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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC 267: Błachowicz vs. Teixeira on 10/23/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Well, the moment has arrived. Jan Blachowicz, the only man to ever defeat Israel Adesanya in the world of MMA, is back to defend his LHW title now against a "proper" division foe. I don't buy the narrative, but most folks out there want to watch Jan doing it against a true LHW instead of a bulking-up fighter, so here's their much-anticipated bout. Oh, and did I mention we have a second title fight coming our way this weekend? Ah, my attention spans are getting smaller by the day...
So it will be all about Bantamweights prior to reaching the pinnacle of this Saturday's event. Petr Yan will be going against Cory Sandhagen for an interim chip, and that's great, but what is even better is that we will have a main card packed full of talent with the likes of Islam Makhachev, Dan Hooker, and Khamzat Chimaev (among others) featuring prior to those two main events. Get excited, because this well merits it.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC 267: Błachowicz vs. Teixeira on 10/30/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jan Blachowicz, $9000 - vs. Glover Teixeira
As ridiculous as it sounds, Glover already had his chance at this title... back in 2014! He faced Jon Jones back then, and being the unstoppable force of nature he was those days, Jones obviously won that fight and denied Teixeira the privilege of entering the UFC history books. Jan, on the other hand, found himself in the perfect position in September of 2020 when he faced--and demolished--then-reigning champ Dominick Reyes in which amounted to be 9:36 minutes of fighting time in which Jan dropped Dom with a KO. Blachowicz took on Adesanya last June and went the distance but retained the belt, becoming the lone winner of a fight against the Nigerian to date.
Seeing Teixeira reaching this sort of fight at this point in his career, having already a title fight more than seven years ago, is surely bonkers. Glover comes off winning his last five bouts spanning back to Jan. 2019 and he's done it in every possible way (one decision, one KO, three subs). Jan B is pretty much on the same winning path with five wins in a row since Jul. 2019 including three KOs and two decisions. For fantasy purposes, none of these two has a high floor because none of them throw massive volume the other way. Teixeira comes with some grappling upside, always good in fantasy terms, but Jan proved capable of it against Adesanya and has the higher KO-upside. Give me the champ retaining.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Petr Yan, $8800 - vs. Cory Sandhagen
Not the fight we were expecting, but a title (interim, I know) fight anyway. This bout should have pitted reigning-champ Aljamain Sterling against his latest foe Petr Yan, who got disqualified in that June affairs thus allowing Sterling to become the first-ever champ-by-DQ. Too bad for Sterling, he got banged up in late September and had to pass on this fight, opening the door to Cory Sandhagen and Yan to fight for the interim chip until he comes back eventually.
These two have been marvelous through their UFC careers, both having eight fights under the promo's banner. Yan had not lost a fight prior to that DQ, and Cory is a 6-2 fighter since he debuted in Jan. 2018. Yan can do it on striking and grappling while Sandhagen leans more on striking than anything else (0-of-2 in TDs through his last four getting back to Aug. 2019). That being said, though, Yan is the one without a submission victory to Sandhagen's one... although it is also true that one of Corey's defeats came via first-round submission to the very own Sterling. This looks like a Yan fight to lose, and he's also the better fantasy play given his high striking volume and grappling prowess.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dan Hooker, $6600 - vs. Islam Makhachev
See, these two are kinda similar fighters when it comes to their game, but there is a glaring difference between them: Islam has fought for a grand total of 104 minutes in 10 fights while Hooker has spent 180 inside Octagons around the nation in 17 fights. The averages are close on a per-fight level, but Hooker has fought almost double of bouts and in the past five he's gone the distance. Islam, on the other hand, has finished four of his last six opponents without reaching the final buzzer including two KOs and two subs.
That is precisely what gives us a headache here. While Islam has been pretty much unstoppable and comes boasting an eight-fight winning streak, but he has never topped 95 SSA nor landed more than 5 TDs in any single fight. Hooker, on the other hand, makes the most of his time inside the Octagon as he's attempted 150+ SSA in four of his last five (all of them decisions) while landing 8-of-22 takedowns in that span. Islam should get the W here, but Hooker should stay on his feet for a good chunk of the fight. A risky bet, but without an easy early finish on Islam's projection, I have to bet on Hooker to end with the higher DKFP tally.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexander Volkov, $8900 - vs. Marcin Tybura
If you get these two a quick glimpse, you'd undoubtedly go with Tybura this weekend. If you look under the hood, though, you might come up with a different opinion when it comes to lining up one of them. Volkov has gone 3-3 since the start of 2018 and has alternated Ws and Ls in all of those six outings (lost his latest fight back in June). Tybura, on the other hand, has won five straight (all of them from Feb. 2020 on) including two KOs in his two most-recent fights. So it has to be Tybura here, right?
Well, maybe not. Volkov has averaged 67 DKFP in his past six bouts compared to Tybura's 64.6 average in the same span. That's basically because Volkov is always throwing strikes the other way, and has broken the 150-SSA mark in both winning and losing bouts. He's just steady at racking up fantasy points no matter the outcome. Tybura hasn't been putrid, of course, but he often falls on the lower end of the spectrum. At the end of the day, Tybura has enough grappling game to make up for that lower volume of strikes, so it's reasonable to go with him given his higher winning probability this weekend and the fact that he should at least pull off a couple of takedowns to bump his DKFP score a bit.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Li Jingliang, $6700 - vs. Khamzat Chimaev
As good as Li Jingliang has been throughout his recent career (7-2 since the start of 2017), there is no fighter out there doing what Khamzat hash accomplished since debuting back in July 2020: three fights, three wins, two first-round KOs, one second-round submission. Say what!? That's Chimaev for you, folks, though he's also a man who has been out of the circuit since September of 2020--14 months in the cold, that is.
Li is probably the toughest opponent Chimaev would have faced come Saturday. Obviously, Khamzat's average DKFP is at an unreasonable 111.2 fantasy points per fight, which comes straight from the boom/bust play recipe. Jingliang is no slouch himself with a nice 76.8 average in his last six bouts. If you remove the bonus points from finishing foes early, Chimaev drops to 27.8 FPPG compared to Li's 41.8. I don't think Chimaev will earn an easy one-minute KO victory this weekend, so as risky as it is I'd bet on Li Jingliang getting the W--and if not, at least putting on more DKFP points than Chimaev.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Magomed Ankalaev, $9100 - vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Volkan Oezdemir was so fantastically great to kick his UFC tenure off that all he needed was three fights--decision, 28-second KO, 42-second KO--to earn himself a shot at Daniel Cormier's LHW belt on Jan. 2018. It would have been ridiculous for Oezdemir to get the W then and there, but he couldn't snatch it from Cormier's hands and went on to lose three straight. Ankalaev, on the other hand, debuted with a submission loss to Paul Craig in 2018 but he's never looked back after that fight.
Ankalaev is entering the Octagon Saturday on a ridiculous six-fight winning streak that includes four KOs, three in the past two calendar years. None of these two are going to rely heavily on takedowns, though Ankalaev's last fight saw him reach a 3-of-9 outcome in 15 minutes to earn a decision. Also, Oezdemir is coming off his worst fantasy fight since that Cormier defeat as he got KO'd by Jiri Prochazka in July 2020. Don't overthink this pick and go with the clear favorite in Magomed here.
