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Rick's deeper starting pitcher fantasy baseball sleepers, later-round picks going mostly undrafted in 2026 drafts. His favorite SP fliers for the end of drafts.
Fantasy managers can bank on undrafted pitchers coming out of nowhere to post outstanding seasons, but identifying who will do so is challenging. Standard roto leagues draft 336 players, so anyone with an NFBC average draft position (ADP) of 337 or higher is considered "undrafted" for this article. Naturally, individual drafts may vary.
You can get a lot of boring volume in this price range, with names like Brayan Bello (347.31), Mitch Keller (424.98), and Cade Cavalli (384.24) all qualifying and likely to hold rotation spots all season. These guys have uses (especially in deeper formats), but they aren't what we're looking for.
No, we're looking for upside: draft day afterthoughts who could be universally rostered by season's end. Here are five intriguing arms who are virtually free in fantasy baseball drafts. All ADP data is taken from NFBC drafts as of February 1.
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Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels
ADP - 324
Starting off this list is a pitcher who is nearly going undrafted. Soriano was decent last season, going 10-11 with a 4.26 ERA, 4.03 expected ERA (xERA), and 3.54 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) in 169 innings pitched (IP). You might not have noticed since he pitches for the Angels, and his 21 K% and 10.8 BB% don't jump off the page.
Soriano's peripherals are far more interesting than his surface-level stats. The 27-year-old features a five-pitch mix, including a sinker that occasionally touches triple digits, a knucklecurve, a split, a fastball (also reaching triple digits), and a slider.
Soriano's success last season is attributable to his sinker, which generated a 73.7% ground-ball rate that prevented batters from lifting nearly anything. Its 58.2% Zone% and 6.7% swinging-strike percentage (SwStr%) were also strong enough to serve as Soriano's primary pitch. The result was a 66% GB% overall, ranking in the 100th percentile. The sinker alone gives Soriano a solid floor.
The upside comes from his secondary pitches, which all generated huge SwStr% rates despite Soriano's overall lack of strikeouts. His knucklecurve generated a 15.4 SwStr% with a 45.1 Zone%, rendering its 20.5 chase% moot. His splitter posted a 19.1 SwStr%, though its 28.1 Zone% and 34.8 chase% lacked consistency.
His fastball was extremely effective for a sinkerballer, generating a 9.6 SwStr% and 56.9 Zone%. Finally, his slider was his best wipeout offering with a 21.2 SwStr%, 34.7 Zone%, and 39.6 chase%.
That's one outstanding sinker and four other pitches with above-average or better SwStr% rates. Does Soriano throw more heaters instead of sinkers to chase strikeouts? Does he lean into grounders instead? It isn't clear how the puzzle pieces fit together, but the pieces are so good that nearly any configuration should produce fantasy value.
The one weakness is that Soriano still pitches for the Angels, so wins might be hard to come by. The Angels also ranked last in outs above average (OAA) last season at -54, a whopping 21 worse than the 29th-place Washington Nationals. Fantasy managers should hope that the defense improves dramatically, even if it still ranks toward the bottom of the league.
Soriano offers several flavors of upside at age 27 that shouldn't be ignored at the end of drafts.
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
ADP - 350
Lopez was limited to one start in 2025 before arthroscopic surgery in his pitching shoulder ended his season. The good news is that the 32-year-old has a clean bill of health entering camp and will be in Atlanta's rotation to begin the season.
Assuming health, the upside here is obvious. Lopez was an All-Star in 2024, going 8-5 with a 1.99 ERA, 3.91 xERA, and 3.41 xFIP in 135 2/3 IP. He posted a 27.3 K% and 7.7 BB% with an arsenal that supported those lofty rates.
Lopez's fastball was just okay with a 6.5 SwStr%, but its 65.2 Zone% set up the rest of his pitches. His slider (20.8 SwStr%, 38.1 percent chase) and change (18.5 SwStr%, 38.9 percent chase) both served as excellent put-away offerings, while his curve (15.6 SwStr%, 32.9 percent chase) served as a third option, trading a lower 15.6 SwStr% and 32.9 chase% for a higher 42.6 Zone%.
Lopez isn't 1.99 ERA good, but all of the major projection systems call for about a strikeout per inning with an ERA that won't hurt you. The Braves should be better this year, too, giving him win potential.
Health is the only reason Lopez isn't being drafted, and he's so affordable that it doesn't matter. If he gets hurt, you've invested nothing and can easily move on to someone else. If he doesn't, you're looking at an SP3 at a great price.
Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds
ADP - 617
Lowder missed nearly the entire 2025 campaign following a right forearm/elbow injury in spring training and a severe left oblique strain in May, and rumors that he would help the Reds down the stretch proved unfounded. Like Lopez, Lowder has a clean bill of health in camp and even pitched in the Arizona Fall League.
Lowder made six MLB starts in 2024 and owns a 1.17 ERA, though his 17.2 K% and 10.9 BB% suggested he wasn't anywhere near that good. It was a small sample, and Lowder has a huge prospect pedigree as the seventh overall selection in the 2023 MLB Draft. Only Paul Skenes was selected before him among pitchers.
Lowder was also much better on the farm, posting a 23.8 K% and 5.6 BB% at Double-A over 77 1/3 IP that season. His 50.9 GB% at this level is essential, given how homer-happy his home park is, making Lowder playable at home.
The 24-year-old is being drafted after other prospects such as Andrew Painter (430.03) and Thomas White (538.45), but both have warts. Painter struggled to put hitters away last season, sending his K% tumbling. White needs to refine his control and may not debut at all in 2026.
Lowder probably won't open the season in Cincinnati's rotation, but he's pretty clearly the first guy up when injury strikes. The contending Reds should give him a chance to stick as soon as that happens. Lowder also has MLB success already, something most other prospects lack.
You don't need to draft Lowder, but he's a great watchlist candidate who should be claimed off waivers as soon as he's called up.
Anthony Kay, Chicago White Sox
ADP - 672
Who? Anthony Kay is a 31-year-old lefty with a career 5.59 ERA in 85 1/3 MLB IP. He spent the last two seasons refining his game in Japan, coming back to North America on a two-year, $12 million deal with the White Sox.
To say that Kay was successful in Japan would be an understatement. He posted a 3.42 ERA and 2.90 xFIP over 136 2/3 IP in 2024, posting a 53.6 GB%, 20.2 K%, and 9.0 BB%. He was even better last season, posting a 1.74 ERA and 2.53 xFIP over 155 IP with a 21.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, and 55.8 GB%.
That K% might seem low, but it ranked in the 78th percentile in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) last season. Moreover, Kay's repertoire appears primed to get big leaguers out:
His fastball isn't very good, but his cutter performed like a great fastball, while his slider and change generate swing-and-miss. His sinker might be the most interesting piece with its 85.9 GB%, allowing Kay to induce a grounder whenever he wants. This pitch mix makes Kay a viable streamer in most formats.
However, there's also room for improvement. Kay could shelve his fastball in favor of more cutters and sinkers, overcoming the "weak fastball, good secondaries" archetype to become a more complete pitcher. MLB hitters whiff more often than their Japanese counterparts, and heavy sinkers are great in homer-happy parks.
With a guaranteed two-year contract in hand, the White Sox should give Kay a long leash even if he struggles initially. It's not the best supporting cast, but the Pale Hose are trending in the right direction with actual upside on the roster now. The AL Central is also weak, giving pitchers more favorable matchups than any other division.
Kay would be a great story if he becomes a viable major leaguer at 31, and fantasy managers could profit from it.
Jedixson Paez, Chicago White Sox
ADP - 750
Paez was the second overall pick in this year's Rule 5 draft, meaning the White Sox have to keep him on the MLB roster or offer him back to the Red Sox. He's something of an unknown, having missed four months last season with a right calf injury and never pitching at Double-A.
Here's the scouting report on Paez:
The fastball isn't great, but it's improved substantially since he was first signed. Back then, he topped out at 85 mph. Last year, he sat at 91 and topped out at 94, giving him something resembling MLB velocity even if he's still below-average. If it ticks upward again, he could have a real weapon.
That would be huge, as Paez has four MLB-caliber secondaries. None of them are traditional out pitches, but it works since he has superlative command of a bunch of pitch shapes to keep hitters off-balance.
K-BB% is widely considered one of the best single metrics to measure pitching performance, and Paez has been outstanding at every MiLB stop:
He's never faced advanced competition, but his K-BB% improves from complex ball (at the top) to High-A (on the bottom). He walks no one, forcing hitters to hit their way on base. He also gets punchouts, so he's not totally reliant on his defense.
Paez generates swing-and-miss as well. Since he graduated from complex ball in 2023, here are his SwStr% marks at every stop: 14.3, 16.7, 17.8, 11.8. The downturn last year is attributable to a delivery change that he didn't master before getting hurt, and the White Sox might just tell him to go back to his previous one.
Paez also keeps the ball on the ground. Since 2023, the highest FB% Paez allowed at a single MiLB stop is 31.9%, meaning he's well-equipped to pitch in power-friendly stadiums like Guaranteed Rate Field.
Paez has to be on the MLB roster if the White Sox want to keep him, and he checks every box for fantasy managers. He gets strikeouts, he generates swing-and-miss, he limits walks, and keeps the ball on the ground. The whole profile is reminiscent of Shane Bieber, and he has a Cy Young Award on his mantle.
The White Sox aren't the best supporting cast, and Paez's role is up in the air, but he was a starter on the farm, and Chicago isn't exactly overloaded with quality rotation options. Paez could make a much larger splash than your typical Rule 5 pick.
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