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Determining Draft Strategy in Fantasy Baseball Rotisserie vs. Points Leagues Using "Teams in a Vacuum" Concept

Aaron Judge - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Does the difference in scoring systems for rotisserie vs. points leagues in fantasy baseball mean you should draft players in a different order? Glenn breaks it down using the "Teams in a Vacuum" (TIAV) concept.

What do the experts know? When it comes to rotisserie vs. points leagues, all the fantasy baseball podcasters discuss “drafting Player A in roto but Player B in points.”

Are rotisserie and points leagues really that different? Should you draft players in a different order depending on the scoring type?

To answer these questions, calculations are performed on a player basis for “players in a vacuum” analysis.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Rotisserie vs. Points Leagues Settings for Fantasy Baseball

The standard settings in rotisserie leagues keep track of 10 categories:

  • Batting -- runs, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, batting average
  • Pitching -- strikeouts, wins, saves, earned run average, (walks + hits)/number of innings pitched

Each team is awarded points depending on how their players finish in each category.  In a 12-team league, the best in each category is awarded 12 points, second place gets 11 points, etc.

The most common settings in points leagues award different points based on the category:

  • Batting
    • Single = 1 point
    • Walk = 1 point
    • Double = 2 points
    • Triple = 3 points
    • Home Run = 4 points
    • Run = 1 point
    • Run batted in = 1 point
    • Stolen base = 1 point
  • Pitching
    • Inning pitched = 1 point
    • Strikeout = 1 point
    • Win = 10 points
    • Save = 7 points

The categories are totaled for each team and multiplied by the corresponding category points.

 

Table 1 – 2023 Top-13 Drafted Players and Their Final Ranks

Rotisserie Leagues
Average Draft Position Name Position Rank Final Rank
1 Aaron Judge OF16 42
2 Trea Turner SS3 16
3 Jose Ramirez 3B4 28
4 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF1 1
5 Kyle Tucker OF4 4
6 Juan Soto OF6 10
7 Mookie Betts OF2 2
8 Julio Rodriguez OF3 3
9 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B7 40
10 Yordan Alvarez OF32 98
11 Corbin Burnes SP8 112
12 Freddie Freeman 1B2 7
13 Gerrit Cole SP1 72
Points Leagues
Average Draft Position Name Position Rank Final Rank
1 Aaron Judge OF27 62
2 Trea Turner SS3 18
3 Jose Ramirez 3B2 15
4 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF1 1
5 Kyle Tucker OF4 8
6 Juan Soto OF3 6
7 Mookie Betts OF2 4
8 Julio Rodriguez OF5 10
9 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B8 42
10 Yordan Alvarez OF24 57
11 Corbin Burnes SP19 207
12 Freddie Freeman 1B2 3
13 Gerrit Cole SP5 172

There are several observations from last year’s top players.

  • Using last year’s first-round average draft picks, you had a 50% chance of drafting a player worthy of the first round
  • Pitchers don’t finish near the top in either format
  • Outfielders dominated last year’s top players

To compare how players finished in the two leagues, what if you calculated player totals on a league basis rather than a team basis?  For rotisserie scoring, you take the top-100 batters and the top-100 pitchers (which represents the same number as the non-bench players in a 12-team league) and award category points based on how each player finished in each category.  For points scoring, you take each player's season statistics and calculate their totals.

 

Table 2 – Comparison of First-Round Finishers

Rotisserie Scoring Points Scoring Same First Round Players
Year Best Player Points Best Player Points
2017 Paul Goldschmidt 458 Giancarlo Stanton 1933 75%
2018 Jose Ramirez 464 Jose Ramirez 1875 100%
2019 Cody Bellinger 455 Cody Bellinger 1889 75%
2020 Fernando Tatis Jr. 466 Freddie Freeman 775 75%
2021 Jose Ramirez 459 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2708 75%
2022 Aaron Judge 470 Aaron Judge 2108 75%
2023 Ronald Acuna Jr. 472 Ronald Acuna Jr. 2202 75%
79% Average

Table 2 shows there are similarities between the two scoring systems, but they are not the same. Batting average is not a consideration in points leagues. Other than home runs, multi-base hits are not considered in roto leagues. This can make a big difference in a player’s rank.

To give a contrasting example, Kyle Schwarber had an outstanding year in 2023, scoring 108 runs, 47 home runs, 104 RBI, and 126 walks, which resulted in a 12th-place finish in points leagues. Because walks are not considered in rotisserie and he had no stolen bases, Schwarber’s stellar performance only got a 64th-place finish in roto leagues.

The last column in Table 2 summarizes the differences between the scoring systems concerning batters since they dominate the first round. If you throw out 2018 where the top-12 average draft positions finished in the top 12, roto and points leagues are 75% the same.

The website Statistica estimates that 12.5 million people play fantasy baseball. A quick calculation of the hundreds of public leagues over several fantasy baseball websites showed that leagues are split 70% roto/30% points.

The reason rotisserie is the dominant scoring system is due to the difficulty of tuning the parameters to make pitchers equal to batters in the points scoring system. Similar to defenses and kickers in fantasy football, awarding points for pitching statistics doesn’t translate as well as offensive statistics.

 

Table 3 – Top Pitcher Ranks

Rotisserie Scoring
Year Final Rank First Starting Pitcher Points Best Player Points
2017 64 Corey Kluber 371 Paul Goldschmidt 458
2018 27 Trevor Bauer 410 Jose Ramirez 464
2019 63 Justin Verlander 369 Cody Bellinger 455
2020 84 Shane Bieber 371 Fernando Tatis Jr. 466
2021 61 Max Scherzer 370 Jose Ramirez 459
2022 65 Justin Verlander 363 Aaron Judge 470
2023 72 Gerrit Cole 358 Ronald Acuna Jr. 472
Average 21st pick Second round in 12-team league
Points Scoring
Year Final Rank First Starting Pitcher Points Best Player Points
2017 105 Chris Sale 1094 Giancarlo Stanton 1933
2018 99 Max Scherzer 1080 Jose Ramirez 1875
2019 87 Gerrit Cole 1178 Cody Bellinger 1889
2020 77 Shane Bieber 446 Freddie Freeman 775
2021 207 Gerrit Cole 889 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2708
2022 123 Gerrit Cole 901 Aaron Judge 2108
2023 115 Spencer Strider 1043 Ronald Acuna Jr. 2202
Average 116th pick 10th round in 12-team league

If Table 2 showed batters finish within the same round of each other 75% of the time, Table 3 shows the top pitchers do not match between the leagues 100% of the time. In my previous article, I stated that you should not consider drafting a starting pitcher before the third round.

In a points league, you wouldn’t dream of it. If you are drafting in a points league, grab the best nine or 10 batters before considering a pitcher.

The top drafting tip in fantasy football is know your league settings referring to standard scoring versus point-per-reception. This directive is even more important in fantasy baseball.

Rotisserie and points scoring produce different results. The rotisserie scoring system attempts to have a level playing field with an equal number of categories between batters and pitchers. The points-scoring system makes no such concession; pitchers are treated like second-class citizens. Because rotisserie scoring is dominant, do not trust the draft tool’s player rankings when in a points league draft. If pitchers pop up before the 10th round, ignore them.

Are rotisserie and points leagues really that different? Between the two scoring systems, batters finish in the same round 75% of the time; pitchers finish rounds apart 100% of the time. Grab those batters first!



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