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After just one measly game yesterday, we get overloaded with a two-game slate on Monday, with the Astros and Rays kicking things off at 4:07 pm (EST) in San Diego, followed by Atlanta taking on the Dodgers in Arlington at 8:08 pm (EST).
Tonight we have four pitchers going who all have some warts but are all priced reasonably, which should make it easy to squeeze in a lot of the pricey bats you desire. And just in case you were wondering, Randy Arozarena is still going full videogame-mode on everyone. I think I speak for most of the St. Louis Cardinals fan base when I say that Matthew Liberatore better secretly be Blake Snell. Sigh.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 10/12/2020. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Lance McCullers Jr. - SP, HOU at Tampa Bay ($7,500)
Pitching is shaky but affordable on the two-game slate and I'd rather pick my poison against the relatively coldest offense. As long as McCullers can avoid giving up a home run to Randy Arozarena, the rest of the lineup has been ice cold. Tampa has only scored five runs total in their past three games (albeit with two wins) and finished 2020 with a ho-hum .319 wOBA and a 26.3% K% that was the third-highest in baseball. And the Rays can throw a pile of lefties in their lineup but McCullers has had more success vs LHB, with a .325 wOBA (.383 wOBA vs RHB) and a 28.4% K% (21.3% K% vs RHB).
Charlie Morton - SP, TB vs Houston Astros ($7,100)
Whether I like the pitching options, or not, DK makes you use two and there are only four options at starter. And while Morton has a big risk potential, seeing how explosive the Astros have been as of late, he's the cheapest option on the board and always has the potential to rack up a lot of strikeouts. Plus, given the quality of their bullpen (along with their general philosophy) the Rays are unlikely to let Uncle Charlie get in too much trouble before giving him the hook. And Morton was very effective in his last start, picking up the win over the Yankees after allowing one run over five innings, striking out six and scoring 21.6 points.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
Will Smith - C, LAD vs LHP Max Fried ($4,200)
Smith finally broke out of his playoff doldrums in Game 3 of the NLDS, going 5-for-6 with two doubles, after starting the playoffs hitless in his first four games of the postseason (15 PA). The Dodgers young catcher was fantastic against LHP in the regular season, posting a .426 wOBA and 18.8% BB%, with an 84.4% contact-rate and team-leading 52% FB%.
Freddie Freeman - 1B, ATL vs RHP Walker Buehler ($4,900)
The name on the opposing jersey usually doesn't matter; Freddie Freeman just smashes right-handed pitching. In 221 PA in 2020, Freeman has a .479 wOBA and .330 ISO, with a .372 AVG and 12 HR. Besides a variety of fastballs, Walker Buehler leans on his curve the most vs LHB (19% usage) but the pitch has allowed a .417 wOBA to them in 2020. Since 2016, Freeman has a .408 wOBA, .293 ISO, and 46% hard-hit rate versus curveballs. If you're going to pay a premium price, Freeman against a righty is always a good bet.
Chris Taylor - 2B, LAD vs LHP Max Fried ($3,800)
All Chris Taylor does versus LHP is hit lasers. He only has a 34.5% FB% but Taylor has a 34.5% line-drive rate that's the highest on the team and a 31% GB% that's the second-lowest. And these lasers are set to crush, not stun, with a 62.1% hard-hit rate that is the highest on the team by almost seven-points.
Dansby Swanson - SS, ATL vs RHP Walker Buehler ($4,200)
Like the rest of Atlanta's lineup, Swanson hits the snot out of the ball against right-handed pitching, with a 49.3% hard-hit rate that still only manages to be the fourth-highest on the team. Swanson has a .236 ISO and .367 wOBA vs RHP, while Buehler has had more trouble with righties this season, allowing a .326 wOBA compared to a .226 wOBA vs LHB. Whether for price or matchup, I don't love the shortstop options but think that Swanson could return a lot of value in a game that could be higher-scoring than people anticipate.
Justin Turner - 3B, LAD vs LHP Max Fried ($4,400)
Turner's lines weren't spectacular in the Dodgers series win over the Padres, going just 2-for-10, but he still filled up the stat sheet with walks, runs, and RBI, scoring a total of 28 points in three games. His .327 wOBA vs LHP is average but Turner has a 16.4% BB% and 81.8% contact-rate, with a 54.3% hard-hit rate that is the third-highest on the team. And while Fried succeeds against righties by getting them to pound his slider into the ground (60% GB%), Turner has just a 13% GB% against sliders thrown by LHP since 2016, with a 56.5% hard-hit rate.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Randy Arozarena - OF, TB vs RHP Lance McCullers ($4,500)
I may have recommended McCullers above but if you recall, " as long as McCullers can avoid giving up a home run to Randy Arozarena". Bet against Arozarena at your own risk, as the electric 26-year-old continues to take baseball by storm, hitting yet another home run in the Rays Game 1 victory over the Astros. The former Cardinal has hit home runs in four of his past six games and continues to be one of the safest bets in DFS.
AJ Pollock - OF, LAD vs LHP Max Fried ($3,900)
Pollock quietly had a renaissance in 2020 and hit for more power than ever, with 16 HR in just 210 PA. He hasn't gone deep in the postseason yet but went 3-for-7 in the Dodgers last two wins over the Padres, scoring a combined 24 points. In 63 PA vs LHP, Pollock has a .467 wOBA and a whopping .464 ISO, with a team-leading 55.6% hard-hit rate.
Josh Reddick - OF, HOU vs RHP Charlie Morton ($2,900)
Reddick didn't put up superb numbers vs RHP in 2020, posting a .272 wOBA and .109 ISO, but did have a team-high 47.8% FB%. Morton allowed a 42.9% FB% to LHP, attacking them with virtually only fastballs (48.6%) and curveballs (40%). That sets up well for Reddick, who has an 83.5% contact-rate and 41.3% hard-hit against curveball from RHP since 2016. And if small-sample BvP is your thing, then Reddick has gone 3-for-6 against Morton, scoring 19 points on DK.
Mookie Betts - OF, LAD vs LHP Max Fried ($5,200)
Let's have a bonus outfielder because while Betts hasn't been spectacular vs LHP this season (.293 wOBA, .053 ISO), he does have a 45.9% hard-hit rate against them and could be particularly well-suited to hammer Max Fried's pitch mix. Fried attacks RHB with a combined 43% sliders and curveballs, along with four-seamers and sinkers. Since the start of 2016, Betts has a .270 ISO and .425 wOBA against left-handed sliders, a 91.8% contact-rate and .305 wOBA vs curveballs, and a .410 wOBA and .207 ISO vs four-seamers in Fried's velocity typical velocity range of 93-94 mph.
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