:

Last Five Winners Of TPC Sawgrass

Expected Cut-Line

Austin Country Club

7,182 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded With Poa/Bent

It will be challenging to find objective information for this week's WGC, as the strokes gained metrics are virtually nonexistent at Austin Country Club. That can make models and things of that nature challenging to glean much from for this wonky event, but I did try my best to go as in-depth as possible when constructing my 'Rankings Wizard' tool in the link above. There you will be able to find all match play numbers for the field at this specific event, including the usual sortable data that you have become accustomed to using over the past few years on my model.

Instead of discussing the course's exact specifics, I would rather talk about game theory on DraftKings since this is one of the most volatile tournaments of the year. Many DFS users have a poor habit of eliminating their chances of winning from the very start by picking golfers in the same quadrant, and I can't stress enough the importance of selecting a lineup that provides the entire group with an opportunity to meet in the elite eight. From there, we want to create a pathway to get four of those into the final four. While that task will be anything but simple to execute, I wouldn't be afraid to leave some dollars on the table in your construction -- perhaps a lot since it is an easy way to diversify your builds and account for the erratic nature of the event.

There are 110 bunkers at the property and five water hazards. Players who can play strategic, situational golf should be at an advantage, and I believe mental fortitude and quality putting should also be looked into when making decisions this week in Texas. I've noticed in the past that handicapping this tournament is made most effortless when you take this one group at a time, so try to start from the top and slowly work your way through a bracket. You might be surprised at some ideas you form when you pencil in names round-by-round.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model. (You can see only the 2023 season when you make a copy).

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (15%)

Weighted Par Three (7.5%)

Weighted Par Four (15%)

Weighted Par Five (12.5%)

Birdie + Bogey Avoidance (10%)

Weighted Putting 5-15 Feet (10%)

Expected Approach + Expected Putt (10%)

Total Driving + Short Iron Prox (10%)

Weighted GIR Match Play (10%)

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

Group 1

Strength - 7th Hardest 

Scottie Scheffler - I have yet to incorporate ownership into the mix, but we should be in a decent spot to still consider Scottie Scheffler when all factors are taken into account. It is important to note that the entire left side of the bracket is about 14% stronger than the right, making all options bigger questions than we might have when dealing with factors elsewhere. The American is the projected favorite to escape one of the trickier pods of this section. Still, the level of aggression will come down to how comfortable you feel about his chances. My numbers seem to think Scheffler's only the ninth-most likely golfer to get out of his group of the 64 players in the field. 

Davis Riley - The math may have gotten a little carried away here. Davis Riley's third-place rank from 10-15 feet helped to propel him from the 47th-ranked putter in this field to 22nd in the critical make range from 5-15 feet when adding in all components. If that percentages hold, it is inconceivable that the 26-year-old could pull a massive upset.

Tom Kim - At the very least, Tom Kim can potentially spoil Scheffler's chances. I am generally fine keeping Scheffler, Kim and Riley inside player pools as options before making more cuts, and the methodical returns can prove beneficial if chaos does ensue in group one.

Alex Noren - Noren is the prototypical veteran golfer that tends to excel in this competition. I always tend to believe what we have seen from both he and Kisner may be more luck-driven than something else, but the success places each inside the top five win percentage candidates in this field. All of that is great, it is a nice way to say I am completely out.

My Models Rank

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Davis Riley (Very sneaky contrarian leverage in brackets or DFS. My pick in brackets)
3. Tom Kim
4. Alex Noren

Group 16

Strength - 6th Hardest 

Sungjae Im -Safe, steady and solid. Those are the three S's for Sungjae that will hopefully account for a significant result. The group will not be easy when we look at the stable expectations for Tommy Fleetwood and Maverick McNealy, but the game-changing breakthrough for Im is possible.

Maverick McNealy - Maverick McNealy's 2-0-1 outcome last season is as impressive as it gets for a golfer to provide and not make the single-eliminate stage. The putter from 5-15 feet and the expected GIR for this course generates more optimism, but it is hard for my model to place him above Sungjae or Fleetwood. The leverage should be significant, but I will likely be more inclined to play one of the other two.

Tommy Fleetwood - A potential letdown for Tommy Fleetwood after another close call that couldn't get across the finish line? I don't know if I would go that far, but the math does prefer Im when directly comparing each of the four choices.

J.T. Poston -If I were in J.T. Poston's group, I don't know if I would ever give him a putt after what we saw on Sunday at the Valspar. Similarly to the answer I shared for Alex Noren, I am out and will make Poston beat me.

My Models Rank

1. Sungjae Im (My bracket pick)
2. Tommy Fleetwood
3. Maverick McNealy
4. J.T. Poston

Group 8

Strength - 1st Hardest 

Viktor Hovland - Upsets are more likely to occur when the group is extremely challenging or overly easy. Just think of Richard Bland getting through the most straightforward section last year because of the lack of intrigue in other options. With that being said, we have the opposite end of the spectrum here, with Hovland taking on the most challenging group of the bracket since all four names are ranked inside the top 35. This might be one of those spots where if he survives the group, he has the potential to go far, but that answer worries me some for DFS. Some of the back-end portions of my model prefer Kim or Kuchar to be the spoiler if it occurs. 

Si Woo Kim - I will take my chances in DFS by getting aggressive with Si Woo Kim. The South Korean ranked third in weighted par-three scoring, eighth in par-four output and fourth in total driving mixed with short iron proximity. It wouldn't shock me if Kim found himself deep in this bracket. It also wouldn't surprise me if he finished last in his group. That's the dilemma.

Matt Kuchar - This feels like one of your classic Matt Kuchar spoiler spots. The American generated a handful of high-end returns that he will look to incorporate against three quality opponents. You can find reasons to fade Hovland's upside with Kim or Kuchar depending on where ownership lands.

Chris Kirk -Throw Chris Kirk in Will Zalatoris' bracket and watch how things might change. The draw is brutal, even if the profile is moderately intriguing for Austin.

My Models Rank

1. Viktor Hovland (My bracket pick)
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Matt Kuchar
4. Chris Kirk

Group 9

Strength - 5th Hardest 

Collin Morikawa - When we get put into these positions where there isn't much separation between the top few names, I always prefer full-fading the perceived star of the group. Morikawa's profile is acceptable, but Day and Svensson will generate much better leverage in any game type.

Jason Day - Day is probably the natural pivot, but there is something to be said about Svensson's skillset matchup against the rest of the pod.

Adam Svensson - Svensson will go as far as his weighted approach + putting will take him. If he gets hot with those two facets, the Canadian has the intangibles needed to make a run.

Victor Perez - I don't have enough data to provide a massive view one way or another. While I don't think Perez escapes the group, I will not talk anyone out of it. The four golfers are extremely close in quality. I'd pick one of the three not named Morikawa and hope to create leverage.

My Models Rank

1. Adam Svensson (My bracket pick)
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Jason Day
4. Victor Perez

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Group 5

Strength - 4th Hardest 

Max Homa - Homa's return of ranking top 13 in all nine categories did not go unnoticed. That safety is something that can win him this event.

Justin Suh - I love Justin Suh's potential pedigree for this contest. Will it happen this year? I am not sure. But he is a legitimate threat to Homa's advancement.

Kevin Kisner - I don't exactly know what I am quitting if it happens, but if Kevin Kisner advances out of this group, I quit something. I remain firm that Kisner's 'match play' pedigree is more luck than anything else. Add that to bad form, and he feels like one of the weaker options in this field that is being propelled by recognition of what he has done in the past.

Hideki Matsuyama - We finally saw some variation of old Hideki at the Players Championship. Is that enough to warrant consideration here? I'd have preferred a different group.

My Models Rank

1. Max Homa (My bracket pick)
2. Justin Suh
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Kevin Kisner

Group 12

Strength - 10th Hardest 

Jordan Spieth - You would have to imagine there is some residual effect that takes place for Jordan Spieth after his near-miss at last week's Valspar Championship. My model does believe Spieth is the slight favorite to get out of this group, but the combination of his price in DFS and on the betting board will have me fading in all game types.

Shane Lowry - If I am fading Spieth, it comes down to who I prefer doing it with this week. Lowry possesses one of the best total driving and short iron proximity combinations of this field and is playable if the ownership shrinks because of options around him. We will dive more into that later today.

Taylor Montgomery - My intrigue around Taylor Montgomery comes down to a flat stick that can be a real separator in group 12. The former UNLV product is the only player in his pod that graded top 35 in expected putt percentage from 5-15 feet. That is a surprising answer since two golfers (Jordan Spieth and Mackenzie Hughes) are known to gain with that portion of their games when they get hot.

Mackenzie Hughes - Anything can happen in match play golf, but I will be out on Mackenzie Hughes. The other three names have too much win equity for me to back the Canadian.

My Models Rank

1. Jordan Spieth
2. Taylor Montgomery (My bracket pick)
3. Shane Lowry
4. Mackenzie Hughes

Group 13

Strength - 8th Hardest 

Sam Burns - The bottom-four quadrant here of Homa, Burns, Cantlay and Spieth is arguably the most challenging path since the second-tiered players are real threats to make noise if they advance. I'd argue we have similar top-end strength when looking at Rahm, Young and Finau on the right, but as we know, anything can happen to alter a bracket. Burns isn't immune to a slip-up in a group with intangibles to challenge him, but the upside is there to win this event if he can get hot.

Adam Hadwin - Hadwin's ability to score on these par-three holes could give him an advantage four times a day against Seamus Power and Adam Scott. The edge shrinks against someone like Sam Burns, but there is enough to like in the skillset for him to pull a minor upset.

Seamus Power - I would prefer to take a shot at Adam Hadwin (unless we get a massive ownership discount).

Adam Scott - I believe the price on Adam Scott is too high for his chances of escaping group 13.

My Models Rank

1. Sam Burns (My bracket pick)
2. Adam Hadwin
3. Seamus Power
4. Adam Scott

Group 4

Strength - 9th Hardest 

Patrick Cantlay - Cantlay ranks first in birdie or better percentage + bogey avoidance and first in expected GIR percentage for this specific event. If he doesn't advance, it will be a mini-upset since he is the fifth-most likely name to get into the Sweet 16 of any golfer in this field.

Brian Harman - My boy Brian Harman. The pain he has caused me these past few weeks. Harman is a phenomenal match-play golfer who probably has top-half equity to advance out of the 64 players, but it will have to come against two quality options in Patrick Cantlay and K.H. Lee.

K.H. Lee - I don't know if a golfer can advance from only being "safe" across the board, but there is something to be said about his steady profile that can win some matches because of that constant pressure he should be able to apply.

Nick Taylor - I don't have any interest in Nick Taylor.

My Models Rank

1. Patrick Cantlay (My bracket pick)
2. K.H. Lee (Intriguing leverage)
3. Brian Harman
4. Nick Taylor

Group 2

Strength - 3rd Hardest 

Keith Mitchell - The weighted GIR percentage for Keith Mitchell ranks second in this field. It will take a Herculean effort to slay the beast that is Jon Rahm, but he might be able to get that help if Horschel/Fowler can chisel away over their matchups.

Billy Horschel - I view Horschel more as a potential spoiler than someone who advances.

Rickie Fowler - If I were to take a name that isn't Jon Rahm, it would be Keith Mitchell. Fowler will get left on the sidelines for that reason.

Jon Rahm - You don't have to look further than the pricing on all four golfers to realize this group did not make life easy on Jon Rahm. Mitchell is likely my favorite to get out of this pod if Rahm isn't the ultimate winner, but I will be using some combination of Rahm and Mitchell for various contests.

My Models Rank

1. Jon Rahm (My bracket pick)
2. Keith Mitchell
3. Rickie Fowler
4. Billy Horschel

Group 15

Strength - 11th Hardest 

Cameron Young - The switch to caddie Paul Tesori has given Young more popularity than I was hoping, but there is a chance that this right side of the bracket will be greatly reduced as these rounds advance. Young draws a below-average group here to start, and while he will have difficulty with any option that gets through Rahm's pack, all non-Finau pods have the possibility for chaos.

Sepp Straka - If you don't believe in Cameron Young, I would take a shot with Sepp Straka. There is a lot to like about his fit for this course.

Corey Conners - Can lightning strike twice with Corey Conners? My model believes he is the second favorite to advance and the worst leverage play of the four.

Davis Thompson - The approach play has gone south for one of my favorite young golfers, Davis Thompson. It isn't inconceivable that his par-five scoring acumen can spring an upset or two, but my numbers do believe he is the least likely name to advance.

My Models Rank

1. Cameron Young (My bracket pick)
2. Corey Conners
3. Sepp Straka
4. Davis Thompson

Group 10

Strength - 13th Hardest 

Tony Finau - I don't know if this group is as easy as the numbers appear on the overall rank section. Sure, we see some of that come into effect with them ranking better than three sections, but it is worth noting some of that has to do with Finau's strength. The American has yet to advance out of his group, but this should be the best chance he has had to date.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Bezuidenhout has not been great at this event historically. Can the putter change that in 2023?

Adrian Meronk - Regardless of what my numbers say, Meronk's putter can be a game-changer for him to spring a surprising advancement.

Kurt Kitayama - It is a wide-open group if Finau doesn't win.

My Models Rank

1. Tony Finau (My bracket pick)
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
3. Kurt Kitayama
4. Adrian Meronk

Group 7

Strength - 15th Hardest 

Will Zalatoris - There's a real problem for Zalatoris and the flat stick. I realize he will be given some of those putts from within five feet, but he ranks better than only one player in this field when it comes to putting from 5-15 feet. I think someone springs a small upset and takes him out.

Andrew Putnam - Don't be shocked if/when Putnam gets out of this group. The path between the four are all close, but there is an opening for someone if we believe Zalatoris is overrated.

Harris English - The putting + approach profile is intriguing if you believe English is back to his old form.

Ryan Fox - This is one of those spots where my model won't have the proper data to give Ryan Fox a fair shot. In reality, I am fine with any of the three names (not Zalatoris) because of how weak this group seems to be on the surface.

My Models Rank

1. Andrew Putnam (My bracket pick)
2. Will Zalatoris
3. Harris English
4. Ryan Fox

Group 6

Strength - 2nd Hardest 

Xander Schauffele - If we take the bottom four sections here, outside of the strength we get with this group, I believe we have arguably the weakest section to maneuver through for whoever does advance. I will be moving the winner of this section into the final four, but the question becomes which of these names is worth taking a shot on in Austin? Xander is fine, but I have my eyes elsewhere.

Tom Hoge - Tom Hoge is my Corey Conners this year. The metrics are there for him to make a legit run.

Aaron Wise - There's a lot to like with Wise's nine statistical metrics. The recent tee-to-green is alarming, but I would have called Wise the best value in this draft two months ago.

Cameron Davis - 

Similar to Aaron Wise, it will come down to if Cameron Davis is back. Health concerns seem to be behind him after a sixth at the PLAYERS.

My Models Rank

1. Tom Hoge (My bracket pick)
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Aaron Wise
4. Cameron Davis

Group 11

Strength - 16th Hardest 

Matthew Fitzpatrick - I'd rather make Fitzpatrick beat me. Even if he advances, I don't necessarily fancy his chances against the other Sweet 16 participant.

J.J. Spaun - Spaun was my most likely golfer to advance. He is likely the only one with real leverage to attack in GPP contests. Outside of him, I am going to be overweight to section six above (we can't play lineups that use both of these groups).

Min Woo Lee - Wild chaos

Sahith Theegala - Wild chaos

My Models Rank

1. J.J. Spaun (My bracket pick)
2. Matthew Fitzpatrick
3. Sahith Theegala
4. Min Woo Lee

Group 14

Strength - 14th Hardest 

Tyrrell Hatton - Hatton drew the optimal draw to reward most of the pre-tournament bets that had grabbed him at 40/1.

Russell Henley - Outside of last year's debacle, Henley had never lost a match play match before the 18th hole. He is due for some positive regression.

Ben Griffin - The leverage is intriguing for a group that I am not automatically penciling in Hatton.

Lucas Herbert - I would rather be different with Henley or Griffin.

My Models Rank

1. Tyrrell Hatton
2. Russell Henley (My bracket pick)
3. Ben Griffin
4. Lucas Herbert

Group 3

Strength - 12th Hardest 

Rory McIlroy - If you believe the equipment change will help his current shaky floor, the group is not overly difficult.

Denny McCarthy - McCarthy has the one differentiating quality in his putter that the other three can't match.

Keegan Bradley - 

I tend to trust Bradley's ball-striking over the question marks elsewhere in this group.

Scott Stallings - 

While the group is easier than most, I don't necessarily want exposure to Stallings. He might be more likely to advance than some longshot wagers, but I'd rather take my shots with a Bradley or McCarthy.

My Models Rank

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Keegan Bradley (My bracket pick)
3. Denny MccCarthy
4. Scott Stallings

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