RADIO
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It's great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! I mentioned in this article last week that the Week 9 DraftKings slate was shaping up to be a "down-and-dirty affair". Well...I didn't realize just how true that statement would ring, as Week 9 is certainly the leader in the clubhouse for "weirdest slate of the season" honors.
After the ugliness of last week, the Week 10 Main Slate appears to be much more straightforward (I'll never say "predictable" when talking about the NFL) thanks to several good offenses that are in good spots, as well as some clear value that is beginning to emerge as the week progresses, specifically at the RB position.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 10. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 10 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: In last week's QB section I wrote "...it's tough to envision (Josh) Allen truly failing." Well, we all know how that turned out, as Allen - and many of the top players on the Week 10 slate - greatly underperformed. As a result, a common theme at the QB position - and throughout this slate as a whole - is really good players looking to rebound from really poor performances.
Tom Brady - TB @ WAS ($7,600)
Tom Brady is one of the few players that didn't disappoint in Week 9, thanks to the Bucs getting a bye week. However, we have to imagine that the future Hall of Famer is still stewing about a surprising Week 8 loss to the New Orleans Saints. Well...this is the mother of all "get right" spots, as Brady is set to take on a Washington Football Team secondary that has struggled mightily throughout the year. WFT is allowing the most DK Points per game to the QB position in the NFL and - despite having only played eight games - they've relinquished the second-most passing TDs in the league (20).
This sets up as a true mismatch for Brady and a Tampa Bay offense that leads the league in situational-neutral pass rate (67%), leads the NFL in points per game (32.5) and comes in with the highest projected point total on the Week 10 Main Slate (30.5).
Carson Wentz - JAX @ IND ($5,900)
Jacksonville made my Josh Allen pick look pretty stupid last week when they held Allen and the Bills to just six points. At the risk of looking silly again, I'm willing to double down this week and target the Jags with Indy's Carson Wentz.
The inarguably turnover-prone Wentz definitely has his issues but has quietly thrown for two-or-more TDs in six straight games. He's coming off his cleanest performance of the year in a Week 9 Thursday night matchup against the Jets and - after nine days of rest - Week 10 might be the healthiest we've seen him all season. Who knows what cosmic forces came together for Jacksonville against Allen last week, but we have to believe it's nothing more than a flukey outlier, as the Jags rank dead last in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and have allowed a massive 8.37 yards per attempt to opposing QBs this season.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 10 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: Injuries have led to a couple of obvious value plays at the RB position, which opens up some interesting alternative paths in GPPs.
Dalvin Cook - MIN @ LAC ($8,000)
If you follow the NFL very closely then you probably know that there are some off-the-field issues brewing with Dalvin Cook this week. However, for the purposes of this article, we'll focus only on his ability on the field and operate under the assumption that Cook will play in this matchup against the Chargers.
Chargers HC Brandon Staley leans heavily on analytics and one of the byproducts of his new-age philosophy is a defense that is very content to let opposing teams run the ball at will between the 20s. As a result, L.A. ranks dead last in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA and yards allowed per carry. Enter Minnesota's Mike Zimmer, a man who is the antithesis of L.A.'s Staley. Zimmer - a coach that would love to run the ball every play anyway - will be extremely content to take what the Chargers' defense gives him on the ground this week. It's the perfect recipe for the explosive Cook to garner all the usage he can handle.
Najee Harris - DET @ PIT ($7,900)
Najee Harris might run for 9,000 yards this week against Detroit. Ok, so maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but this matchup is a thing of beauty. Pittsburgh's rookie volume monster will square off against a Lions defense that has given up 25 or more DK Points to opposing RBs in HALF of their eight games this season. Harris has received 22 or more carries in each of Pittsburgh's last four and leads the NFL in snap share at the RB position with a massive 86%. As if the Steelers needed an excuse to lean on Harris, they are dealing with a heavily depleted receiving corps and a dead-armed QB.
James Conner - CAR @ ARI ($6,300)
Pittsburgh castoff James Conner was already putting together a surprisingly-useful season despite being locked in a timeshare with Chase Edmonds in the Arizona Cardinals' backfield, but Conner went absolutely nuclear after Edmonds left Week 9’s contest against San Francisco early with an ankle injury. The 26-year-old played the part of a true three-down back for the Cards, getting work both on the ground and through the air. He amassed 177 total yards and three TDs on 26 touches. With Edmonds diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain and likely to miss multiple weeks, Conner now has a clear path to bell-cow usage for this explosive Arizona offense.
D'Ernest Johnson - CLE @ NE ($4,700)
Yes, D’Ernest Johnson will be the absolute mega chalk in Week 10 at just $4.7k, but it is with good reason. With both Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton on the COVID-19 list and highly questionable for Week 10, Johnson is set to be the feature back in this run-heavy Cleveland offense. The South Florida product looked explosive en route to an impressive 146 rushing yards and a score when pressed into a starting role against the Broncos in Week 7, which makes us confident that he’ll once again be a viable fantasy option in Chubb’s absence.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 10 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: As with the RB position, we can expect concentrated ownership at the WR position this week. It is the most volatile position in football and, as a result of that volatility, the position where I'm always willing to get contrarian.
A.J. Brown - NO @ TEN ($7,800)
At $7.9k, Green Bay's Davante Adams will be the most popular WR on the slate, which means anyone that gets up to this price point will be rostering Adams and paying very little attention to A.J. Brown at $7.8k. Brown has a DFS ceiling that can at least rival Adams but will garner just a fraction of the ownership, which translates to the type of leverage that can vault us to the top of GPPs.
In Tennessee's first full game without Derrick Henry last week, Brown was targeted 11 times against the Rams. He's now been thrown at 40 times over Tennessee's last four and has converted those opportunities into a combined 30 catches for 421 yards and two TDs. This week's matchup against the Saints isn't exactly one to fear. New Orleans' brick-wall defensive line funnels opposing offenses to the air, where the Saints secondary is relinquishing just over nine yards per target and has allowed five TDs to the WR position in their last two games.
Mike Evans - TB @ WAS ($6,900)
We've already touched on some of Washington's struggles with stopping the pass when discussing Tom Brady at the QB position, so it makes sense that we'd also have interest in a Tampa Bay pass catcher. We'll keep an eye on Chris Godwin's injury status throughout the week, but Mike Evans will be a viable DFS option no matter Godwin's availability (Obviously, Evans would shoot to the top of the WR position if Godwin is out). Evans comes into Week 10 boasting an aDOT of 17.17, a mark that ranks near the top of the NFL.
Jerry Jeudy - PHI @ DEN ($5,300)
It was Denver wideout Tim Patrick that emerged as the stat-line hero of the Broncos' shocking win over Dallas in Week 9. However, second-year WR, Jerry Jeudy, quietly posted some encouraging signs as he continues to work his way back from an extended absence. Jeudy garnered an eye-opening 30.8% target share in the Denver offense last week. The opportunity count should continue to be steady for the Alabama alum and his $5.3k tag makes him one of the better price-considered options on the slate.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 10 DFS Picks
Positional Overview: No Kelce, no Waller, no Kittle. The TE position is wide open this week!
Kyle Pitts - ATL @ DAL ($5,800)
The production has been erratic for the Atlanta rookie, but the usage - and subsequently, the upside - remains elite, which makes me willing to hop on Kyle Pitts here at $5.8k. He's garnering a massive 31.8% share of Atlanta's Air Yards this season, a mark that leads all tight ends. His aDOT of 12.50 is also positionally elite. While his production has taken a hit with Calvin Ridley off the field for Atlanta, the underlying usage indicates a breakout is coming, and it could well be against this Dallas defense that is allowing just over 8.5 yards per target to the TE position.
Pat Freiermuth - DET @ PIT ($3,900)
It’s always nice to find a silver lining in the dark cloud that is the TE position. Steelers rookie Pat Freiermuth has certainly been a bright spot for this Pittsburgh offense as of late. Injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster and Eric Ebron have led to increased opportunities for Freiermuth and he's averaging 6.7 targets per game over Pittsburgh's last three. With Chase Claypool now also looking extremely questionable for the Steelers, Freiermuth should continue to play a prominent role in this offense against a Lions defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per target to opposing TEs.
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