RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Palmetto Championship At Congaree. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Palmetto Championship At Congaree
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Congaree Golf Club
7,685 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda
A one-year replacement for the RBC Canadian Open, Congaree Golf Club looks like an intriguing golf course that should test players in South Carolina. From a scheduling standpoint, I can't say slotting the first-time PGA Tour track the week before the U.S. Open provided golfers with much of a reason to show up to see the 39th ranked golf course in America, according to Golf Digest, but it is hard to blame anyone involved with the COVID-19 challenges complicating the entire process.
The first thing that stuck out to me when starting my research was the jarring 7,685-yard measurement, and while distance on paper doesn't always equal actual yardage, I read a few things that made me believe length may be more prominent than other long venues. Wide fairways and virtually no rough always will benefit the bombers, and forced carries over waste areas should only amplify the notion for distance. Greens appear to be on the larger side of things, which usually diminishes approach play and around the green metrics, but I believe Congaree might turn into a bomb-and-short game contest because of the frim/fast putting surfaces protected by undulation and bunkers located above and below the greens. Those two factors will enhance sand save percentage and strokes gained around the green, and I anticipate it being a challenge for players to get up and down from the wrong area.
As is always the case on anything above a Par-70 track, par-five birdie or better percentage will weigh heavily - even if it is reduced slightly with their being one less hole - and the ability to putt from off the surface will make three-putt avoidance another tangible way to attack the whole short game narrative. Proximity from 200+ yards is my preferred way to put in approach game metrics, and I think ball-striking isn't a horrible look since it will be vital for golfers to attack pins from the correct angle because of the difficulty of holding the greens from certain directions.
Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Congaree | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | N/A | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | N/A | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | N/A | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | N/A | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 8/1 and is followed by Brooks Koepka at 9/1, Tyrrell Hatton at 14/1, Matthew Fitzpatrick at 18/1 and Sungjae Im at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Weighted Proximity 175+ Yards 15%
- Weighted Distance + GIR 15%
- Sand Save Percentage 15%
- Overall Birdie or Better 15%
- Strokes Gained Tee To Green 15%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%
- ATG+Fast/Firm 12.5%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Tyrrell Hatton ($10,200) - The cheapest of the group, Tyrrell Hatton brings the best floor to the party of the $10,000 options. The Englishman is the only choice with a cut-streak of at least two tournaments (five in total), and it doesn't hurt matters that Hatton grades first in this field in strokes gained approach and second in three-putt percentage.
- Most Upside: Dustin Johnson ($11,400) - Dustin Johnson could fit this moniker weekly, but the results haven't quite followed in recent starts, as the 36-year-old has sputtered with seven straight finishes outside of the top-10. When I remove recency bias from my model and look at just statistical data, which does feature a decent amount of current stats, Johnson climbs up to the second-best player for this venue, making him an expensive GPP target to take a shot on at marginally lowered ownership. Don't expect DJ under 10%, but early returns do have him as the low-man on the $10,000 totem pole.
- Favorite GPP Play: Brooks Koepka ($11,100) - I don't think you get a ton of great leverage opportunities with the popularity that the entire group brings to the table, but Brooks Koepka is the only one that shows up as a positive expected value when comparing my overall rank to his ownership rank.
- Fade: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,400) - I want to preface this statement by saying that I don't dislike Matthew Fitzpatrick to the point where I believe he can't compete in this tournament but being the third-priced option on the board is where I draw the line. Maybe a flukey event is where Fitzpatrick finally gets over the hurdle and captures his first PGA Tour title, but I am willing to let him beat me when he is priced inside the top-three names for the week.
- Most Likely Winner: Brooks Koepka ($11,100)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Patton Kizzire ($9,100) - The board starts taking a turn for the worse in this $9,000 section, so we need to be careful in how we attack the slate. Patton Kizzire's two top-three finishes before his missed cut at the Memorial is helping the 108th-ranked player in the world get a slight boost in my model, but Kizzire holds his own from a statistical perspective - ranking 12th overall in that metric.
- Most Upside: Sungjae Im - ($9,700) - It is hard to love where Sungjae Im's game is trending after missing three cuts in his last four starts, but perhaps the return to Bermuda will be just what the doctor ordered. Im should have the scoring ability to pick apart Congaree if this plays easier than some might expect - evident by placing inside the top-10 for both par-five birdie or better percentage and overall birdie or better rate. There is volatility here, which makes Im a GPP only target, but you will have to decide if you are fine paying his nearly 15 percent ownership projection.
- Favorite GPP Play: Harris English ($9,900) - My model is always much higher on Harris English's chances than the rest of the industry, and we stick to that tune again for the Palmetto Championship. English comes in ranked third in overall rank on my PGA DFS Rankings Wizard, and his 19th place ownership total on Monday has him as the best GPP value I can find in this range.
- Fade: None -Ian Poulter ($9,200) - Perhaps there is some strategy to be made that Ian Poulter warrants consideration in cash-game contests, but GPP builds are going to be made by me without the 57th-ranked golfer in the world included in my player pool. Poulter's short game should come in handy at Congaree, but it is hard to justify paying the eighth-highest total on a golfer ranked 58th when it comes to his total fit for the event - even if he does climb to a more respectable 22nd when I look at just safety.
- Most Likely Winner: Harris English ($9,900)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Alex Noren ($8,900), Lucas Glover ($8,600) - A realistic case can be had that cramming both Alex Noren and Lucas Glover into cash-game builds should produce one of the more optimal starting routes you can find in South Carolina. Combined, the duo has made 15 of the last 16 cuts, with the only blemish coming when Glover missed the cut on the number at the Wells Fargo Championship.
- Most Upside: I don't love the GPP upside in this territory. I prefer a boom-or-bust mentality, where I use the $8,000 section to fill out cash-game builds
- Favorite GPP Play: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,300) - With everything I just stated in the previous section, Jhonattan Vegas will make my core because of his ability to dominate off the tee. My belief is that the wide fairways and non-penal rough should enhance ball-strikers that rely on distance, and we see that with him grading eighth in my weighted distance+GIR combined category that I made.
- Fade: Russell Knox ($8,200) - Russell Knox's upside is questionable, and his safety doesn't necessarily bring home confidence either. Knox feels like he is trending in the wrong direction, and it should show where the books are at with him being listed as an underdog to Kevin Kisner, who doesn't have better than a 40th-place finish in his last five tournaments.
- Most Likely Winner: Jhonattan Vegas ($8,300)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Pat Perez ($7,700), Vincent Whaley ($7,700)
- Ownership is trending towards most DFS gamers rostering Pat Perez and Vincent Whaley, but I am perfectly content playing the above duo in cash-game builds. Martin Laird ($7,800) is another golfer grading out as safe for me, but I think there is enough upside with him to target GPP contests at his eight percent total.
- Most Upside: Seamus Power ($7,500)
- Favorite GPP Play: Seamus Power ($7,500) - It is Seamus Power week - at least according to my model. I want to note that some of my data on him is a little outdated, and he is getting the full benefit of everything because the long-term numbers and short-term numbers are better than his middle ground of averages, but the perfect storm has been created that is showing Power has perhaps the best value in this field. In fact, I had to reduce my projections on the Irish golfer by nearly 50% to get him into a more reasonable zone, which is still the fourth-ranked player in the event. We will see if this turns out to be an aberrational outlier, but this exact scenario did occur for the Valero Open a few years when my model couldn't understand how Corey Conners (250/1) wasn't one of the favorites. We all know how that turned out!
- Fade: Peter Uihlein ($7,300)
- Most Likely Winner: Seamus Power ($7,500) - The luck of the Irish has to mean something here.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
- Safest Play: Hank Lebioda ($6,900)
- Most Upside: John Pak ($6,900) - Fourth-ranked amateur in the world. Came in a share of 51st at the 2020 U.S. Open. There is going to be volatility, but Pak has shown major upside.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tyler McCumber ($6,800) - Expect an up-and-down nature, but McCumber's length could be a key for him at Congaree.
Fade: Chase Seiffert ($6,500)
Win Big With RotoBaller
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