RADIO
With this industry exploding, especially on the golf side of the equation, the ability to separate our research process from the masses will be more critical than ever. Outside-of-the-box narratives and unique handicapping outlooks will be needed if we want to continue the upward trajectory involving our bankrolls, but it doesn't mean we need to veer so far off course that the brunt of what made us successful in the first place gets replaced altogether.
Remember, golf is a sport that provides nearly 52 weeks of action throughout a season, and the daily aspect of in-tournament DFS contests or wagers will only amplify the notion of this being a marathon and not some 100-meter dash that places us against a vintage version of Usain Bolt. It is essential to recognize most gamers in the space will come and go as additional sports enter and exit the market, and the predilection that we work harder than the next person is where the long-term edge entirely comes to fruition.
Let's try to keep all of that in mind as the ebbs and flows of the daily grind sometimes won't present the bountiful returns that we feel like we may have been justified with from our effort level, and instead accept the variance of the sport and know that our proclivity for distinction from others will eventually amount to the financial growth we are all trying to accomplish when it comes to DFS golf. Good luck this season to everyone that invests their time and effort in the space, and let's have another successful year that culminates in bankroll growth.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sentry Tournament of Champions
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- Sentry TOC Link
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
- Units: +311.229 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2023
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament - all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader Article
- Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
Premium Discord Access
- Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.
- $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.
Kapalua Plantation Course
7,596 Yards - Par 73 - Greens: Bermuda
The Kapalua Plantation course was designed in 1991 by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore but underwent a minor restoration a few years back to increase the difficulty. Unfortunately, those deviations have yet to enrich the challenge when we look directly at scoring rates over the past few years, as 36 of 40 players finished 10-under par or better last season — highlighted by a winning score of 34-under (Cameron Smith) and three total golfers eclipsing the 30-under mark.
In theory, scoring shootouts convolute the handicapping process and enhance hidden variables since more players tend to come into play when the course softens, but that answer doesn't necessarily encapsulate an event like the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Sure, the rudimentary form of that explanation should indicate the expectation around each player creates this buffer of ease, but we are no longer talking about an older iteration of this event that only allows past champions who qualified — something that has presented us with a much more dynamic field of participants over the past few years since the high-end options get their choice of making the trip to Kapalua if they want to start their season off in style.
Slow Bermuda greens and wide-open fairways are pronounced from the second you step on the grounds, and the 13 percent increase in GIR percentage and driving accuracy should point us in the direction of the track being nothing more than a birdie shootout. That doesn't imply that the proficiency to highlight a vast array of statistical qualifiers won't still be of the utmost importance, which we will get to in a second, but we are looking at a venue that rewards three main characteristics.
- Can your golfer provide scoring chances from both short and long proximity ranges?
- How will your player handle a velcro-like green complex?
- Let's find the golfer that can best incorporate those two factors and take advantage of those outputs by creating birdies and eagles, primarily on the must-have par-fives.
The name in this field who can produce those three elements better than the rest will be the one who walks out of Hawaii with the first title of the year, so let's narrow this player pool down even further than we already have it to begin the 2023 season.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Kapalua | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 290 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 74% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 78% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.74 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
Let's quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Proximity (20%) - We get this unique distribution of proximity totals that will generate over a six percent enhancement for iron play under 100 yards and about a five percent inflation from over 200 yards versus your typical test on tour. Part of that answer stems from the unique allocation of hole yardages that place a long iron in hand on nearly all of the par-three and par-five setups, but it is mostly the removal of the par-four locations between 450-500 yards that will change the outlook for the week. We will get to the impact of that when we talk about how I weighed scoring for those holes in a second, but I took a recalculated approach that incorporated all anticipated ranges, which already pushed my research into the territory of extremely long or short iron play, and then added an extra 20% emphasis to that so I could further intensify the returns for course-specific expectations.
Weighted Off-The-Tee (10%) - I used a unique mixture of 50% strokes gained off the tee at all courses and a 50% good drive percentage on only the easiest-to-hit fairways on tour to produce a new "total driving metric" before merging that total with a 30% addition of driving distance. That provided me with a list of golfers that could take advantage of this wide-open test and did so in a fashion that would reward the ability to get closer to the hole because of length.
Weighted Slow Bermuda (12.5%) - The green complexes are listed as "velcro," meaning the speed on these putts will be as slow as players experience all season. It is worth noting that putting isn't the only dynamic that comes into play when you get a slower surface since it also impacts approach metrics if balls are more likely to "stick" to the green once struck, and it is one of the reasons we experience a 6.6% increase on birdie putts made from 0-5 feet. Remember, a slower venue almost always rewards top-notch iron play, but it is still vital to add back in putting to the equation to normalize the mixture of statistical exposure.
Recalculated Par-Four Ranges (12.5%) - As I alluded to a second ago, removing all the par-fours between 450-500 yards creates a proximity consolidation that helps to enhance the short and long iron distribution totals. Around 60% of our locations fall into this sector to create a projected range from either under 125 yards or over 200 yards, and proficiency in those respected areas will help to create an ample amount of scoring looks compared to the field.
Par-Five Birdie or Better (17.5%) - The adage that length doesn't produce a heightened predicament of trouble at the pro level is on full display when looking at these par-fives. Each of the four yields somewhere between a 45-to-65 percent birdie or better production output, including the 18th — a hole that measures 677 yards on the scorecard. Par-five savants will receive a massive boost, although it honestly comes down to the inability to score on these chances that will remove you from contention over anything else.
Weighted Scoring (17.5%) - When 36 of 40 players crack 10-under par or better during an event, I feel like that percolates the notion of attempting to pinpoint golfers that can score with the best of them. It is important that we don't get overly lost in the crux of that concept since not all courses are equal when it comes to birdie-making potential, but the split of 65% birdie or better when it comes to historically easy tracks and the 35% output that I used at any test that we have played on tour during the last year did give me an intriguing dispersion to look further into since we started to highlight golfers that would be more apt to produce at Kapalua.
Weighted Thee-Putt (10%) - Three-putt percentage has historically been amplified at Kapalua because of the slow texture of the grass. That doesn't mean we should be expecting players to implode with a flat stick in their hand since we are only dealing with a 0.19 stroke increase in three-putt percentage per round, but it is enough to warrant extra consideration in our models. Expect golfers to misjudge their speed in various ways throughout the week, and the range of the misses could stretch from the occasional short stroke that doesn't make it to the hole to the periodic overcorrection that sees the ball fly past its intended target.
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Early thoughts on the group:
Scottie Scheffler ($10,300) - Even though Scottie Scheffler produced a career year in 2022, it sure felt like the American left a few wins on the table. A tumultuous Sunday at the Tour Championship forfeited nearly 12 million dollars out of his bank account when he faltered down the stretch against Rory McIlroy — something that has occurred repeatedly for almost six months since his first major championship at the Masters in April. The 26-year-old has continued his ball-striking acumen by gaining 6.7 shots tee-to-green over his last 10 trackable starts, but the negative-1.63 strokes he has lost per event during that same timeframe with his flat stick has removed most of the win equity upside that we became accustomed to for a golfer that captured four titles on tour in less than two months. The hesitation around Scheffler's floor output has shifted him outside the top 10 in ownership to begin the week at his tournament-leading $10,300 price tag, but I am likely to jump back on board if things remain similar over the next few days. Scheffler has historically seen an 11-spot improvement compared to the field on slow Bermuda greens versus his baseline output elsewhere, suggesting if the putter experiences even the slightest bit of progress for the week, the upside potential comes back into play for the former number-one golfer in the world.
Jon Rahm ($10,000) - It is a mixed bag of returns for Jon Rahm, who has been stellar at the track over the past five years, generating five top-10 finishes during each iteration of the event, but the hodgepodge nature quickly starts to come into play when we dive into his statistical profile for the week. The seven-time PGA Tour winner ranks inside the top three in driving distance, GIR percentage, weighted scoring, scoring at accessible courses, performances on slow Bermuda and total driving, but it is the weighted three-putt percentage and short iron proximity totals that currently are providing me some reason for trepidation. Rahm's expected proximity from within 150 yards ranks him third-worst on my model from the 39 players teeing it up this week, and the only two options to grade lower happen to be golfers priced at $7,100 (Sepp Straka) and $6,100 (Ryan Brehm). None of that implies that the Spaniard is in danger of sputtering out of control during his first start of 2023, but when we are dealing with a top-two price tag and top-four ownership mark, any red flags are worth looking into since we can't play everyone at the top of the board.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
| Golfer | Rank |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1 |
| Jon Rahm | 2 |
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Early thoughts on the group:
Justin Thomas ($9,900) - Massive ownership surrounding Justin Thomas is always expected at a no-cut event, although our decision will likely come down more to him versus Xander Schauffele ($9,500) over a judgment of whether Thomas should be in play for us this week. I can't formulate a route where I would want to begin GPP builds with those two options since I expect it to be the most popular start we see created for lineups this week, but settling in and basing lineups around one of the two does seem like a realistic route to consider. I am more inclined to believe Thomas is the correct option in the $9,000 range because of his high-end returns in my model in various categories, including his second-place grade for par-five scoring and first-place mark for win equity, but there is always a chance that the potential stops being worth the squeeze if his ownership reaches a level of no return. I don't believe we are currently there, and I assume the intrigue around various possibilities in this range should keep things somewhat normalized, but let's keep an eye on everything as the week progresses before locking in a decision.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,700) - I can somewhat buy into Collin Morikawa ($9,400) as a contrarian pivot since he ranks first in my model for weighted proximity, but I believe we would be doing a disservice to Patrick Cantlay — a golfer that topped my list when I ran this from an overall sense. I do want to mention that part of the reason I am fading Tony Finau ($9,300) revolves around my propensity to want to drop down in salary to create leverage with Matthew Fitzpatrick, but it's the structural outlook for Cantlay that accentuates my belief that the optimal route for success will revolve around creating extra exposure to the American. Cantlay has provided two top-four finishes at this track during the past five years, and the first-place grade in my model for par-five scoring and total weighted scoring supplies us with the safest floor-versus-ceiling combination in the event.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,100) - My model is not one that typically loves Mathew Fitzpatrick, but if you are telling me that it believes we have a situation where he is accurately priced on DraftKings while generating the second-largest deviation on the slate between expected ownership and actual ownership, I am going to take a chance that Fitzpatrick's probable leverage can create an advantageous game theory route for us in Hawaii. In fairness, this decision can quickly change before Thursday if numbers begin to shift, but the Englishman ranks inside the top five for both par-four and par-five scoring, and while the proximity numbers will leave a ton to be desired, I believe gamers are marginally over-infatuated with that concept when we look at the ownership projection that currently places him outside the top 20 golfers in the field. Sure, it matters to an extent since missing greens will be a surefire way to get yourself into trouble, but the 78% GIR percentage naturally decreases the difficulty for everyone in the field, and his fourth-place rank when it comes to around the green production can clean up any potential misfires.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
| Golfer | Rank |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1 |
| Justin Thomas | 2 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 3 |
| Xander Schauffele | 4 |
| Collin Morikawa | 5 |
| Tony Finau | 6 |
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
Cameron Young ($8,800) - I am not in love with the $8,000 range, but it feels like Cameron Young has the best mixture of what we are looking for this week, especially if we discount Sungjae Im over the next few days because of his current ownership projection. That is a situation that is still being worked out as numbers enter the mix, but the upside versus safety combination that Young possesses does highlight him as a safer target than Will Zalatoris ($8,900) and Hideki Matsuyama ($8,100) because of their injury concerns, and the upside seeps through the page over names like Viktor Hovland ($8,500) and Brian Harman ($8,000). Young ranks second in this field for driving distance and strokes gained off the tee, and he is also inside the top four regarding proximity from within 100 yards.
Max Homa ($8,600), Sam Burns ($8,400) - My model believes Sam Burns and Max Homa were accurately priced on the slate at their respective going rates, meaning the extent of their usability shifts to our expectation level around just how popular the duo might be for the event. My numbers indicate that anything outside the top 15 owned players for the week will keep either option in play as a possibility for us to consider, which we currently see with Homa placing 18th and Burns ranking 19th. Each has historically struggled on slower Bermuda surfaces in their career, but the top 10 total that each possesses in weighted three-putt percentage does generate a higher return on their prospect level than may meet the eye. If directly comparing the two, there is a reasonable-sized gap where I would prefer using Homa over Burns because of his multiple categories of placing inside the top 10 — a route I plan on taking by rendering a player pool that features Sungjae Im, Cameron Young and Max Homa.
Sungjae Im ($8,300) - There are a few routes we can consider here with Sungjae Im. For starters, the South Korean is woefully underpriced, projecting as someone that should have been in the $9,000 range over the mid-to-low $8,000 section, but the practicality of selecting him will come at a cost. It isn't outlandish for us to assume Im has a reasonable shot to be the highest-owned golfer on the slate, so the final determination comes down to where we can create leverage in other locations and how overexposed we want to be this week if we do decide to place him in our player pool. As of right now, removing him entirely from our list is overly big-braining the situation — something I don't want to do — so let's consider him a name we will monitor over the following few days and then decide on later in the week. I still think deploying him at his reduction cost is the optimal route for success, but there are realistic passages present that could quickly detur that stance.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
| Golfer | Rank |
| Cameron Young | 1 |
| Max Homa | 2 |
| Sungjae Im | 3 |
| Sam Burns | 4 |
| Will Zalatoris | 5 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 6 |
| Jordan Spieth | 7 |
| Tom Kim | 8 |
| Viktor Hovland | 9 |
| Brian Harman | 10 |
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)
Adam Scott ($7,600) - When we talk about the viable path of working around Sungjae Im, it comes from either overexposing ourselves by moving up in salary to choices like Cameron Young or Max Homa or down the board to names like Adam Scott and Aaron Wise. I don't want that answer to get lost in translation to mean you can't use multiple of those selections together, including staying on Im and getting different elsewhere, but there might be more upside than meets the eye when we talk about Scott. The Australian ranks first in my model for weighted proximity when combining the expected distribution between under 100 yards and over 200 yards, and the fourth-place mark for weighted slow Bermuda only amplifies the inherent ceiling. The median output will be lower than some of the names we are considering around his range, but risks need to be taken in a no-cut tournament, and pivoting to the 42-year-old is one of those ways to get unique.
Aaron Wise ($7,400) - Aaron Wise has the best chance to be this year's Sam Burns — a golfer that generates multiple wins very quickly and rewrites his trajectory path on the PGA Tour. I am not sure a venue like Kapalua fully encompasses that potential since I would prefer to back him at a stringent test, but I will continue to trust my numbers and keep selecting Wise at these inferior price tags until the market corrects itself. Despite preferring him at a track where the winning score would be cut in half, Wise still manages to rank inside the top 10 in all critical scoring metrics, and the long iron proximity from over 200 yards places him sixth in the field. Sure, the end derivative comes down to if he can grade better than 37th out of 39 golfers when it comes to his proximity from within 100 yards, but profiles that aren't entirely clean are to be expected in the $7,000 range.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
| Golfer | Rank |
| Aaron Wise | 1 |
| Adam Scott | 2 |
| Corey Conners | 3 |
| Russell Henley | 4 |
| Seamus Power | 5 |
| Billy Horschel | 6 |
| Keegan Bradley | 7 |
| Sahith Theegala | 8 |
| K.H. Lee | 9 |
| Sepp Straka | 10 |
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Adam Svensson ($6,400) - Minor divergences are all it will take for players to swap around between being playable and fade-worthy in the $6,000s since my data doesn't notice a massive distinction between anyone in this range, but let's go off of the information we currently have on hand, which suggests Adam Svensson is the most intriguing selection for us to pinpoint because of his relative sustainability in all sectors of the market. The Canadian enters the week fresh off of winning his first title at the RSM Classic, albeit months ago, and there is something to be said about the confidence he could bring to the table after securing his PGA Tour card for two years. I've always thought Svensson was one of the better ball-strikers in the world, and removing any added pressure could let us receive his best quality moving forward.
J.J. Spaun ($6,300) - You aren't going to find many players rolling into the year with better form than J.J. Spaun down near the bottom of the board — evidenced by his four top-25 finishes during his last five starts. Spaun's lack of distance might work against him since the iron play isn't ideal, but we have seen increased results from him at courses that deliver what my model classifies as "easy weeks" in the past. While the extended break may have halted his surge, only Trey Mullinax ($6,200) and Tom Hoge ($6,500) have performed better over their past 24 rounds when comparing each golfer's baseline versus their short-term run, making the 32-year-old one of the better dart throws to consider.
Luke List ($6,200) - Very few players possess a game-changing metric when we drop this low on the board, but Luke List's driving ability might be able to outweigh his slippery form entering 2023. The winner of the Farmers Insurance Open has proven he can handle an extended test that stretches over 7,500 yards in the past, and I can find reasons to be optimistic when I dive into his putting on slower textures. As we all know, List is statistically one of the worst putters on tour, but his ascension up the board in anticipated performance on this surface does help him to surpass 34% of the players in this field with his flat stick. That is a stunning total for a player averaging negative-3.5 shots with his putter over his last 10 starts, but it should serve as an eyebrow-raiser that help could be on its way.
As of Monday:
Early Rankings For Group:
| Golfer | Rank |
| Adam Svensson | 1 |
| J.J. Spaun | 2 |
| Luke List | 3 |
| J.T. Poston | 4 |
| Trey Mullinax | 5 |
| Scott Stallings | 6 |
| Chad Ramey | 7 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 8 |
| Chez Reavie | 9 |
| Ryan Brehm | 10 |
Win More With RotoBaller
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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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