DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - Bermuda Championship - Birdie/Par/Bogey (2025)

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship (2025). His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups will be given with a twist.

We have all played some variation of this game over the years.

Fantasy football has embraced it with a whole website called Keep/Trade/Cut. Jobs have a workplace-themed version called Hire/Fire/Promote to decide the professional fate of three people. We even have the X-rated interpretation dubbed "Fuck/Marry/Kill, which might blur the lines for some, depending on the quality of your marriage. Hell, there is a reason G.K. Chesterton once quoted in his novel 'Manalive' that "marriage is a duel to the death."

However, no matter which rendition of the game you prefer playing in your free time, there is no arguing that it does a great job of segmenting and presenting three options in a very easy-to-distinguish format. I decided to take that appellation and branch it out into the world of DFS golf, hoping to help gamers narrow down three hard-to-choose options for the week.

Here are the rules:

Birdie - Implies the best pick of the three for DFS contests. 

Par - Implies that a player is worth playing but at a lesser rate than our "Birdie" selection. 

Bogey - Implies permanent removal from DFS consideration for the week.

I am going to go through all price points for the week and include the three highest-owned golfers in each range. The reason for that determination is that I want to have tough conversations about close calls that most DFS players are struggling to choose between for the event. Anyone can cherry-pick the clear-cut decisions. It is harder to take a concrete stance in each section, especially when we can't play everyone.

$10,000+ Section

Top-Three Projections:

Rico Hoey 22.27%
Thorbjorn Olesen 17.34%
Kevin Yu 14.90%

Birdie: Kevin Yu ($10,300)

There are only three total golfers in the $10,000+ range. I could make a strong argument that starting in the $9,000s is a very realistic path to creating the optimal lineup for the week. Nonetheless, the one thing Thorbjorn Olesen, Kevin Yu, and Rico Hoey have in common is that they are among the 10 most in-form golfers this fall. That alone is going to boost their ownership and create more playability than my model may deliver on the surface level of this answer.

My favorite of the three is Yu. There will be a lot of talk about his erratic past in the wind, a category in which he placed 97th out of 120 golfers. Still, I don't want that singular category to outweigh that his recent approach issues are likely stemming from courses that didn't quite suit his game and presented too many long-iron shots.

This week, Port Royal is a venue that delivers nearly 50% of your second shots from within 125 yards. That is an astonishing 30% uptick over what you might expect elsewhere. Yu ranked first in my model when re-projecting the yardages to fit this course, and his overall profile eclipsed the other two names in six of the seven statistical categories that I ran for the week. It doesn't hurt matters that his ownership is the lowest of the group.

Par: Thorbjorn Olesen ($10,100)

It is hard to find a more in-form golfer than Thorbjorn Olesen. Three top-14 finishes to begin the FedExCup Fall season should show the floor, but it might be his "Bogey Avoidance" marks that make me most optimistic about his ceiling.

Olesen placed next to Pierceson Coody as one of only two golfers (in this field) to post top-16 grades for both 'Birdie or Better' and 'Bogey Avoidance.' 

As I mentioned with Yu, winds are projected to reach 20+ MPH throughout the week. Personally, I didn't get Olesen to grade higher inside my model because some of the putting metrics on slower Bermuda left a lot to be desired. However, his built-in floor does likely make him one of the savvier cash-game plays on the slate.

Bogey: Rico Hoey ($10,400)

I am marginally afraid to fade Rico Hoey since my model isn't so low on him that this has become a must-avoid situation. Nevertheless, if the industry wants to try and turn this into a Ben Griffin outlook from last week, where Griffin won as the highest-priced golfer on the slate and found himself over 20% owned, I am fine looking in a different direction.

Hoey's putting is always going to leave you longing for what could have been if he had made a few extra putts throughout the week. In fairness, that could help him here if high winds make scoring harder. I have always said that when scoring gets more challenging, fewer putts need to go in the hole to win a tournament. That said, I found enough red flags within his par-four profile to drop him down this board.

My model ranked Hoey a disappointing 63rd out of 120 players for 'Projected Par-Four Scoring,' making him the only option of the three not to crack the top-25.

$9,000 Section

Top-Three Projections:

Nico Echavarria 17.58%
Patrick Rodgers 17.41%
Pierceson Coody 17.15%

Birdie: Pierceson Coody ($9,600)

When I ran my model this week with all the key categories, I was not expecting Pierceson Coody to rank as my top golfer on the slate.

Coody was a dominant force on the Korn Ferry Tour this season, ranking as the only golfer in the top 65 of their standings who played in 15 or fewer events during the year. That is even more impressive when you consider he finished 12th overall for the year.

We have seen that high-upside trajectory continue during the FedExCup Fall portion of the year on the PGA Tour, with Coody posting three top-35 finishes to start the year, including a close-call third-place outing in Utah. These fall events typically give us our first taste of the stars of tomorrow, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the American make a grand statement of his permanent arrival.

Par: Nico Echavarria ($9,700)

Back-to-back top-15 finishes for Nico Echavarria over the past month should be a welcoming sign for a golfer who only offered one result of that nature from February to September.

Echavarria's game is predicated on a flat stick that can catch fire with the best of them on tour. While the approach metrics might leave some money in the bank from these shorter ranges, his make percentage from a longer distance outweighed a lot of the golfers who had better iron play than him.

There is a reason Echavarria has been one of the sharper movers in the outright market. His shift from 30/1 to 20/1 at the high-end books is worth monitoring until tee times conclude on Thursday.

Bogey: Patrick Rodgers ($9,500)

This is the hardest section of any of the ones we are running through today. All three names had legit merit to land somewhere else, which is how you end up making a golfer with three consecutive top-nine finishes at this course your "Bogey" target.

There is no way around the fact that Patrick Rodgers has been brilliant at this course. That long-term performance return is always something that your average DFS gamer is going to target. Still, the bigger problem with fading Rodgers in this spot is that he is entering the week off a sixth-place finish during his last start at the World Wide Technology Championship.

I consider this a weak fade, at best, since he is checking most of the boxes, but there are only so many golfers you can play at 15%+ ownership when your numbers lean toward going all-in on Pierceson Coody and Nico Echavarria. Also, it is not as if Rodgers' long-term statistical profile doesn't have some cracks to it. My model ranked him 74th for 'Projected Approach + Putt,' which is a long-winded way of saying the golfer who will create the most birdie opportunities and make them on similar green complexes. 

$8,000 Section

Top-Three Projections:

Matt Kuchar 16.02%
Eric Cole 14.17%
Victor Perez 13.52%

Birdie: Victor Perez ($8,100)

I know I called the $9,000 group the hardest to pick between this week, but we have another three targets here who cracked the top 15 of some iteration of my model. You likely have more playability for all three if you can find distinctive ways to cut out a handful of the Rico Hoey or Patrick Rodgers types. Lineup construction is already very unique if you start in the $9,000s or pivot to Kevin Yu at sub-15%, but for the sake of this article, let's make some very tough calls.

There were four golfers in my model to rank in the top 40 across all seven statistical categories I weighed for the Bermuda Championship. Pierceson Coody and Nico Echavarria are two who have already been discussed. Mark Hubbard ($8,500) carries this confusing profile for me since he continues to grade well while imploding my lineups weekly. It has almost become an addiction to even consider him. The last would be Victor Perez, who is going to pop even further when you start looking at ball flights and players who can hit the ball lower within windy conditions.

Perez has three top-20 finishes on similar windy courses over the past year, and his top-six ranking inside my model made him one of the better DFS values on the slate.

Par: Matt Kuchar ($8,600)

Forty-seven-year-old Matt Kuchar, churning out another par to boost his career earnings well past $60,000,000, while potentially stiffing another caddie in the process.

We can continue to joke all we want about Kuchar's underpaying ways, but it doesn't take away from the fact that the veteran is playing some of the best golf we have seen from him over the last few seasons.

Credit is given where it is deserved, and the reality that Kuchar bypassed LIV millions to continue this dream on the PGA Tour is quite a strong indicator that should connect the dots to show that he still believes he can compete with the best in the world. If that is the case, this field doesn't exactly scream PGA superstardom. Perhaps Kuchar can turn back the clock for a victory this week.

Bogey: Eric Cole ($8,400)

The thing I hate most about this fade is that Port Royal looks every bit of a second-shot course that rewards putting. We know that Eric Cole's most significant detriment will always be his driver, which is neither long nor straight, although I do think this ends up being one of those situations where he either wins the event or implodes in spectacular fashion before the weekend.

We saw that implosion potential come to fruition in 2022 when he missed the cut at the venue, and it is not as if he is particularly clean from the par-five ranges. Sure, it must be noted that Cole's 70th-place grade did jump to 16th when siphoning in other key data points if you are looking for a reason to remain optimistic, but the bad is going to outweigh the good in this spot.

That boom-or-bust moniker only goes so far when it is accompanied by top-10 overall ownership projections out of everyone in the field. I typically prefer to play Cole when he is an under-the-radar commodity at a lower price, something that is neither of those answers for the Bermuda Championship.

$7,000 Section

Top-Three Projections:

Justin Lower 13.74%
Seamus Power 13.68%
Greyson Sigg 11.36%

Birdie: Seamus Power ($7,600)

I was fortunate to hit Seamus Power as an outright at this tournament in 2022.

While Power graded first in the field that week and carried a little better profile, it is not as if things are all bad during this iteration of the event.

You will see that Power was marginally stronger across the board in 2022 during his victory that season, but it is worth noting that the Irishman's $10,200 price tag in 2022 versus $7,600 this week accounts for all those factors. We will see if that is enough to capitalize on the talent that he has compared to the other names in this field.

Par: Greyson Sigg ($7,400)

Greyson Sigg graded as the ninth-best cash-game play overall and 15th in my model for overall production.

A lot of those metrics are going to be baked into betting placement markets. We see that already forming with his second-best course history profile among golfers who have played this course more than once (Justin Lower is first).

Objectively speaking, playing both Sigg and Lower for GPP contests misses the mark for a volatile tournament. People always have a bad habit of creating cash-game lineups for large-field contests. I'd rather use both for cash and pick one or the other for anything that has over 10,000 people entered. Funny enough, these three popular choices are your top players at this course for those who have played it more than once:

Bogey: Justin Lower ($7,300)

I can't imagine how a "Bogey" answer for Justin Lower won't be widely accepted by those reading this article, given that the 36-year-old looks like a lineup lock for everyone on my timeline...

Look, I do get it for a golfer with an immaculate course history and very promising recent returns. It is not that I even massively dislike him myself. It just comes down to the real decision-making dilemma that we have to cut players out of the pool at some point.

You can see that Lower is the short man on the totem pole after running the week's projections and comparing him to Power and Sigg. All three of those names carry a very similar profile. I just prefer taking my shots on the other two when Lower renders a negative "Ownership vs. Model Rank." In simpler terms, my model is much lower on him than the public, even though all three are valued commodities at their DraftKings price (Model vs. DK Difference).