DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches With Rory McIlroy, Stephan Jaeger, Christiaan Bezidenhout and More Golf Advice (2024)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

• $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!

Field

Field Size: 144
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 3

Last Five Winners Of The Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches

Expected Cut-Line 

PGA National

7,145 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

The one thing that must be noted about PGA National (and any course inside the Florida swing yearly) is that water will be the undoing for many golfers in the field. It only takes a few poor shots to find yourself outside the cutline when things begin to spiral -- evidenced by 15 holes presenting a combination of 26 sinkable hazards.

A factor like that is exceptionally notable when comparing courses since an errant attempt at the Genesis Invitational still created the ability to scramble out of the rough to salvage your score. However, all that goes out the window at the Cognizant Classic because a wandering drive or approach will provide the dreaded water-bound answer on the hard-to-follow PGA App.

While the 'Bear Trap' holes of 15, 16, and 17 will garner most of the headlines for the difficulty they present, holes five, six, and seven are almost equally as challenging for the field. The amplified hazards and 107 sand traps are put into place throughout the forum to cause havoc, and golfers can begin to feel trapped by the unforgiving landmines that pop up at all turns.

Wind will be the primary decider for just how challenging the test will be for the players this week. We have seen the track land inside the top 10 of difficulty 14 of the past 17 seasons. That being said, the track will play marginally easier this week since the challenging 508-yard 10th has now been converted into an additional par-five while only adding a little over 20 yards to the setup. We see that shift on the scorecard moving to a Par 71 versus a Par 70.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained Total (30%)

Strokes Gained Total - Wind (10%)

Strokes Gained Total - Bermuda (10%)

Weighted Strokes Gained Total - Hard Courses (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Bogey Avoidance + Sand Save (10%)

Ball Striking (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

We can add ownership back into the mix to help make decisions on Wednesday, but let's look into this board as if ownership didn't exist on Monday afternoon.

There are a lot of individual portions of profiles to like in this section, including Cameron Young's top-ranked ball-striking rank for PGA National or the exceptional par-four outlook from Russell Henley. However, it is hard for me not to look at this section and see a high-end profile from Rory McIlroy that may be marginally under-owned because of his spotty form.

McIrloy's price could be a benefit for us if gamers start believing $12,200 is too expensive for the lack of productivity in 2024, especially since the entire output from the Irishman is generating top-10 returns. I will continue to bet on the upside of the best player in this contest.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

There is going to be a decent amount of ownership that lands in this section. Names like Eric Cole and Byeong Hun An will be popular. I am going to use this Monday article to draw a line in the sand and essentially eliminate half this range early in the week while keeping the other half in the mix.

Eric Cole, J.T. Poston, Min Woo Lee, Byeong Hun An, Daniel Berger and Corey Conners would be the top options for me to consider when making early builds.

Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk, Shane Lowry and Keith Mitchell would be the fades

For me, it will likely come from eliminating all $10,000+ options not named Rory McIlroy to help be a little more aggressive in this tier.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

I am going to talk outright betting for a second, but I thought Stephan Jaeger was a highly enticing name to consider here at 40/1. We have gotten a little lost in his lack of upside after Jaeger won six times on the Korn Ferry Tour between 2016 and 2021. Some of the PGA success has been limited until recently, but it is hard to find a golfer in this field who is going to provide a better mixture of floor and upside. His 22 consecutive made cuts will blend well with his two top-three finishes over the last three starts. It might finally be time for Jaeger to win on the PGA Tour. The ball-striking is certainly there if his putter is starting to heat up.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Christiaan Bezudienhout, Mark Hubbard, Ryo Hisatsune, Adam Svensson, Doug Ghim and Adam Schenk would be my six favorite targets in the $7,000 range. That is a very basic return when you look at my rankings above.

Bezuidenhout has gained between 1.3 to 4.7 shots with his irons over his past four starts. I realize that the driver will have to improve after dropping strokes to the field over his last eight tournaments, but there is something to be said about a shorter venue that enhances his weighted proximity and putting on Bermuda. Will finding the fairway be enough? That remains to be seen, but the hope is that his average accuracy can get carried by the more critical approach and putting metrics. 

$6,000 Options To Consider

Chan Kim, Chesson Hadley, Austin Eckroat, Brandon Wu.

We will dive into this section more later in the week.

$5,000 Options To Consider

The 10+ playable commodities for me in this range would be the following names above. We will let ownership and sharp movement in the betting market dictate some of these final calls. My early lean would be that Andrew Novak is one of the best values on the board after back-to-back top-eight finishes.

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks